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Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Sunday, December 26, 2021

Bet Now > Tips from the Pros > Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Sunday, December 26, 2021

Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Sunday, December 26, 2021

December 24, 2021
By Melissa Keith
Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Sunday, December 26, 2021
Best Bet – (5) AMERICAN SNIPER – Race 9
Spot Play – (3) DREYDL HANOVER – Race 13
20-cent Pick 5 – Race 5 – 4,5,6/1/1,3,8/1,2,6/5 = $5.40
20-cent Early Pick 4 – Race 2 – 5,6/3,5/2,5/3,4,5,6 = $6.40
20-cent Middle Pick 4 – Race 4 – 1,2,5,6/4,5,6/1/1,3,8 = $7.20
20-cent Another Middle Pick 4 – Race 6 – 1,5,8/1,3,8/1,2,6/5 = $5.40
20-cent Late Pick 4 – Race 8 – 2,6/5,6/2,5,7/1,5,8 = $7.20
20-cent Late Pick 4 – Race 10 – 2,5,6,7/1,5,8/4,6/3,4= $9.60
20-cent Last Pick 4 – Race 11 – 1,5,8/1,4,6/3,4,6/4,5 = $10.80
 
 
Race 1 —  (2) FIX A DRINK fulfilled expectations last start, a front-end winner at 6/1; overcame surface with 4-second variant to hold off the tough Archimed Alpha; first Rideau victory for lightly-raced gelding with same post this week.  (5) SOMETIMES WHEN is the visually impressive show finisher from the same race; nearly caught top pair who had already gained separation on the rest by the opening quarter; determined closer was gaining on Archimed Alpha at the wire.  (7) P C HEISENBERG improved on class jump December 16, with driver change to Marie-Claude Auger; tough outside post for winless-in-2021 trotter; field's-fastest last quarter (31.1) in previous match-up.
 
Race 2 —  (5) NATIONAL DEBT's last win was from tonight's post, on a card when The Light Speed wasn't entered; runner-up finish last Sunday, "methodically advancing" (-John MacMillan) from second-last at the half; ran out of racetrack; closed in field's co-fastest 29-flat; draws inside  (6) THE LIGHT SPEED, who is tied for second by wins among North American three-year-old pacers this year; ambitious first-over from fourth last Sunday, making front with ease around leaver Vanilla Malted (#4 this race).  (3) RACEMUP, who actually looked better in the race than on the program page; bided time following from single-file third behind The Light Speed last weekend; closed in same path as National Debt down the stretch, gaining on him and even tipping a little wider in the shadow of the wire.
 
Race 3 —  The tactical  (3) HOWMACFIESTY earned most recent win when top rivals got tough trips; November 18, she and Stephane Brosseau watched and waited a few lengths back in fifth as four mares battled for early command on first turn; underway nearing the three-quarters, she picked off a parked  (5) SAUBLE DELIGHTFUL, who has since reeled off two in a row for Guy Gagnon; diminishing margin of victory over tiring surface last start, when she still held off a late-charging  (7) YNOTHOS; simply not as strong from off the pace as when she's cutting the mile up front, an unlikely scenario here with outside post and three mares to her inside who also prefer that approach. 
 
Race 4 —  (5) BETTERTHANCHEESE is better than advertised: big back-to-back efforts at double-digit odds for lone filly; back in line to Steeven Genois, for whom she's shown consistent improvement since arriving in Ottawa.  (2) ARTHUR SHELBY did catch Betterthancheese in previous match-up December 16; maiden victory for two-year-old came after the 25/1 filly did all the heavy lifting on an unforgiving racing surface with 4-second variant; first up at the three-quarters, he only put her away in deep stretch.  (6) GODIVA WATCH ME hasn't raced since December 2, but returns with Guy Gagnon in the sulky; when he's good, he's good enough to overcome an outside post: note his two career victories were from Rideau's #6 and #8 post positions, albeit at lower classifications.
 
