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Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Raceway Selections: Wednesday, March 24, 2021

Bet Now > Tips from the Pros > Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Raceway Selections: Wednesday, March 24, 2021

Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Raceway Selections: Wednesday, March 24, 2021

March 24, 2021
By Melissa Keith
Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Raceway Selections: Wednesday, March 24, 2021
Best Bet - (1) IDOLIZE – Race 9
Spot Play - (5) PLAYFULL ELEGANCE – Race 8
20-cent Early Pick 5 – Race 1 - 3,4,5/3,4,7/4,7/3/1,6,8 = $10.80
20-cent Late Pick 5 – Race 6 - 1,2,5/5,6/1,4,5,6,8/1/1,2,8 = $18.00
20-cent Early Pick 4 – Race 4 – 3/1,6,8 /1,2,5/5,6 = $3.60
20-cent Late Pick 4 – Race 8 – 1,4,5,6,8/1/8/1,2,5,7,9 = $5.00


Race 1 – (3) SAULSBROOK KAISEN's one 2020 victory was a 1:54.3 gate-to-wire effort for owner/trainer/driver Jean Rene Plante at Flamboro Dec. 8; he's the fastest winner of this field on a half, but not a frequent winner; feeling crowded going into the first turn here last Tuesday, he briefly jumped it off and was set back from second to seventh for creating interference; came on to challenge Sam McKee Hanover in battle to the wire that race; racing Lasix-free this month; class drop tonight. (4) BET THE LIMIT did not race when he was a London also-eligible March 17; that gave him an extra week off following his mile-and-1/16 distance Western Fair win March 10; like the top choice here, he's light on career wins, but has been better in every start this year for driver Scott Wray, who seemingly chose him over #6 Dover Seelster. (5) LIVIN ONA DREAM is making his 2021 pari-mutuel comeback this race, for latest catch driver Tyler Borth; qualified at this track March 18, finishing second in 2:02.2 personal mile; a London 15000clmcd winner Oct. 14 in a lifetime-best 1:59.4.
 
Race 2 – (4) MOVIN TO THE TOP is winless in eight starts; however, she was competing in Ontario Sires Stakes last year, and finds class/post relief with regular reinsman Bruce Richardson tonight; draws second-best Western Fair post position for trotters; fourth in Mohawk qualifier March 18, she appears steadier-gaited than some rivals this race. (3) HOT FUDGE SUNDAE could be a hot mess if he breaks again; cautious support for lone four-year-old male in this field is based on Alfie Carroll driving, helpful post position, class drop, and a runner-up finish in March 18 qualifier at The Raceway, second only to Kingofbrokenhearts, the one pacer. First pari-mutuel start for (7) LARRYS GIRL; she stayed calm and flat when another trotter broke immediately ahead on her in a March 18 Mohawk qualifier; owned and driven by Bob McClure, this filly never threatened leaders but delivered a co-fastest 29.2 last quarter, finishing third and keeping three-plus lengths ahead of LMC Smores (fourth in qualifier; #1 this race).
 
Race 3 – (4) LITTLEBITASWAGGER lands new catch driver Austin Sorrie, right after stalking and charging home from third for Scott Coulter in a perfectly-timed March 14 win at Flamboro; he had the advantage of being unaffected by breaker Shadow of Lindy, who briefly created interference among the backfield; class-dropping half-mile-track specialist did not race at Western Fair in 2020; a good start to 2021 with two wins so far, his fastest a 1:56.1 stalking trip at Northfield Feb. 8. (7) ART OF FIRE overcame this post at this level for driver Tyler Moore and owner/trainer Stew MacQueen March 17, winning in first 2021 London start after recording a win and a place at Mohawk last month; late speed. (2) MISTER J R was third in his last race at Western Fair, Feb. 17 at added distance; that was before he teamed up with JR Plante for a three-race March win streak at Flamboro; dangerous on the front end, he faces class hike; likely has to deal with one or both of this race's top-two selections late in the mile, where a 30-second last quarter won't produce a win tonight. 
 
Race 4 – (3) WYND CREEK has a recent resume unmatched by anyone in this race; determined closer and regular dance partner Colin Kelly were fourth at Western Fair's Nw50000lcd classification Feb. 14, but that was the mare's first start of 2021; she has gone undefeated in three subsequent starts, by widening winning margins while climbing class ladder at this track and Flamboro; this is not a great post position for London trotters so far this season, but everything else is in her favour. (2) MR ARCH looks sharp; has closed on class-climb for progressively better results this month in three starts at this track for Alfie Carroll; he has drawn to immediate inside of Wynd Creek in their March 10 and 17 match-ups, yet been unable to match strides with the mare in the stretch despite trotting a field's-fastest 30-second closing quarter last week. (7) LOS BALLYKEELAMIGO and Bob McClure draw tough post; he's the other six-time 2020 winner in this light-on-recent-wins group; on the shelf since last November's Harvest Series at Mohawk, this race marks the four-year-old class-dropper's 2021 comeback (no qualifiers); four wins at four different Ontario half-mile tracks, for three different drivers, in Prospect Series last season; none of them were at The Raceway, where he finished fourth in his only 2020 London try Oct. 9.
 
