Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Raceway Selections: Friday, January 10, 2020

Bet Now > Tips from the Pros > Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Raceway Selections: Friday, January 10, 2020

Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Raceway Selections: Friday, January 10, 2020

January 10, 2020
By Melissa Keith
Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Raceway Selections: Friday, January 10, 2020
Best Bet – (3) – THE REGULATOR – Race 5
Spot Play – (2) – BAD NIGHT MARE – Race 3
20-cent Early Pick 4 – Race 3 – 1,2/3,8/2,3/2,3,8 = $4.80
20-cent Late Pick 4 – 2,4,8/1,2,8/4,6/1,6 = $7.20


Race 1 – (5) SETTING DAY moves into current best post position for a Raceway trotter, after failing to make front in first-over bid from post #7 last week; trotting around breaker Jordan Bellfort at the start also compromised Jan. 3 race for this good closer. (2) JAYPORT HI CLASS followed Setting Day second-over last start; tiring leaders paved way for maiden-breaking victory from off the pace. (1) MAJESTIC HERO closed late from trailing post #8 last race; mild closer prefers to stalk pacesetters such as his Kestle stablemate, Jordan Bellfort.

Race 2 – (3) POLLAR HALL gave way late Dec. 22 at Flamboro, still finishing second after cutting most of a 2:00.3h mile; the absence of any serious closers here bodes well for this group’s fastest winner on a half-mile track in 2019. (1) HEINEKEN SEELSTER was a 9-time place finisher last season, getting class and post relief tonight; paired with Brett MacDonald—their last 2 races together were place finishes at Flamboro. (5) AVATAR SEELSTER misbehaved behind the gate on Jan. 1, destroying his chances; class drop, but hasn’t been showing the form that made him a 10-time winner last season.

Race 3 – (2) BAD NIGHT MARE was first up in Jan. 1 start at same level, narrowly beat out in place photo by Only One Star; versatile veteran was a going-away winner in last at lower level and will be hard to catch if Coulter sends her early here. (1) FRIENDS TO THE END was beaten favourite Dec. 3, second to an exceptionally-good Only One Star; since paired with St. Louis Jr., this closer has not been worse than second, regardless of post. (5) THATS MIA BAD is second-time Lasix tonight; cautious optimism for a stronger finish.

Race 4 – (3) DIVA DALI was 10/1 overlay winner at same level Jan. 3; strong form and fastest closing kick. (8) STONEBRIDGE DRAMA has recently romped by widening lengths from inside posts (#1 and #8) at London; another solid closer, although Diva Dali’s late speed will be tough to beat. (6) ONECENTFROMHEAVEN is one of several possibilities for show spot; third on Jan. 3 after class drop, she’s another who usually gains ground late in mile.

Race 5 – (3) THE REGULATOR followed Bettors Mark from back of the pack last Friday, then tried again from inside path after that rival stalled first-over, unleashing fastest closing quarter in the race (29.1); class/post relief sets the stage for gate-to-wire success. (2) TWILITE ZONE looks likely to spar with The Regulator from the start; class-dropper joins forces with Shepherd, who steered him to his last win on Nov. 14 at Flamboro. (5) ROUGH TRADE is up in class here, but it’s tough to overlook his enthusiastic and productive closing efforts for Coulter; like him in show spot.

Race 6 – (3) MOLLIE Z TAM had a perfectly-timed late move for owner/trainer/driver Rankin Jr. on Jan. 3; deep closer lands same post position as in last week’s winning effort. (8) BRAONACH was a going-away winner at mile New Year's Day, but this beaten fav also broke on the lead after big 3-wide move last week; leaves from trailing position, so expect tussle with Ideal Toy. (2) IDEAL TOY draws well for use of favoured front-end tactics in third consecutive race at added distance; post #6 left her vulnerable to first-over Watt Machs Me Win last start. (7) SGT NEILGREENBERET put up an impressive fight at long odds to finish second in last; post appears more problematic than climb in class for this closer. (4) SHADOW OF HER SMILE was an off the pace winner at Flamboro Dec. 18, and closed for show after a class jump there Jan. 2; driver change to Wray and good post offset another class jump.

Race 7 – (2) SECRETLY FLASHY just missed beating Mac N Caps in last, closing aggressively at added distance; class jump tonight, but recent clockings in place finishes at mile have matched or beat her lifetime best 2:02.4h. (4) VICTORIAHASASECRET was a winning Spot Play from inside post last outing; post #4 suggests she won’t make front easily as in previous effort, so will likely chase from off the pace. (8) WARRAWEE USAIN does his best work on the front end; trailing post position means he’ll have to follow #1 Iam What I Am, who will not be seeking the early lead.

Race 8 – (2) FASHION WRITER was “a handful” for Carroll last start, in the words of race caller Sugar Doyle; mare went first-over in added-distance event, spent most of race grinding on the outside, and hung on fourth. (1) CHEEKY CHERRY was boxed in and shuffled back on Feb. 5 at Flamboro, from inside post; significant class relief and new driver Shepherd raise expectations for her Raceway debut. (8) MISS OHIO gets trailing post where she can navigate typical show finish; stays at lower level for third consecutive week.

Race 9 – (4) NCUTSNBUTSNCOCANTS keeps outperforming his odds, trotting home strong to hit board in all but 1 of last 5 trips at various class levels; catch driver Kelly steps in for regular pilot Duford. (6) POSSIBLE CREDIT was up against a trio of high-percentage winners last Friday in London; St. Louis will likely send her to the front quickly, as Shepherd did in her mile-and-1/16, gate-to-wire victory last March. (5) BRYDOWN HOUSTON is fastest recent winner, although by a slim margin at Flamboro; like lead-loving rival Possible Credit, needs to dig deep to hold off late challengers.

Race 10 – (1) DREAM BALL capitalized on added distance, nearly breaking year-long win drought with place finish on Jan. 3; MacDonald stays aboard for trip from second-best post position for London pacers. (6) MORAMAPPO has been pacing some relatively-fast miles and final quarters in last few at Flamboro; show finisher at this distance on Nov. 22 and lands catch driver Sorrie tonight. (3) ITSABOUTTIMETOWIN gets the biggest class drop here, yet closed for show as a longshot at mile-and-1/16 Dec. 9 for Day; note that result was over sloppy surface. (8) MACH SHARK closed for fourth at extra distance on Jan 3; St. Louis Jr. in the bike and a trailing post can put her into late contention. (9) ACTION ROYAL GRIN finished fifth, twice, at same distance in most recent attempts; no reason not to expect similar in tonight’s late Hi-5 race.

*

Melissa Keith is a lifelong harness handicapper/bettor, Hervey/O'Brien Media Excellence Award-winning writer, and occasional racecaller. She is a contributor to TROT, Hoof Beats, Atlantic Post Calls, and Harness Racing Update, often covering topics related to wagering. Her most memorable bets include taking down the Truro Raceway Pick-7 pool for a $36 investment (it has not been offered since) and collecting $1,287 for a Woodbine Harness Pick-4 which cost a whopping $1.60.  



 

More Tips from the Pros