Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Raceway Selections: Tuesday, January 28, 2020

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Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Raceway Selections: Tuesday, January 28, 2020

January 28, 2020
By Melissa Keith
Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Raceway Selections: Tuesday, January 28, 2020
Best Bet – (3) – GREYSTONE NATALI O – Race 7
Spot Play – (5) – WOODMERE WYLDSTYLE – Race 1
20-cent Early Pick 4 – Race 3 –3,6/1,4/1,4/4,5,7,8, = $6.40
20-cent Late Pick 4 – Race 7 – 3,4/3,4,5/3,6,7/1,2,8 = $10.80

 
Race 1 – (5) WOODMERE WYLDSTYLE was beaten favourite from post #7 on Jan. 21, battling Twenty Three Red to the co-fastest opening quarter (28.0) of the night before getting shuffled back; front-end-loving mare was loaded with pace once she shook loose late. (7) ADDITUDE dead-heated for fifth against similar group last Tuesday night; she came home in 30.3 in game effort from the back of the pack—the fastest in the field. (1) INSINCERITY has weakened late in recent performances, but helpful draw puts her in better spot to put closing kick to good use.
 
Race 2 – (5) BURLESQUE SEELSTER is another beaten favourite, surfacing at lower classification; has hit board in every start of 2020 for driver Alfie Carroll, who is in the bike tonight; took 2:00.4 lifetime best mark at Western Fair Jan. 7. (1) DOLLYS SKY arrives from Flamboro with a string of top-3 performances, including a 1:59.0 lifetime best on Jan. 5; driver Brett MacDonald is aboard, who also reined #2 Origami Seelster to 3 consecutive place finishes. (2) ORIGAMI SEELSTER is in capable hands of Robert Shepherd tonight, looking to capitalize on a good draw and second recent start at this class level; expect strong closing effort.
 
Race 3 – (3) VALENTINE DELIGHT delivered a show finish from post #7 in last at same level (Jan. 21), her final quarter timed in a quick 30.1; should improve this week as she lands advantageous post position. (6) CANT THINK delivered as popular favourite last outing, winning in gate-to-wire style from post #1; it’s unclear if she can repeat that maiden-breaking victory from further out, although Marc St. Louis Jr. is likely to put her into good position again early in the race. (2) SPARKLE FARKLE has yet to hit the board in a pari-mutuel race, although she closed in 30.1 against this group last Tuesday night; she’s one of the faster fillies here and draws well, but needs to mind manners consistently at start.
 
Race 4 – (1) STONEBRIDGE STING took charge early on Jan. 21 from identical inside post, setting the pace with a sizzling 28.0 opening quarter; although he faded to third late in the mile, there are no clear late-speed horses ready to spoil front-end trip tonight. (4) BUNKHOUSE BRAWL is also likely to be fast off the gate, a tactic that produced a going-away victory for him and Nicholas Steward on Dec. 17 at same level. (2) SANDYS CANDY raced third-over from the halfway point of added-distance race on Jan. 21, ending up sixth; reunited with Brett MacDonald tonight for what looks like a good shot at his third show finish in four starts this year.
 
Race 5 – (4) ALYSSA MARIE is reunited with Scott Coulter, who reined the mare to her first seasonal victory Jan. 6; recent class relief was offset by extended first-over grind for this beaten favourite on Jan. 20. (1) STONEBRIDGE LOYAL looks likely to take command quickly for Marc St. Louis Jr., a winning strategy for the pair in mare’s last victory (Nov. 25); she left hard from post #7 and pocketed up Jan. 6, unable to match strides with Alyssa Marie when asked. (5) CHEEKY CHERRY moves up in class and gets best post position for London pacers, after a going-away Jan. 17 victory for Tyler Borth; unlikely to outsprint top 2 picks for early lead, her quick closing quarters still suggest a top-3 finish here.
 