Race 5 – (6) A POSITIVE HANOVER finished second despite having the outside post position at Western Fair's Nw1500l3cd level March 17; owner/trainer/driver Don Rankin Jr. wisely opted to follow the now-absent 1/9 favourite Brocks Fortune in a cautious trip; intriguingly, he paced a field's-co-fastest 28.2 last quarter chasing down the dominant front-running winner; up in class. (8) BETTOR CAT didn't care for trailing post at Flamboro on March 14; he was also up in class to Nw3000l3cd, which could account for sixth-place finish in third consecutive start with Lasix; class relief tonight puts him back at similar classification to his March 7 near-win at Flamboro Nw1500l3cd for Jean Rene Plante; he won't find similar front-end trip from second tier, however. (1) MO BETTOR is up in class, but with winningest Western Fair post for pacers and Austin Sorrie back in the bike; none of his four wins last year were at this track, but he hit board in 13 of 29 races; show finish here March 1 was at lower Nw1500l3cd classification, stalking Artistic Pick top opening quarter from pocket, looking live but boxed in on last turn. (3) TAKE THE DEAL was third at Flamboro for Scott Coulter Dec. 13; tonight, is his first race (or qualifier) of the new year, with trainer Guy Gagnon in the sulky; a Rideau Carleton Preferred Handicap winner last July, this gelding made no additional half-mile track starts in 2020 besides that single show effort at Flamboro. (4) LET ME SEE was badly parked out in his seasonal debut in London 15000clmcd event March 3; he and driver Garrett Rooney try again from same post, against higher-level competition.
 
Race 6 – (1) ACEFORTYFOURTALON had just one win last year, but he got it at The Raceway; that victory was over a "good" surface Jan. 14 for Brett MacDonald;  in tonight's Seniors' Pace, the ten-year-old teams up with catch driver Travis Henry for class drop and winningest London post; Henry's apparent choice over #8 Oldfriendskentucky; in that long-ago most recent win, he challenged for the lead first-over at the opening quarter, took command, and never backed down; the place finisher was...(2) ANOTHER GREAT PICK, who moves up in class this race; owner/trainer/driver Ross Battin's 11-year-old last won Nov. 6 at this track, closing from fifth to overtake pacesetter Shadow Margeaux; the richest and winningest (three wins) veteran of tonight's field could upset top choice. (5) LAWMEN REIGN is the 14-year-old stablemate of #2 Another Great Pick; Don Rankin Jr. is back aboard pacer who closed in field's-second-fastest 29.1 for place; got involved third-over from sixth at the half last start, following his stablemate, then outdueling him behind Leafs and Wings in the stretch.
 
Race 7 – (5) POWER AND GRACE looks to avenge last week's loss to Veyron (#6 this race) in Western Fair March 16 Preferred-2 Handicap; she pocketed up behind the now-absent Derf Hanover when that post #6 leaver crossed over right off the gate for Doug McNair, then got covered up and shuffled back to fourth along pylons when Veyron tipped out of third en route to the three-quarters; lone mare had to go around Derf Hanover when he broke directly ahead of her turning for the stretch; came home in field's-fastest 28.4. (6) VEYRON was uncatchable after even-money fave Derf Hanover broke late in March 16 match-up here; fourth from this London post position against similar class March 8 for catch driver Travis Henry, regular pilot J Harris returns again tonight. (3) WILLYORWONTHE was a winning 2/5 favourite at this track's Preferred-3 level March 16, wiring rivals by a widening five open lengths; he's up in class tonight, and front-end-loving gelding may have to battle #2 Sicario for early advantage, then deal with the late speed of the outside pair; Colin Kelly stays loyal to three-time 2020 winner who recorded all those victories at last week's classification, here (twice) and Flamboro.
 
