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Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Sunday, October 3, 2021

Bet Now > Tips from the Pros > Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Sunday, October 3, 2021

Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Sunday, October 3, 2021

October 3, 2021
By Melissa Keith
Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Sunday, October 3, 2021
Best Bet – (1) BET ON A DREAM – Race 8
Spot Play – (7) LARRY IS DEBS ROCK – Race 4
20-cent Pick 5 – Race 5 – 2,4,6/2,3,6/2,5/1/6 = $3.60   
20-cent Early Pick 4 – Race 2 – 5/4/5,6,7,8/2,4,6 = $2.40
20-cent Middle Pick 4 – Race 4 – 5,7,8/2,4,6/2,3,6/2,5 = $10.80
20-cent Late Pick 4 – Race 6 – 2,3,6/1,2,5/1/6 = $1.80
20-cent Last Pick 4 – Race 8 – 1,4,5/6/2,4,5,6/1,4 = $4.80
 

Race 1 —  (6) SAULSBROOK VELVETA beat the boys from post 7 for maiden victory Thursday; Pascal Berube stays loyal for near-gate-to-wire winner's second pari-mutuel start (excluding the September 23 "no contest"); Berube's apparent choice over #2 Battle with Desire. Class-dropping Mike Armstrong stablemate  (4) OHBABYWEFOUNDLOVE gapped second-last behind top bunch through most of Thursday's race; tightened up on last turn, coming third-over and tipping an ambitious three-wide at the top of the stretch to close for fifth; back-to-back Rideau wins at distaff Nw7500l level last September 25-October 1.  (3) FARMERWHOSEMYDADDY was three-wide in early battle with Putins Dart and front-end winner Getyourlicenseliam last start; returns to distaff company here, at lower classification; conservative stalking trips for Clarke Steacy have both been seconds faster than her lifetime-best mark.
 
Race 2 —  (5) THE LIGHT SPEED didn't get his favoured front-end trip last Sunday; instead, he followed National Debt second-over off the gate, briefly settled fourth along pylons, then made another move, first over at the quarter; reached sulky wheel of  (6) NATIONAL DEBT, then backed down; Pascal Berube's horse won twice this year from tonight's post, against lesser fields; July 25, he didn't have The Light Speed or Hitman Hill to his inside; he was taken back, let Springbridge Jim cut a 26.3 first quarter, then hunted him down from first over; finished second using similar strategy against tougher group from post 6 September 19.  (4) HITMAN HILL has form and speed, but does he have the class to beat top pair tonight? Soundly beaten all summer in Charlottetown Preferred/Invitational company, he's been perfect on front end since joining trainer Anne-Marie Turenne.
 
Race 3 —  (4) SPORTS JACKET suffered early interference by Giddy Up Max last Sunday; he and tonight's #1 Outlaw Kismet had to dodge that breaker at back of the field and never got back into the race; tough closer won from tough post last time he was down in class here.  (6)  ART OF FIRE is recent claim who looks to be best on 5/8-mile tracks; most recent victories were at Georgian Downs, using different tactics for different drivers both successful trips.  (2)  SAULSBROOK KAISEN disappointed on last week's class hike; front-end-loving and formful, he's this race's winningest (six wins) of 2021; not sure if he and Guy Gagnon can bottom out this race's top choice the way they've dominated at lower classification. 
 
Race 4 —  (7) LARRY IS DEBS ROCK visibly improved with Guy Gagnon driving last Sunday; ground-saving pocket ride behind Silverado suggests winless-in-2021 gelding could be on brink of stepping up, despite unfortunate draw; all six 2020 wins were when stalking close to pace or on front end; Gagnon's apparent choice over #2 Pantheon Seelster.  (5) ALWAYSYOURWAY was single-file seventh on first turn last Sunday, as 1/5 fave One for Julius (#6 tonight) cut mile; first over from far back going to the half, he made steady progress but lost momentum going wide around Pantheon Seelster in stretch, as Shine A Light swept past both; loses Samuel Fillion to  (8) LUCKY LEONARD who was fourth in early going last Sunday, under a strong hold at the opening quarter; unable to flush out cover, he was sent first over to challenge leader Silverado enroute to the half; he couldn't clear and backed off.
 
Race 5 —  (6) PRINT MEDIA left aggressively from rail last weekend; 4/5 fave was quickly circled by Silverado, however, and later covered up by a first-over Lucky Leonard; once loose in stretch, he narrowly lost place photo after coming home in field's-fastest 27.4; Marie-Claude Auger's apparent choice over #8 Twin B Laker and  (2) ROAD RUNNER COLONY, a class-dropper among class-climbers; recently first over from third-last nearing the half at Kawartha Downs, he picked up cover but gapped in fifth outside; remarkably found more for late surge in stretch.  (4) MATTS TUITION exits $10K claiming company for Rideau conditioned ranks, where he enjoyed two stalking wins for Guy Gagnon last fall. Second-tier  (9) NOTAWORD N was fast off the gate September 23, setting in pocket behind pacesetter; followed first-up winner Bet On A Dream on last turn, but couldn't match strides with him or runner-up  (3) JON SNOW, who did the heavy lifting over "good" surface that race, leading at every call but the finish.
 
