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Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, November 15, 2020

Bet Now > Tips from the Pros > Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, November 15, 2020

Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, November 15, 2020

November 15, 2020
By Melissa Keith
Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, November 15, 2020
Spot Play – (3) – UBER HANOVER – Race 10
Best Bet – (2) – THE ROADIES – Race 8
20-cent Early Pick 4 - Race 3 – 3,4,5/6,7/2,5/2,3,9 = $7.20
20-cent Late Pick 4 - Race 7 – 2,4,6/2/2,3/1,2,3,9 = $4.80


Race 1 – (1) HAT TRICK MARLEAU was a going-away winning favourite Nov. 8 at Rideau Carleton Nw2800l3cd level; trainer/driver Pierre Bovay has gate-to-wire winner back in same post position this week, with class jump the recent Preferred Handicap trotter shouldn't find difficult. (4) CHEQUE THE MAGIC gets significant class drop and returns to the same post from which he wired Ottawa Nw2800l3cd company Oct. 18; barely edged out the oncoming Hat Trick Marleau in August 30 blanket finish (at odds of 25/1) when he was assigned rail in Preferred Handicap. (3) BATTING STATS hit one out of the park for Guy Gagnon Nov. 12, at lesser Nw1450l3cd classification; he's up in class here, beyond the Rideau levels he's won at this year, and poses ever-present threat of a break if he's overextended in pursuit of this race's top selection.
 
Race 2 – (2) REYS N A ROCKET is evidently Richard Simard's choice over #Sin City Shark, although she finished fourth as beaten 2/1 fave in Nov. 8 Rideau Carleton 15000clm event for Ryan Guy; Brian Jerome Memorial Claiming Series champ was claimed away from owner/trainer Robert Bernicky Oct. 18 but claimed back by him Oct. 25; boxed in much of Nov. 8 mile. (3) SIN CITY SHARK is Ryan Guy's catch drive tonight; back-to-back Ottawa winner captured Brian Jerome Series Consolation for Simard Nov. 1. (6) DARCEE N was claimed from similar-named owner/trainer/driver Darcy Clancy after their Nov. 8 10000clm victory, returning to owner/trainer Gary Mc Donald and getting new catch driver Rodney Laframboise; while up in class tonight, the popular 10-year-old is still tops in this field by 2020 victories (eight), mostly for Guy Gagnon and Tyler Jones.
 
Race 3 – (3) ABC MUSCLES BOY finished third but was set back to fourth at Rideau Carleton Nov. 8, for an aggressive move in deep stretch causing interference against P C Heisenberg; trotted the field's fastest last quarter (29.1) for Marie Claude Auger in that Nw1250l3cd event; former Rene Allard trainee remains winless in 2020, but three of his four 2019 victories were on 5/8-mile Pocono in sub-1:56 clockings where he was on/ near the front throughout. (4) UNDERCOVER STRIKE cut the 1:59 mile Nov. 8, getting stung at the wire by longshot Hldntghttyrdrms in this track's Nw1250l3cd trot; winless in just five tries this year, the gelding who's earned over $700,000 in his career continues late-season comeback with trainer Guy Gagnon aboard; a beaten 2/5 fave from the rail last race. (5) CHUCKIESSWEETDREAM disappointed with an apathetic effort on the Nov. 8 class drop for Rodney Laframboise, very unlike the promise of his 28.4 closing speed in seventh-to-fourth stretch drive Oct. 25, against Rideau Nw2750l3cd company; with a single 2020 victory (over half-mile Northfield Park), he's tough to place higher in tickets this week, but if Laframboise can unleash that late kick again--beware.
 
Race 4 – (7) LUKE AND DUKE has been a going-away winner of three consecutive Rideau Carleton efforts for owner/trainer/driver Guy Gagnon; with nine victories this season, all at this track, there's little reason to stop now; outer post positions and moving up in class don't tend to impact his performance here. (6) STONEBRIDGE BEACH was a beaten even-money fave at this track's Nw2750l3cd classification Nov. 1, finishing fifth; in his next start, up in class on Nov. 8, he came first-over from second-last at the half and closed enough ground to grab show spot behind Luke and Duke, pacing an identical field's-fastest 29 flat last quarter. (2) LEVIS DAY won on front end on his Rideau Nw875pscd debut Oct. 25; his next two races were against "not listed" Preferred pacers where he was a non-factor, but he's got class relief from inside post this week. 
 
Race 5 – (5) LESTENPERCENT is 11-for-21 in the win column this year, so from any post inside of Rideau Carleton's #7 or #8, he's especially easy to like. (2) ACE BI returned from Mohawk and trotted to his sixth victory of 2020 Nov. 8, from Rideau Carleton post #5 in the "not listed" Preferred Handicap; extended overland efforts from off the pace are his style, although last week's Preferred win was also assisted by Lestenpercent (#5 his race) breaking stride. (1) SEEYOU MEN has won from the Rideau rail this year, but he's also won at same level ("not listed" Preferred) from post #8; those back-to-back June wins were his only ones this year, so even with inside post position and trainer Guy Gagnon in the bike, he's in a challenging spot tonight.
 
