The old adage, “What have you done for me lately” plays a role in how the betting public approaches a horse race.
Horses with the best, most recent performances will attract much of the wagering support. Sometimes this can lead to false favourites.
One of my preferred approaches to seeking out a winner is to look at a horse's previous races that came under the same conditions as today's race. Does the distance and surface fit the horse? Perhaps his trainer has not been able to find a desired race for his runner in recent weeks but would rather let the horse have some exercise and competition rather than staying in the barn. Those races may ultimately not be the best spots and thus a horse's recent form can become a bit hazy.
Tracing back a horse's race record can lead to finding one who may be overlooked by the betting public and we are always on the lookout for a longshot.
The last race at Fort Erie Race Track on Tuesday, August 13 (post time 7:46 p.m.) is a seven-furlong tour of the grass course with a big field with several contenders. The image with this article is the
Daily Racing Form past performances of a couple of horses in the race, No. 7 JUSTIN'S WAY and No. 8 GUS'S GAMBLE.
At first glance you may think that Justin’s Way might not be considered a contender in this race, except that his two starts in 2024 came on the Fort Erie main track, one of them over a sloppy track. You can see from looking at this five-year-old's last 12 starts that turf and Tapeta (Woodbine's main track surface) are his preferred surfaces.
Justin's Way won on the Fort Erie turf last August and just about won on the Woodbine turf in the fall of 2022. That may seem like a long time ago, but this guy only had seven races last year and he ran well in most of those starts.
With his two sprints under his belt coming into this move to the grass, I expect Justin's Way, who is 6-1 in the morning line odds, to be a top contender under jockey Edgar Zenteno.
Beside Justin's Way in the gate is Gus's Gamble, who also runs his best races on the turf or on Woodbine's Tapeta surface. He has won on the Fort Erie turf and had two good placings in his first two starts of 2024, both on the turf. His most recent race came on the dirt and he wasn’t a factor.
An interesting aspect of Gus's Gamble's recent races is that he’s often a longshot. He was 12-1 both times he ran on the grass this year and he finished in the top three.
Listed at 8-1 in the morning line odds, Gus's Gamble in another entrant in Tuesday's race that has clouded recent form but pleasing earlier races.
Betting either horse to win is the most logical wagering strategy and, as long as the rain doesn’t come and wash the race to the main track, both horses look appealing. Tab the weather and the odds on Justin's Way and Gus's Gamble closer to post time before making your final decision.
Possible wagers, Race 8, Fort Erie (if race stays on the grass):
$10 win No. 7 Justin's Way
$1 Exactor Part Wheel 7, 8/ 1, 4, 7, 8
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