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Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Sunday, September 26, 2021

Bet Now > Tips from the Pros > Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Sunday, September 26, 2021

Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Sunday, September 26, 2021

September 26, 2021
Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Sunday, September 26, 2021
Best Bet – (3) LUCKY LEONARD – Race 7
Spot Play – (2) LUNAR LAUNCH – Race 5 
20-cent Pick 5 – Race 5 – 2,6/4,6/3/2,5/4,5,6 = $4.80
20-cent Early Pick 4 – Race 2 – 2,5/ALL/2,3,5/2 = $6.00
20-cent Middle Pick 4 – Race 4 – 2,3,5/2,6/4,6/3 = $2.40
20-cent Late Pick 4 – Race 6 – 4,6/3,9/2,4,5/4 = $2.40
20-cent Last Pick 4 – Race 8 – 2,4,5,6,7/4,6/5/1,2,8 = $6.00

 
Race 1 —  (4) THREE TRICK GAINER brings late speed; only win this year was June 17, when he stalked and surprised #3 Wild River Coyotee; Thursday he followed pacesetter Isla Seelster from third along pylons in the rain; chased winner Wisk Key K home from second-over on last turn, closing in field’s co-fastest 29.1; driver change means pay attention.  (6) PERFECT DALIANCE was taken to back of field early Thursday, in race with a 27-flat opening panel; waited to follow cover of Steelmeatreasure passing the half; game in stretch but passing-lane move from Ceaseless beat the rest; leaving tough distaff company for mixed-sex competition that may be a little easier.  Class-dropper (2) JOURNALISTIC wired by open lengths in last mile at lower classification; Richard Simard stays aboard for third consecutive start, despite disappointing finish last week, when he was sent three-wide early to battle eventual winner Saulsbrook Kaisen to 27-second opening quarter; gapped in pocket and offered little in the stretch.
 
Race 2 —  (2) MIDNIGHT SURF avoids top Rideau mares in third start for Macy Cassell; started up from back of field at half last Sunday, second-over but open lengths behind the first-over, parked Howmacfiesty; three-wide move from fourth at top of stretch illustrated need for class relief.  (5) YNOTHOS and Guy Gagnon finished second as beaten 1/5 fave last week from this post, behind #4 Jessicas Legacy; front-end-loving mare’s 2021 wins have all been from inside posts, with the exception of Kawartha Downs victory where she was much the best from post 8.  Pacesetter/stalker (6) SOPHIST’s latest wins were last year, for Richard Moreau at Mohawk; first-time Mandy Archer starter hasn’t been able to reach winners’ circle in 2021, despite light campaign at various tracks; recent form doesn’t suggest imminent breakthrough, despite class drop.
 
Race 3 —  (4) CROSSFIT took down early leaders Capteur De Reve and Ripped And Ready (#3 tonight) in most recent Rideau Preferred; first-over move from fourth at the quarter saw him gaining ground through the rest of overland trip, producing his fastest win this season.  (5) MAGIC NIGHT is a versatile winner from outside Rideau post positions; started from second tier in Hippodrome 3R Invitational, following from fourth along pylons, emerging first over on second turn; parked out by Capteur De Reve, he couldn’t catch that (now-absent) winner, but was still open lengths better than the rest of the field.  (2) EMOTIONS RICHES grabbed lead off gate in rich Quebec stakes action last start; 2/5 fave (as part of stable entry) cut mile but couldn't hold off pocket-riding Hall Win in two-horse duel down the stretch; faced OSS Gold colts on last trip to Ottawa, again setting the pace and caught late; held on for show, trotting an individual mile over four seconds faster than his lifetime mark.
 
Race 4 —  The recently-claimed (3) DREAMFAIR TECATE’s form is so strong right now; blasted to lead off gate last Sunday for Stephane Pouliot, who doesn’t have any Rideau drives tonight; maintained advantage the full mile, holding off closers and taking new lifetime mark for new trainer Mandy Archer.  (2) BS TYRRIFIC is down in class; also of interest is that he moves out of second-tier post position for the first time in a month; a front-end Rideau winner for Pascal Berube March 21, he’s gone winless since then; third-over from near-last at the three-quarters September 12, he gained considerable ground in parked-out voyage.  (5) FCEE N makes fourth start since claimed by Guy Gagnon; circled on the lead, ending up boxed in and shuffled to last two starts ago; popular favourite redeemed himself last Sunday, yet looks vulnerable against others with current 1:53-zone speed.
 
Race 5 —  Class-dropper (2) LUNAR LAUNCH had #8 hole the last time he raced at this price tag; got away fifth in rain Thursday, gapping a few lengths behind breakaway leaders; proven closer is back in rein to Samuel Fillion, who was aboard for most recent victory (at higher classification).  (6) THUNDERING JIM cleared Western Phil by the 26.4 opening quarter last start, prompted by the first-over Jessicas Legacy; no one could match strides with him late in the mile, as he powered to second consecutive front-end, going-away victory for Guy Gagnon; post may make a difference here.  (1) BOBBIES POWER PLAY tends to lose ground late; driver change and rail at familiar classification may not be enough to break that current streak of show finishes.  (4) WESTERN PHIL has been excellent at $8K claiming tag, although surprisingly empty after pocket ride last start; front-end-loving gelding was claimed back last week, returning to the trainer for whom he’s had all five 2021 Rideau victories; judges ruled he didn’t suffer interference last Sunday when (3) JACKSON K DOWN veered into his path in the stretch; another formful recent class-dropper who’s a must-use at $8K claiming level; steering problems were evident in stretch drive.
 