Race 6 – (4) VINTAGE SMILE is a hard closer who finished sixth from second-tier in Jan. 13 effort at mile-and-1/16; less traffic from this post for mare who narrowly missed winning at mile on Jan. 20. (5) BEARY YU VON followed the first-over Moramappo in Jan. 13 mile-and-1/16 event; game in three-wide bid for show spot. (7) MORAMAPPO and Marc St. Louis Jr. should be able to cross over and find early position  from outer post; place finish resulted when they went first over at added distance on Jan. 13. (8) REDHOT N SPORTY has posted some fast miles, but has not hit board in recent attempts at higher classification; class relief and catch driver Scott Coulter help her chances tonight. (2) GODRO MACHINE is usually gaining on rivals in the stretch, so it’s not a stretch to see her liking the added distance tonight, but tough to envision dominance.
 
Race 7 – (3) GREYSTONE NATALI O has been nothing but impressive for trainer/driver Brent Belore in last 4 starts at London; 3-year-old opened up on rivals for a 1:58.4 lifetime best Jan. 21 in this class. (4) MOCODRA is a 4-year-old who was beaten favourite at same level Jan. 21; J Harris returns to sulky in his first of just 2 drives tonight. (1) LYDIAS LIBERTY is another 3-year-old in mixed-age company here; possesses dangerous late speed, although her best results have been at Flamboro.
 
Race 8 – (3) CASIMIR SWAMP GIRL’s eye-catching recent form at mile has made post position and track condition irrelevant; a slight edge over #4 Fresh Eyes because of familiarity with London oval and a greater win percentage. (4) FRESH EYES arrives fresh from Woodbine Mohawk Park’s Niagara Series and a 1:55.2 gate-to-wire victory Jan. 9 at Flamboro; anticipating front-end battle with #3 Casimir Swamp Girl, who narrowly gets the nod. (5) FAMILY FIRST and J Harris closed for third against similar field on Jan. 21 at double-digit odds; versatile but seems unlikely to challenge this race’s top 2 selections.
 
Race 9 – (7) JOEYS KID finished second from post #6 in Jan. 14 start at this level in London; hasn’t had success against $7000 claimers at Flamboro, but addition of Colin Kelly suggests better result on tonight’s return to Western Fair. (3) REBEL SOLDIER lands catch driver Robert Shepherd for second consecutive race; showed good speed in 19 Jan. start at Flamboro. (6) SHARK OUTTA WATER managed to grab show money against $7000 claimers Dec. 3 and 17 at The Raceway; could be put into play in second consecutive start with Marc St. Louis Jr. in the bike, at return to mile distance. 
 
Race 10 – (1) SPORTY TORI drops from Preferred-2 level for trainer/driver Gorden McKnight; winningest pacer in bunch was beaten favourite in previous 2 races, but second-placed-first at identical distance Jan. 14. (2) BOURBON SEELSTER has a show and a place finish in her most recent Preferred-3 events at mile-and-1/16 distance; Ryan Holliday replaces Garret Rooney in the bike tonight. (8) PHOOS GIRL is the field’s other recent Preferred-2 mare, impossible to dismiss after pair of added-distance victories for Danielle and Marc St. Louis Jr. on Dec. 26 and Jan. 14; second-tier post position adds element of uncertainty, although the Dec. 26 win was off-the-pace effort from post #9. (5) ALPHABET QUEEN finished third at added distance in a Jan. 14 conditioned race for Brett MacDonald, and then recorded a place finish Jan. 21 at the typical mile; solid recent results and form make her a contender here. (4) CAYO LOCO’s driver is Garrett Rooney, who went wire-to-wire with her in winning Dec. 17 Preferred-3 at the mile distance; extra 1/16 raises questions, however.

Photo by John Watkins

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Melissa Keith is a lifelong harness handicapper/bettor, Hervey/O'Brien Media Excellence Award-winning writer, and occasional racecaller. She is a contributor to TROT, Hoof Beats, Atlantic Post Calls, and Harness Racing Update, often covering topics related to wagering. Her most memorable bets include taking down the Truro Raceway Pick-7 pool for a $36 investment (it has not been offered since) and collecting $1,287 for a Woodbine Harness Pick-4 which cost a whopping $1.60. 

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