Canada’s unique Triple Crown series, presented by OLG, makes a stop at Fort Erie Race Track on Tuesday for the $400,000 Prince of Wales Stakes, the middle jewel of the prestigious series for Canadian-bred three-year-olds.
The Prince of Wales is slightly shorter than the first jewel, the King’s Plate, at 1-3/16 miles, and the race is run on a traditional dirt track, while the Plate is run on Woodbine’s Tapeta surface. The Triple Crown wraps up next month with the Breeders’ Stakes back at Woodbine at 1-1/2 miles on grass.
Plate winner Caitlinhergrtness, a filly, is bypassing the Prince of Wales but the famous race has an intriguing group of 10 entrants this year, including five who competed in the Plate.
Profile of a Prince of Wales winner
All but one of the last 10 Prince of Wales winners competed in the Plate in their previous race and two of them, Mighty Heart in 2020 and Wonder Gadot in 2018, won the Plate. The lone, recent Prince of Wales winner that didn’t compete in the Plate was Cool Catomine in 2017.
Trainer Mark Casse has saddled four Prince of Wales winners dating back to 2009 and Kevin Attard has won three times, including two of the last three runnings. In this year’s race, Casse has two entrants and Attard has four.
The winning running style of the Prince of Wales winner in the last 10 years has been predominantly speed or stalk with just one winner, Breaking Lucky, in 2015 coming from more than two lengths off the pace to win.
As the Prince of Wales is run on a dirt track, and the majority of the entrants each year haven’t even tried that surface, favourites have a lean record in the race. In fact, the average odds on the last 10 winners of Fort Erie’s signature race is about 6-1, a $14.00 payoff for a $2 win bet.
What’s important to note with a Prince of Wales entrant is whether they had a workout over a dirt track. Woodbine has a training dirt surface and most trainers will test their horses over it before shipping to Fort Erie. Some trainers have shipped their horses to Fort Erie to test the surface.
For example, Kevin Attard sent Velocitor and Haddassah to Fort Erie for preps before their Prince of Wales victories.
As for a horse’s current form heading into the Prince of Wales, it’s not uncommon for a horse to win at Fort Erie despite a poor outing in his previous race, in particular if it was the Plate. The likelihood of a smaller field, plus the change in surface are often pleasing changes for horses who go on to the second jewel of the Triple Crown.
Here’s a look at the profiles of the entrants in this year’s Prince of Wales:
1 – AIROSA – 15-1 in the morning line and, like Plate winner Caitlinhergrtness, a filly trained by Kevin Attard. She was a stakes winner on grass in 2023 but became sick with a virus. She came off the layoff on July 27 and was a closing sixth in the Grade 3 Ontario Colleen Stakes on turf.
More significantly, Airosa has been working like the wind on the dirt in the last month, including a stunning five-furlong prep in :57 at Woodbine on Aug. 27. She also worked fast at Fort Erie on Sept. 3.
2 – VITALITY – He seems to be improving and he came from far off the pace to be sixth in the Plate, about three lengths behind Midnight Mascot. He has a strong dirt pedigree, but he must beware of a possible slow, early pace. 6-1 in the morning line.
3 – WYOMING BILL – He’s 10-1 and he just won his maiden in his third career start for trainer Catherine Day Phillips, who won this race in 2004. This is a well-bred son of top North American sire Curlin, a dirt sire.
4 – PASSIONED – This Maryland-based gelding is trying to emulate his half brother Coltimus Prime, who won this race in 2017. This gelding is the only horse in the field with dirt experience and both of his career wins came on that surface. He was recently third despite a wide trip in an allowance race at Laurel Park. Listed at 10-1.
5 – MIDNIGHT MASCOT – The morning line favourite has been third in his last three races, including the King’s Plate. He got going too late at Woodbine but finished well. Champion rider Kazushi Kimura gets his first ride on the Mark Casse trainee. He’s listed at 5-2 but anything about 9-5 is good value on this colt.
6 – JOKESTAR – His owners and breeders, Al and Bill Ulwelling have won two of the last three Prince of Wales Stakes and they have two horses in this year’s field. Trainer Kevin Attard notes this gelding is mostly a plodding type and he ambled along to be fifth in the Plate. 9-2 odds are a bit on the low side.
7 – BEDARD – Looking for his first win after three consecutive second-place finishes, he’s another Attard trainee and has worked fast on the dirt with Airosa. 10-1.
8 – SCAT FACTOR – His owner put up $12,500 to supplement this grey gelding to the race. He won his maiden for $7,500 claiming at Woodbine and recently was third in the slop at Fort Erie in an allowance race. 30-1 longshot.
9 – PIERRE – He was my selection to win the Plate and at 40-1 and ended up running a noble race to be fourth. His half brother Harlan Estate was a close second in the Prince of Wales in 2022. Morning line is a bit low at 4-1.
10 – ESSEX SERPENT – Led for just over half the Plate but folded while pace rival My Boy Prince almost won. His breeding is best suited for grass. Listed at 8-1.
Summing it up, I like a three-horse Exactor Box in the Prince of Wales of 4, 5 and 9: Passioned, Midnight Mascot and Pierre.
Play it for $2 and it will cost you $12.
FEATURED PHOTO: Midnight Mascot winning the 2024 Woodstock Stakes. (Michael Burns Photo)
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