Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Raceway Selections: Friday, January 31, 2020

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Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Raceway Selections: Friday, January 31, 2020

January 31, 2020
By Melissa Keith
Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Raceway Selections: Friday, January 31, 2020
Best Bet – (2) – KINDA LIKE HER– Race 9
Spot Play – (2) – SO LONG SUGAR -- Race 2
20-cent Early Pick 4 – Race 3 – 1,7/2,6,7/2,4,7/8,9 = $7.20
20-cent Late Pick 4 – Race 7 – 1,5/1,6/2,3/5,6,8,9 = $6.40

 
Race 1 – (6) JORDAN BELLFORT recorded his maiden-breaking victory Dec. 20 at Western Fair, leading from gate to wire; while having some trouble with breaks since then, he looks to be the lone leaver here and has trainer Larry Kestle in the sulky after a good qualifier together at Flamboro. (3) MACKJUSTICE has been on best behaviour for trainer/driver Brent Belore since Jan. 6 London qualifier, hitting the board in last 2 starts; 4-year-old maiden went first over at the half Jan. 24, trotting home gamely in the slop for place money. (5) FORGED IN FIRE followed Mack Justice second over last Friday night, tipping 3-wide for Travis Henry at the ¾; while he tired in the stretch and settled for the show spot, it was a promising first career start for the beaten favourite.
 
Race 2 – (2) SO LONG SUGAR has been fizzling against $8500 claimers recently, so class relief puts her in better spot to shine as pacesetter tonight; Nat Day drives the field’s winningest mare of 2019, seemingly choosing her over #5 Zarkana. (1) SCOTTISH LIGHT has been in strong form, recording a win and a place finish at the $7000 claiming level in last 2 starts; inside post position helps Patrick Bissett trainee find early spot near front, a helpful strategy lately. (6) DESTINY CRUISE was third for Danielle and Marc St. Louis Jr. on Feb. 24, getting leg-weary after cutting most of the mile in sloppy conditions; outer post means she will have to cross over quickly for shot at favoured front-end trip.
 
Race 3 – (1) MUSCLES APLENTY was a going-away front-end London winner Jan. 17 for Robert Shepherd; class drop and inside draw for half-mile track specialist on the rebound from seventh-place result at Mohawk.  (7) SETTING DAY is still in search of that first Ontario victory; a frequent disappointment to this handicapper, the Austin Sorrie trained/driven mare nonetheless has speed that cannot be dismissed, even from post #7. (4) TOURIST ATTRACTION is a consistent closer, quietly making late gains for trainer/driver Andy Moore; maiden is slightly quicker than other class-climbing rivals, and without the recent breaking issues of #5 Camco Bailey. 
 
Race 4 – (2) BAD NIGHT MARE faces $7000 claiming company for second week in a row; fourth under urging from post #6 in the Jan. 24 slop, she wasn’t far behind the place/show finishers. (7) DOLLY DALI won for Robert Shepherd Jan. 24 and hit board in her last 2 trips from outer post positions; overland trips have produced a top-3 finish in 100% of her races at $7000 claiming level since Nov. 15. (6) MOON LAKE pulled off a mild upset Jan. 17, winning with Scott Coulter aboard, from post #6; quick final quarters in last 2 starts suggest she could get involved late here.
 
Race 5 – (2) BETTORS MARK gets substantial class relief on his London return; post and addition of Tyler Borth could help orchestrate a repeat of Dec. 26 upset victory against tough competition. (7) SAULSBROOK PEACH recent Rideau Carleton invader has picked up cheques in all 3 London Preferred-3 tries; an impressive 12 victories last season, but may need to set early pace here, so he is vulnerable. (4) ROLLING ROCK shows preference for the mile distance, closing for place money with Scott Coulter aboard Jan. 27; his improving form and fast last quarters make him viable prospect, even against class-droppers.

Race 6 – (8) STONEBRIDGE DRAMA won at this distance Jan. 3, then went gate-to-wire for latest pilot Tyler Borth Jan. 24; trailing position and familiarity with this class should work to her advantage. (9) DIVA DALI will have to execute a well-timed closing effort from second tier at tonight's added distance; beaten favourite in last start. (5) QALIGIRL BLUE CHIP is second-time Lasix tonight, perhaps helping the St. Louis team extend her typical front-end effort all the way to finish; unlikely to fend off closers like this race's top 2 picks. (4) FASHION WRITER was fourth at mile-and-1/16 Jan. 1, despite a prolonged overland trip. (1) ONECENTFROMHEAVEN is a fast closer who is down in class; she finished fifth at same distance Jan. 13.

Race 7 -- (1) SGT NEILGREENBERET returns to mile distance here, after back-to-back extra-distance disappointments; tough closer was second to Diva Dali Jan. 3. (5) MACH SHARK lands best post for pacers at Western Fair, following an unsuccessful overland trip from second tier at added distance Jan. 24; second for Marc St. Louis Jr. at this level Jan. 17. (3) DREAM BALL was third as beaten favourite against similar company Jan. 17; best recent result was a Jan. 3 place finish at mile-and-1/16 for Brett MacDonald.

Race 8 -- (6) IONIA's last victory was in Dec. 17 added-distance London Preferred-3, winning by a head after 3-wide move off the last turn; pacesetters beware of Robert Shepherd's mare. (1) WHAT CAN I SAY prevailed in Preferred-3 conditioned event Dec. 26, also from post #1; Scott Coulter improves chances of front-end-loving class-dropper. (3) EAGLE SCOUT has raced near the front and hit board in last 2 races, both at lower classification and mile distance; recent results indicate good form for Raceway regular, so including despite class jump.

Race 9 -- (2) KINDA LIKE HER turned on late speed for winning 1:57.4 effort at Flamboro Jan. 16; lower classification this week assists Rideau Carleton import who spent early career on Maritime half-miles. (1) FRIENDS TO THE END has been a top-2 finisher in her previous 5 starts, all for Marc St. Louis Jr.; too many effective closers in this race for her to find uncontested lead. (3) GORGEOUS RANAY is another in from Flamboro with late speed and class relief; her best current results have been on the front end, so she's dangerously versatile for latest driver Austin Sorrie.

Race 10 -- (9) SUPER T won at added distance in going-away style Dec. 6 for Travis Henry; he faded on the outside from post #6 last race but is likely to find the front from second tier tonight. (8) POSSIBLE CREDIT was overlooked at the windows in 2 consecutive place finishes; narrowly missed winning at lower level mile Jan. 24. (6) VICTORIAHASASECRET has closed well for place and show money in last 2 starts following her most recent victory; strong form, and regular driver Robert Shepherd returns to sulky. (5) WARRAWEE USAIN has left aggressively from various post positions and dominated, recording 3 wins in the past month; untested trying that approach at added distance. (3) H A HOUSTON stalks leaders and pounces on cheques for minor shares; rounds out Hi-5.

Photo by John Watkins

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Melissa Keith is a lifelong harness handicapper/bettor, Hervey/O'Brien Media Excellence Award-winning writer, and occasional racecaller. She is a contributor to TROT, Hoof Beats, Atlantic Post Calls, and Harness Racing Update, often covering topics related to wagering. Her most memorable bets include taking down the Truro Raceway Pick-7 pool for a $36 investment - it has not been offered since) and collecting $1,287 for a Woodbine Harness Pick-4 which cost a whopping $1.60.  

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