Race 6 – (3) BIG PETES STYLE chases seasonal victory #16 from a post position that theoretically poses less difficulty than his Nov. 8 start from post #8; in reality, Guy Gagnon's front-end-loving gelding didn't let the outer post hold him back last week, as he still crossed over straight off the gate and romped by a widening three-and-a-half lengths. (9) SAULSBROOK LANNY and Stephane Brosseau chased home #3 Big Petes Style for place Nov. 8, pacing a co-field's-fastest final quarter of 28.4 to advance from sixth to second in the stretch. (2) RED JOHN gets class relief after his win streak came to an end Nov. 8; Vic Puddy trainee won four in a row, then struggled from trailing post #9, without regular driver Guy Gagnon, at Rideau 15000clm level last Sunday; dangerous on front end. (6) WILDCAT CAM is Mandy Archer-trained stablemate to #9 Saulsbrook Lanny; he's also Pascal Berube's first drive of the card, and can stalk to get involved. (4) ST LADS CASH has gained ground late in his last three starts.
 
Race 7 – (6) DAY DELIGHT visited Ottawa August 16 to compete in OSS Grassroots over a "good" surface in the rain, finishing fifth; the three-year-old Vic Puddy trainee is back for first Rideau start since that uninspired effort, finding what amounts to a class drop as he exits Mohawk Nw3000l5cd company and gains catch driver Guy Gagnon; lone three-year-old is apparent choice of Gagnon, who also drove Puddy's Racemup (#2 this race) to front-end victory here Nov. 8. (4) VEGAS ROCKS opened up by two-and-a-half lengths in winning Rideau "not listed" Preferred Nov. 8; he retains Stephane Brosseau, who turned in a four-win night Thursday; importantly, when Vegas Rocks has started from inside of National Debt (#5 this race), he's won three times since August 30, while National Debt has won just once when he's had a post position outside of Vegas Rocks. (2) KWIK TALKIN saved ground and kept advancing Nov. 8, his most recent "not listed" Preferred start for Rodney Laframboise; he won from inside post at this level Sept. 20 for Clarke Steacy, who drives #1 Vanilla Malted; has gained ground at end of his last three races.  
 
Race 8 – (2) THE ROADIES is at the lowest classification he's faced since Sept. 20, when he won at Rideau Carleton Nw1350l3cd level with stalking trip behind Its Eds Idea for the Mandy Archer/Guy Gagnon partnership. (3) SIR GALAHAD finds class relief after winning his Nov. 8 qualifier gate-to-wire; Rodney Laframboise returns to the sulky behind four-time 2020 winner who's still in search of his first of the season at this venue. (6)  PRINCE GIOVANNI has been improving in recent starts; his only 2020 win was Sept. 27 against Rideau Nw635pscd pacers, when he took charge from the rail and wired rivals, which seems unlikely from this far out.
 
Race 9 – (2) RUB ME was a narrowly-defeated 2/5 fave Nov. 5, cutting through traffic late by following Bronson (#4 this race) in a third-over pursuit of gate-to-wire longshot Task Bar Hanover; six Rideau Carleton wins and counting in 2020 for game closer. (3) THREE TRICK GAINER dominated from post #7 here Nov. 12, so moves up in class following that 1:56.3 maiden victory, but he's ready; John MacMillan/Stephane Brosseau a productive team lately; #4 Bronson also starts for owner/trainer MacMillan this race, but hasn't been finishing miles as well as his stablemate. (7) GENERAL LEE appears so obvious in retrospect, leading up to his second win of the year, here on Nov. 12; deep closer is second/third much more often, which looks likely from outside post/class climb this race.
 
Race 10 – (3) UBER HANOVER suffered broken equipment Nov. 8, yet still closed for show behind Sin City Shark in Rideau Carleton 10000clm; he was last at the three-quarters as Zen da Ballykeel and Senior K battled for the lead, but had late acceleration in passing lane (in a field's-fastest 29.1); this is second week at same level, from better post. (9) MACH MESSIER and #7 Senior K start for trainer Mandy Archer; Stephane Brosseau catch drives as Guy Gagnon moves to #2 Matts Tuition; consistently hitting board at this level in his last five races, he's won from second tier back on June 7, and was runner-up from #9-hole Nov. 1. (2) MATTS TUITION has back-to-back wins for trainer/driver Guy Gagnon; exits conditioned for claiming race this week; his 1:56.2 win last week was his fastest of 2020. (1) ZEN DA BALLYKEEL is back in the hands of Pascal Berube, for whom he hit board in a leg and final of the Brian Jerome Series; his latest and fastest 2020 win was from the rail July 9 for Brosseau; hard-used in early battle Nov. 8. (5) STELIOS showed mild improvement last week, finishing fifth, yet closing in 29 flat and individually-timed in 1:55.3 mile that's his fastest since Oct. 8 place finish to Dylans Bank.

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Melissa Keith is a lifelong harness handicapper/bettor, Hervey/O'Brien Media Excellence Award-winning writer, and occasional racecaller. She is a contributor to TROT, Hoof Beats, Atlantic Post Calls, and Harness Racing Update, often covering topics related to wagering. Her most memorable bets include taking down the Truro Raceway Pick-7 pool for a $36 investment (it has not been offered since) and collecting $1,287 for a Woodbine Harness Pick-4 which cost a whopping $1.60.
 

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