Race 6 —  Last Sunday,  (2) BIG PETES STYLE was third-over from sixth when first-over Levis Day began backpedaling on last turn; forced to close widest of all as 74/1 upset Atomic Million AM took shortest route to victory in tight, multi-horse finish.  (3) NIGHT CLUB HANOVER shows late speed, but prefers to be closer to the pace; enigmatic and lightly-campaigned class-dropper is evidently Marie-Claude Auger's pick over #1 Task Bar Hanover.  (6) STORMY HALL GB's three 2021 wins were from post 4 or rail; didn't care that he was 25/1 last Sunday, when he set pace throughout and nearly held off late charge from Atomic Million AM; note Stephane Pouliot is back in the bike, as he was for both of this season's Rideau wins.
 
Race 7 —  (2) THRILLING TIMES drops in from Preferred Handicap; Marie-Claude Auger's obvious choice over wild upset #3 Atomic Million AM, wired field the last time he was this far down in class...from post 7; note he hasn't raced since September 19.  (5) SHADOW MARGEAUX shares similar class drop, but has a much lower win percentage; strong closer is frequent runner-up when not in over his head; seemingly Ryan Guy's pick over #6 St Lads Cash.  (1) GIDDY UP MAX broke early last Sunday for no clear reason; a non-factor that race, he's back with intriguing catch driver from rail; significant post relief; remains above classification of latest victory.
 
Race 8 —  (1) BET ON A DREAM makes a fast turnaround after spending entire mile on the outside Thursday; beaten 3/5 fave couldn't quite catch gate-to-wire winner Mister Big Top, despite pacing field's-co-fastest (29.2) last quarter.  (4) SHADOW MOON was covered up and shuffled back from sixth in Rideau debut; closed in field's co-fastest 29-flat, but left little impression; second consecutive start with Lasix.  (5) WALKS OF LIFE arrived at Kawartha Downs in June, capturing his third start there for new trainer John MacMillan; also won his Ottawa debut July 15; winless since August claim, but back at price tag of his most recent wins here.
 
Race 9 —  (6) MORTGAGE MY VILLA has recorded a new personal best and three Rideau victories since claim by Guy Gagnon; tough to argue against him here.  (1) THINK AGAIN looks like Ryan Guy's choice over #5 Genesee, despite wiring with that rival last week at Kawartha; found an early spot in single-file third last Sunday; ended up boxed in; fourth up passing lane, offering less late kick than expected.  (4) EMPTYTHETILL gets improved post and driver upgrade; his two 2021 wins were at $8K-$8.5K claiming tags; near-gate-to-wire effort in seasonal best here two starts ago was over short field where American Paradise fell and half the competition was distanced/DNF.
 
Race 10 —  (2) GLOIRE DREAM followed the cover of Crossfit (#7 tonight) last start, spending most of the race on outside; closed in a field's-fastest 29.1, identical to winner; versatile trotter strong on latest class jump and has not missed Rideau board for Samuel Fillion.  (6) CAPTEUR DE REVE has the gate speed to wire from outside posts; beaten 4/5 fave was boxed in behind Ripped And Ready last start, unable to catch closers when he tried passing lane; apparently Guy Gagnon's choice over (5) FRIDO PV, who won three 2021 Rideau starts in line to Pascal Berube, but trainer Yves St. Jacques was in the sulky for the four-time seasonal winner's first qualifying and pari-mutuel victories, both at Hippodrome 3R; beaten 6/5 fave was used early, boxed in, and then tried passing lane in Rideau Preferred Handicap adventure.
 
Race 11 —  (1) DREAMFAIR TECATE couldn't quite catch Fcee N (#8 here) last Sunday, although he was gaining with every stride in deep stretch; move from $10K to $12K claiming tag didn't take away from his strong current form; with top rival landing the #8 hole tonight, the tables will likely be turned.  (4) BS TYRRIFIC closed in field's-fastest 28.2 last Sunday, flying up passing lane after ground-saving trip in fourth along pylons; winless since March 21, when he and Pascal Berube raced three-wide to 27.3 opening quarter, made front, and never looked back.  (8) FCEE N recently won on front end at this level when starting from post 7; that doesn't mean it's likely from even further out tonight, especially with the rapidly-diminishing win margin he had in that August 29 victory, as well as last week's.  (3)  MACHO POLO exits conditioned for claiming company; late speed.  (5)  BESTOFBEST HANOVER looked to be on his way to first win of the year last week, but was caught late by Shine A Light; minor shares for back-class closer against these.
 
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Melissa Keith is a lifelong harness handicapper/bettor, Hervey/O'Brien Media Excellence Award-winning writer, and occasional racecaller. She is a contributor to TROT, Hoof Beats, Atlantic Post Calls, and Harness Racing Update, often covering topics related to wagering. Her most memorable bets include taking down the Truro Raceway Pick-7 pool for a $36 investment (it has not been offered since) and collecting $1,287 for a Woodbine Harness Pick-4, which cost $1.60.


Photo by Ryan Clements Photos
 

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