Ontario bred two-year-old Quarter Horses race for big money on July 31 at Ajax Downs in the final of the $59,265 Ontario Bred Futurity at 300 yards.
A number of stakes races on the Ajax calendar, in particular those for two-year-olds, require starters to compete in Trials if the stakes race has a large number of paid nominations. Trials are usually held about three weeks before the final and the fastest 10 times advance to the final.
You might assume that any horse that wins a Trial for a stakes race is one of the likely winners of the final but that is not necessarily the case.
A horse's trip in the Trial or how the race sets up can affect a horse's performance and lead to improvement in the final. Conversely, things may go smoothly for a horse in a Trial but not as well in the Trial.
In addition, while the Trials offer purse money and are races everyone wants to win, the ultimate goal is the final.
A look back
Here are the Trial winners and the winner of the final of the 2023 Ontario Bred Futurity for two-year-olds:
Trial winners Pretty Magicall and Sugar N Pride (July 12, 2023) had similar race times in their victories, although Pretty Magicall was just 5-2 while Sugar N Pride was a whopping 19-1. Pretty Magicall defeated three rivals in her Trial while racing unchallenged on the lead. Sugar N Pride battled all the way to win by a neck in what was his first career race.
In the final, despite his narrow win, Sugar N Pride was bet down to just 7-5, offering little value compared to the others in the field. Pretty Magicall was a better 4-1, but it was uncertain how she would fare if she was challenged on the lead.
It was Snow Magically Sweet at 7-1 who took the final coming off a third-place finish to Sugar N Pride. The comment line from the results chart from her Trial performance said, “Raced wide, good finish.” Snow Magically Sweet edged Sugar N Pride and Pretty Magicall setting up a $54.00 exactor and a $125.00 triactor, each for a $2 wager.
The 2024 Futurity final
The first thing that should be noted when looking at this year's Trials for the Futurity is that they were held a week later than usual because racing was cancelled due to weather on the original date of July 10.
The 10 fastest qualifiers from the July 17 Trials included winners No. 2 HAD TO BE FABULOUS and No. 7 ELVIS THE FAMOUS, both trained by Bryn Robertson. Josh Scott rode both horses to their wins and has chosen Had to Be Fabulous for the final.
Had to be Fabulous has won all three of her career races and while she had to work a little harder to take the Trial, she did get past the good colt No. 9 THE BATMANN and improving No. 6 RUNAWAY FATE. The race had to be hand-timed due to timer malfunction, so there’s only an unofficial time of 15.820 for an 83 speed index.
Finishing fourth in the race was the fast closing No. 4 PEIGHTMEADIAMOND, who had a bit of a slow start.
Elvis the Famous overcame some bumping and a bobble to win his Trial with a 76 speed index, holding off No. 5 FATE ZOOMIN, who was three lengths clear of the rest of the field. Fate Zoomin, who won the Stallion Auction Futurity in a previous race, was 4-5 in the Trial and she appeared to just miss winning without being hard ridden.
And while, Had to be Fabulous is certainly the horse to beat, I believe a wager on Fate Zoomin will offer slightly better value. I also believe Elvis the Famous deserves a long look because of his troubled start.
My plays for the Futurity, Race 7 on July 31, is $2 exactor box 2, 5, 7 = $6.00 and $10 to win on No. 5 Fate Zoomin.
Who do you like?
Note: Watch a replay!
Most racetracks have a dedicated Youtube channel to watch race replays. Ajax Downs has its own channel and here are the videos of the two Trials for this week's Ontario Bred Futurity:
Trial 1 – July 17, 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXwF2iv2fZo
Trial 2, July 17, 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1qh7PhmiL8
FIELD FOR THE FOURTH ONTARIO BRED FUTURITY
July 31, Ajax Downs, 300 yards, 2-year-olds, Race 6
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Morning Line Odds
1 First for You A Sanchez L Spada 8/1
*2 Had to Be Fabulous J Scott B Robertson 3/1
3 Look Twice C Jeschke C Bourgeois 12/1
4 Peighntmeadiamond B Bell R W Kennedy 8/1
5 Fate Zoomin C Benitez J McInerney 10/1
6 Runaway Fate R Isaacs B Broadstock 4/1
*7 Elvis the Famous D I Benitez B Robertson 6/1
8 Last Cold Bud B Bell J Pascoe 10/1
9 The Batmann C Furlonger S Reid 7/2
10 Firing Red Lucy R S Castillo S Reid 15/1
*Trial winner
FEATURED PHOTO: ntario Bred Futurity Trial winner ELVIS THE FAMOUS and runner-up FATE ZOOMIN compete in the final on July 31 (New Image Media Photo).
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