Race 8 – (5) PLAYFULL ELEGANCE had the #7-hole March 17, closing for fifth up the pylons in an unambitious trip at Western Fair Nw25000lcd classification; note that she trotted home in the field's-fastest 29.2 for regular pilot Tyler Borth, and finds both class and post relief tonight; a trio of four-time 2020 winners are in this group, but she's the only one to have gone without breaking stride at London this month. (1) JAYPORT HI CLASS will pounce if anyone else makes a miscue; class-dropper draws rail for trainer/driver Greg Dustin; only one win, yet hit board in 10 of 15 starts last year, mostly at his home track. (8) BLACK SEVEN starts from second tier following March 17 upset victory at this track's Nw12000lcd classification; now up in class, after that lifetime-best 2:02.3 seasonal debut with owner/trainer/driver George Ketros in the bike; wondering what's next after that 8/1 neck-margin victory over Lavecs Muscle Girl.
 
Race 9 – (1) IDOLIZE and Lorne House closed for fourth here last Wednesday, despite a tough overland trip; seventh in the early going, he was moving third-over, second from last, past the half; kept advancing as his cover stalled, chasing home front-end winner Brocks Fortune; light 2020 resume, because he fell in an August 1 start at Sarnia and did not make any further pari-mutuel starts last season; this six-year-old gelding has history at London: In 2019, he won over this track twice in off-the-pace efforts for Brett MacDonald, and took his 1:57.4 record in a Grand River qualifier the same year; last Jan. 27, he won at The Raceway's Nw50000l classification, in similar style. (3) ON CRUISE CONTROL drops down in class in 2021 debut for JR Plante; races better on/near front end, as he did in last victory at Mohawk, Dec. 17; his three 2020 victories were all at that venue; half-mile track could be disadvantage for gelding who finished fifth at Western Fair last Nov. 18, trying things from off the pace for Tyler Moore. (5)  EASY FLYER also gets class relief; Colin Kelly stays with six-time 2020 winner who was parked here March 17, ending up seventh facing Nw1500l3cd company.
 
Race 10 – (8) MODERN WRITER has exceeded expectations this year, and keeps exceeding them; a winner of all but one of his five starts (he finished second by a length to the now-absent Lobel Bruiser at Flamboro Feb. 21), there is no reason to doubt him from the second tier; class drop; retains Colin Kelly. (2)  R THINKING MONSTER was a beaten 3/5  fave here March 17, starting from the rail with latest catch driver Travis Henry aboard; while an unreliable top choice, he hit the board in roughly half his 29 races last year; top-two finisher here March 10 and 17 at 15000clmcd level for Henry; up in class. Trotting-bred pacer (1) THUNDER ROMPS lived up to his name in Western Fair added-distance 15000clmcd event last week; wired rivals in a going-away win for Austin Sorrie; with two late-2020 victories at this track, owner/trainer Courtney Robson's class-climbing gelding clearly enjoys The Raceway, but his speed on a half has not yet matched that of #8 Modern Writer.
 
Race 11 – (1) KINGOFBROKENHEARTS romped to a 12-plus-length victory in a March 18 London qualifier; yes, it was over trotters in a mixed-gait tightener, but Tyler Borth is back to drive class-dropper from inside post; his five 2020 victories make him second-winningest of anyone in this field last year; closed at 10/1 odds at this track's 15000clmcd level Nov. 4 for his most recent pari-mutuel 1:56.1 win...from post #7; was second Dec. 9 at added distance. (9) PASSIONATE PRINCE trails but retains driver Paul MacKenzie, who looks to have chosen him over #4 Upgrade Alley; finished fifth for same driver at the usual mile March 17, as beaten 2/1 fave; that was also from a second-tier position; should make more impact with extra 1/16 of a mile in another off-the-pace effort; finished third at tonight's distance last Oct. 14. (2)  LARJON LUCKY hit the board in 19 of 30 races last year; Garrett Rooney stays loyal to class-climbing closer who finished fourth Oct. 14 in last attempt at added distance. (7) ROYAL SHIP was second by a neck Dec. 10 for catch driver Louis-Phillipe Roy, filling in for owner/trainer/tonight's driver Dale Fritz; improbable post position for gelding's 2021 comeback race, but closed for fourth at London mile-and-1/16 Nov. 20... at odds of 40/1. (5)  JULIAN I AM changes things up with tonight's driver change to Alfie Carroll; going-away winning mile here Dec. 20 for Andy Moore; second at odds of 17/1 from rail Nov. 18 at tonight's distance for Moore.

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Melissa Keith is a lifelong harness handicapper/bettor, Hervey/O'Brien Media Excellence Award-winning writer, and occasional racecaller. She is a contributor to TROT, Hoof Beats, Atlantic Post Calls, and Harness Racing Update, often covering topics related to wagering. Her most memorable bets include taking down the Truro Raceway Pick-7 pool for a $36 investment (it has not been offered since) and collecting $1,287 for a Woodbine Harness Pick-4 which cost a whopping $1.60.   
 

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