Just what exactly are these speed index numbers in the Ajax Downs program and how can they help you pick a winner?
Similar to Thoroughbred racing, there are calculations available to judge how fast or slow a horse raced compared to races at the same distance over time. It’s not an exact science, horses are, after all, beautiful living and breathing mammals, but the speed index (the number beside the bold number in each horse's race record) can be a useful guide.
In addition, the bold number is the E Speed number, or the Equibase Speed Figure, which is also purported to take into consideration the condition of the track.
Essentially, the higher the number, the faster the horse's performance.
However, if you love to bet on the races, you should know a bit more about how the numbers were earned. Here’s an examination of the speed index numbers for horses entered in Wednesday's Open Derby (Race 6) at Ajax Downs.
When is a high number not a high number?
There are many factors that can influence a speed index number, such as wind, race setup and track condition.
Wind is a factor that is recorded in the Quarter Horse program (fifth column from left), and it lists the direction of the wind and speed in miles per hour. A strong headwind (over 15 m.p.h.) could slow a horse down, whereas a tailwind might speed a horse up. Additionally, strong crosswinds could have virtually any effect.
SUGAR N PRIDE (No. 2) won the Ontario Sires Futurity on Sept. 13 last year into a 15 m.p.h. headwind, earning an 81 speed index which could actually be considered a bit higher. He didn't duplicate the effort in his next two races but had bad starts each time.
Meanwhile, No. 5 GENERAL SKYWALKER, who posted speed indexes of 81 and 80 last year, had just a 70 in his season debut on May 8. Note that there was a very blustery 24 m.p.h. cross wind that day and this gelding broke slowly. Those factors no doubt combined to make his speed index on the lower side.
Take a look at No. 3 RBYBYBABY, who is making her first start at Ajax Downs and first start since last fall. Before this filly won the maiden race on Oct. 24, her best speed index was an 85 at Remington Park last summer.
In her 2023 finale, which came at Will Rogers Downs in Oklahoma, she yielded a 90 speed index, easily the best of any horse in the Open Derby field. But note that the track was listed as muddy that day and if you viewed the results charts on Equibase, you would see the track was also sealed.
In other words, the moisture was pressed out of the track so horses were racing over what would be similar to a wet beach and a fast surface.
If you look at all of the results from Will Rogers from Oct. 25, you will see one race went in track record time and most winners running faster times than they ever have before. Perhaps the 90 earned by Rbybybaby is not quite as strong as it appears on paper?
Rbybybaby will open up at just 3-2 when wagering opens on Wednesday.
Lastly, CINDY LOO WHO, who won her first try at Ajax Downs on May 8 on that windy day, won with an 81 speed index (and the comment line says “easy winner”), perhaps she ran a bit faster than the 81?
Of course, once you have narrowed down your favourite horses in the race, let the odds board be your guide. Seek out betting value for your dollar, remember the favourite only wins one-third of the time!
FIELD FOR THE 2ND RUNNING OF THE OPEN DERBY
Ajax Downs, May 22, 300 yards, Purse $30,250, Race 6
1 WILLIE LUMP LUMP Lauren Spada Alexis Sanchez 7-2
2 SUGAR N PRIDE Bob Broadstock Rachael Isaacs 3-1
3 RBYBYBABY Scott Reid Carly Furlonger 3-2
4 EYE TEMPT YOU Jason Pascoe Brian Bell 4-1
5 GENERAL SKYWALKER Bob Broadstock Ramiro Castillo 2-1
6 CINDY LOO WHO Jason Pascoe Diego Benitez 6-1
7 FIESTY FEEBEE Rick Kennedy Tony Phillips 10-1
8 CHASING BUTTERFLIES Rick Kennedy Cristian Benitez 8-1
Reminder: you can watch all of Ajax Downs' replays on its YouTube Channel.
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