Race 5 —  2021 Coville Cup champions  (4) SIR A and Mike Healey are together again, with class relief on return from Mohawk (where he was a beaten 3/5 fave); successful stalker just missed matching his own lifetime best in previous Rideau start; John MacMillan stablemate of  (5) MONTYSGONEMARBLE, whose front-end prowess has produced most of his six seasonal wins here; likely to face more pressure from beaten 3/5 fave  (6) NAVALNY, who settled for pocket behind "Monty" December 16, was covered up by first-over challenger Hardy Mill Joe, and then made passing lane bid that fell short.  (3) HARDY MILL JOE was first to challenge "Monty" last start, matching strides at the three-quarters, staying with him to the finish.  (1)  FAVARO SEELSTER seems to be Samuel Fillion's pick over #2 Mach Tie Son; they hit board in both of their last two tries together, from inside posts; late speed.
 
Race 6 —  (1) BATTLE WITH DESIRE picks up catch driver Robbie Robinson, who drove in the first of her four consecutive Rideau wins (Samuel Fillion has seemingly chosen #7 Cold Creek Lacey); from rail, she's formidable despite giving way on lead December 16; outside post (#6), tiring track conditions and a persistent  (8) STEELMEATREASURE all but guaranteed there wouldn't be another gate-to-wire trip; strong first-over effort and prevailed in three-mare blanket finish; post hurts.  (5) OHBABYWEFOUNDLOVE put passing lane to good use for Guy Gagnon last race; Battle With Desire proved unusually vulnerable late due to cutting mile over 4-second variant "good" track, so keep closing effort in perspective. 
 
Race 7 —  (8) FOUR FINGER FLOYD and Guy Gagnon are almost unstoppable in Ottawa; recent victory from post 7 proves that this field's co-winningest horse of 2021 can leave with the best of them and overcome outermost post.  (1) HES GOT A VENDETTA ended a win drought last Sunday, also from rail; tipped at half to take on pacesetter; successfully held off latecomers down the stretch; saved ground early, shadowing Stormy Hall GB and  (3) ASHLEYSBEST from third through a 26.4 opening quarter; covered up in fourth by a second-over Twin B Laker en route to three-quarters; fresh but closed into traffic late.
 
Race 8 —  (6) NIGHT CLUB HANOVER has been facing much deeper company and pacing late-season 1:54-1:55 zone miles here; steady descent from Preferred Handicap can only mean good things for Steeven Genois and this closer, who last won at Rideau Nw800pscd level October 17.  (2) OUTLAW TURN N BURN's bad racing luck might come to an end on this class drop; starting from outside post 6, he and Guy Gagnon were second-over from sixth on first turn, ending up parked through most of mile on that 4-second variant track condition night; followed Levis Day on the outside, looming large as that rival made front at three-quarters; simply tired in stretch after game effort.  (1) PANTHEON SEELSTER also draws better this week; last Sunday, he was taken to the back of the pack right off the gate; third over from last at the opening quarter; three-wide on final turn around a backpedalling Aphro Star, in pursuit of leader Whats Inthe Esky A (#5 this race).
 
Race 9 —  (5) AMERICAN SNIPER cannot be overlooked at $8K claiming tag; deep closer reeled off back-to-back victories for Marie-Claude Auger at this level just over a month ago; class/post relief.  (6) DELLAS BOY impressed in latest; Jimmy Gagnon stays loyal to horse making third consecutive start with Lasix; followed Emptythetill from second-over fifth at the opening quarter, making it to first-up second at top of the stretch, but this was on the 4-second variant night, so that didn't happen. Class-dropper  (3) MACH LEE drew #8-hole last time he raced at this level; his most recent victory was from tonight's post, back on November 28, but there are stronger closers in tonight's field.
 
Race 10 —  Beaten 1/2 fave  (2) SPORTS JACKET seldom competes at this low classification; early-season player in Rideau Preferred Handicap company stalked and popped in latest class drop, but tonight's group is a little deeper; third-over voyage behind Big Petes Style didn't work out when that rival tired last Sunday; forced widest of all on last turn and in stretch drive.  (7)  PETER POOLE won at first asking in 2021 Rideau debut; Mohawk invader had better post December 12; first-over from fourth at the quarter, he continued gaining on leader Mach Jacobs before sprinting away on last turn for comfortable two-and-a-half-length victory.  (5)  THUNDERING JIM did win on class jump last Sunday in gate-to-wire style; in fact, two of his last three wins were when Guy Gagnon drove, nearly a month apart; front-end trip here leaves him vulnerable to top two selections' late moves.
 
