If you’re becoming familiar with the wonderful skills of handicapping a horse race you’ve likely heard things like, “pace makes the race” or “speed rules,” referring to the horses who love to go to the early lead out of the gate.
The basic premise is that a horse who gets the lead to himself and gets to slow the pace down, is going to be tough to pass in the stretch. Similarly, if there are several horses in a race who love to go to the lead, a pace battle could help the stretch runners.
In his book,
Handicapping 101, Daily Racing Form's Brad Free noted, “Front running horses win more frequently than late-runners. In a study of more than 15,000 races, handicapping author William Quirin found that 26 per cent were won by the horse who led at the first pace call – after the first quarter mile in sprints, after the first half mile in routes.”
In addition, Free said, “Horses running style rarely change. A speed horse remains a speed horse (until he wears down at the end of his career).”
An example of a true front running horse is Paramount Prince, the 2023 King's Plate winner. In almost all of his 10 career races, Paramount Prince has been on the lead at the first call of his races. His wins have come when he is on the lead by himself. Last weekend in the Eclipse Stakes on June 1, Paramount Prince was taken off the early pace as a stablemate, Get Smokin, who has the same style, sprinted to the lead in his first attempt on the Tapeta surface. Neither horse has ever won without getting the lead to themselves. The contested pace battle set the race up for the winner, Palazzi.
Race 5 at Fort Erie on June 4, a strong field of older horses at five furlongs, offers an interesting study of pace. Is there one horse in the field who is quicker than the others and will that horse get clear and steal the race?
There are a few horses in the field of eight who have shown front running speed in their races. It is important to note that horses leading early in six- and seven-furlong races are not necessarily as quick at five furlongs – there’s a big difference in the speed needed to win races at those three distances.
Let's take a look at the field:
No. 1 – Victory March had a lot of success last fall at Fort Erie with three wins. This will be his first attempt at five furlongs and he is not likely a front runner.
No. 2 – Core is getting his first race of the season and he won four races at five furlongs in 2023 and almost won his season debut at the distance. He loves the distance but he has never actually had the early lead at the first two calls.
No. 3 – Mister Banjoman comes in from Florida where he had the lead at almost every call of his last 4 races. His two outings at 5 1/2 furlongs were wins and he has often been able to speed a half mile in sub-45 seconds. Also note that his Timeform US Pace (Early) number is 113, second highest in the field.
No. 4 – Kid Forester is making his first start at Fort Erie and his first start on a traditional dirt track. He is a stretch runner who will want a hot pace up front.
No. 5 – Free Square boasts the highest Timeform Pace number of 114 and he certainly had big speed at Mountaineer when he won by more than six lengths in April at six furlongs. He has won at five or 5 1/2 furlongs and he is getting a class drop for his first outing at Fort Erie.
No. 6 – Half to Reload has showed speed at 5 1/2 furlongs on occasion but his half mile fractional times are usually on the slower side than the 44 seconds shown by Mister Banjoman.
No. 7 – Truly Mischief is another newcomer to Fort Erie and he has also shown speed in his races but mostly at distances longer than five and 5 1/2 furlongs. This Florida invader has won at the shorter distances in the past and at least he is able to stay close to fast middle fractions.
No. 8 – Strong Ending is at his best in longer sprint races but he has won at 5 1/2 furlongs and he would be helped by a fast pace in front of him.
How to play the race:
At 6-1 in the morning line odds, No. 3 Mister Banjoman offers good value considering he could be the quickest horse out of the gate. I will play him in an exactor box with No. 5 Free Square and No. 7 Truly Mischief.
$3 Exacta Box 3, 5, 7
$10 win 3
Good luck with your wagers!
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