Race 6 —  (6) MISTER GODRO might look like the weaker half of unofficial Mandy Archer stable entry here; note he’s been competing at $12K claiming price and now drops into $10K company against field with some recent class-climbers; stalked leaver Fcee N closely last Sunday, but didn’t show much from passing lane; Marie-Claude Auger’s apparent choice over #5 Matts Tuition.  (4) RYE N CLYNE debuts for Mandy Archer; claimed prior to his blowout gate-to-wire effort at Grand River; he’s mainly been racing on half-mile tracks, but his record shows a horse who’s often better at 5/8-mile venues.  (2) LUKE AND DUKE was no match for Dreamfair Tecate last start, although he did get within a length of that front-end winner at the wire.
 
Race 7 —  (3) LUCKY LEONARD was a horse who stood out last week, despite 17/1 odds; closed in field's-fastest 28.1 for show; others are finding relief in this race, but he’s showing better week-over-week results in last three starts.  (9) PORTRSTOWNCHRIS IR stalled second-over in traffic when parked last Thursday; second tier looks better than last week’s outside post; top 2021 earner of this group.  (1) PRINT MEDIA hasn’t been the same since claimed two starts back; rail, driver change and class drop should shake things up for gelding who was fourth from post 8 in most recent try at similar classification.
 
Race 8 —  Class-dropper (5) BIG PETES STYLE trailed early last start, joining the outer flow from second-last past the opening quarter; navigated late traffic into passing lane, closing almost unnoticed for fifth at 10/1; paced field’s-fastest (29 flat) last quarter.  (2) OFFICER JONES finds post relief; taken back to second-last early last Sunday, he advanced third-over near the three-quarters, closing around fading cover on last turn and into the stretch.  (4) LEVIS DAY paced field’s co-second-fastest (28.2) closing quarter last Sunday; stalked from third along pylons in a less-tiring trip than the harder-used Vanilla Malted (#6 tonight), who kept closer to Hitman Hill’s wild pace.
 
Race 9 —  (4) ONE FOR JULIUS closed three-wide from far back in field’s-fastest 27.4 last Thursday; beaten 5/2 fave gets class/post relief that seems to point toward his first 2021 victory.  (6) SHINE A LIGHT was also flying late last start; recent win came when pacesetter Brookletsjustified gave way in the stretch and a perfectly-timed move by Ryan Guy picked off game-to-the-wire 6/5 fave (5) ALWAYSYOURWAY, who loses Richard Simard to top-choice One for Julius here; also racing without Lasix; this field’s top 2021 earner is dependable late speed.
 
Race 10 —  (5) NATIONAL DEBT loves tonight’s post, winning five of six 2021 starts from here; drew outside last Thursday, resulting in chasing home going-away front-end winner (6) THE LIGHT SPEED, whose previous wins from this post at Rideau Preferred level were when National Debt was in the Maritimes; his only Rideau losses this season were also from #6 hole. (3) MISSION BAY has climbed Ottawa class ladder rapidly, shaving seconds off each week; in spite of his seasonal-best win last Sunday, a preference for racing on/near the pace means war with The Light Speed, a trip scenario which plays to the strengths of National Debt.
 
Race 11 —  (2) SAULSBROOK KAISEN shows little indication of being tested since Rideau arrival; regular multi-length win margins and largely unchallenged trips suggest he’s capable of finding more if asked on tonight’s class jump.  Major post relief for (1) THE REGULATOR, who was three-wide early, then battled eventual winner Mission Bay first-over from second between the opening quarter and the three-quarters; game effort was test of stamina; loses Guy Gagnon to top selection.  (8) SPORTS JACKET won from post 7 two starts ago; Pascal Berube seemingly passes up drive on (4) HITMAN HILL for this rugged closer; Clarke Steacy picks up live catch drive on going-away gate-to-wire winning 1/2 fave; class hike into deeper company.  (6) GIDDY UP MAX is persistent closer who loses Richard Simard to The Regulator here; last win was at lower classification.

 
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Melissa Keith is a lifelong harness handicapper/bettor, Hervey/O'Brien Media Excellence Award-winning writer, and occasional racecaller. She is a contributor to TROT, Hoof Beats, Atlantic Post Calls, and Harness Racing Update, often covering topics related to wagering. Her most memorable bets include taking down the Truro Raceway Pick-7 pool for a $36 investment (it has not been offered since) and collecting $1,287 for a Woodbine Harness Pick-4, which cost $1.60.

 
Photo by Ryan Clements Photos
 
 

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