Race 11 —  (5) PRINT MEDIA was a beaten Spot Play selection last start; blame Rock N Zeus, who interfered with him and others last Sunday, scattering back half of field on first turn; look beyond his latest front-end win on November 21: you'll find back-to-back autumn victories from mid-pack post positions in this track's $15K claiming company, both for Jimmy Gagnon and showing greater versatility.  (8) SHINE A LIGHT disappointed as Best Bet that same December 19 card; beaten 4/5 fave gained ground gradually throughout mile from far back, but couldn't quite catch a gate-to-wire Mach Jacobs; paced field's-co-fastest 29.1 closing quarter and missed by a diminishing half-length.  (1) STORMY HALL GB gets Robert Shepherd and rail after attention-getting effort last Sunday; 25/1 shot crossed over from post 7 to grab early lead and match strides with first-up winner Hes Got A Vendetta; gave way late, but not by much. 
 
Race 12 —  (6) FLYING ISA N had two moves last start, leaving aggressively to spar with Undercover Strike, then stalking from third and renewing his attack late, using passing lane; looks to be closing in on another win.  (1) AMIGO MIO was third in debut for Robert Shepherd December 16, but The Magic Of Life was a ridiculous overlay that race; third-over from sixth on the night of the optimistically "good' racing surface, he followed that winner's three-wide charge but from further back in the mud.  (4) ALEXUS EH followed from fourth in spaced-out field Sunday, making miscue on her own at the quarter; reunited with Steeven Genois, for whom class-dropping mare has hit board in all three recent tries at tonight's level.
 
Race 13 —  No regrets about putting  (3) DREYDL HANOVER on top last weekend; history of under-the-radar upsets at this venue; sent off at 15/1 from outside post Sunday, he was four-wide in early battle, then took back to fifth along pylons; shuffled to last in six-horse field by three-quarters, he gave Marie-Claude Auger a ground-saving sprint to the finish in a 28.2 last quarter matched (but not surpassed) by only three other horses on the entire card; may be his driver's choice over #6 Officer Jones.  (4) DYLANS BANK returns to scene of his recent multi-length victory, following disappointing result at Mohawk last Monday; class drop for frequent winner with predictably front-end-loving ways.  (6) OFFICER JONES debuts for Robert Shepherd; place specialist with late speed; all three 2021 wins were from this track's post 5 or inside; also entered December 29 at Flamboro.
 
Race 14 —  (4) FIT BITT didn't know he was 16/1 and certainly didn’t race like it last Sunday; stalking trip and passing lane sprint put him in range of Black Tie Bash by a diminishing length at the wire. Beaten 7/5 fave  (5) CROSSFIT went after Fitt Bit on first turn last Sunday, racing as a team to the quarter; grabbed lead and maintained it into the stretch, where he gave way late.  (8)  BLACK TIE BASH closed strongly into collapsing pace up front Sunday; his 29.2 closing quarter was field's fastest; beaten in last try from outside post at this venue.  (3) THE MAGIC OF LIFE is another beaten fave who finished third in latest, on class hike; even-money deep closer gapped last in short field last Sunday; needed to get around breaker Alexus Eh at the quarter; ran out of racetrack trotting field's-fastest (29.3) last quarter in pursuit of a long-gone  (1) RAISING RUSTY; fellow class-climber wired in that race, a tactic that seems unlikely against these.
 
 
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Melissa Keith is a lifelong harness handicapper/bettor, Hervey/O'Brien Media Excellence Award-winning writer, and occasional racecaller. She is a contributor to TROT, Hoof Beats, Atlantic Post Calls, and Harness Racing Update, often covering topics related to wagering. Her most memorable bets include taking down the Truro Raceway Pick-7 pool for a $36 investment (it has not been offered since) and collecting $1,287 for a Woodbine Harness Pick-4, which cost $1.60.


Photo by Clive Cohen/New Image Media

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