Handicapping the Princess Derby at Ajax Downs

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Handicapping the Princess Derby at Ajax Downs

August 6, 2024
By Jennifer Morrison
Handicapping the Princess Derby at Ajax Downs

Wednesday's $51,840 Princess Derby at Ajax Downs is the top race of the year for three-year-old filly Quarter Horses and the favourites in the field all have impressive recent wins.
 
And while it doesn't happen that often, you may occasionally see a maiden, a horse that has yet to win a race, in a stakes race – and occasionally, they even win.
 
Canadian horse racing has plenty of examples of maidens winning stakes races. Scatter the Gold won the famous Queen's Plate at Woodbine in 2000 as a maiden and more recently, the Star Shoot Stakes this spring at that track was won by the maiden Sabatini.
 
If a non-winner is in a stakes race it can mean the horse's connections think the horse has shown enough in previous races and deserves a chance to be in the race. Additionally, stakes race purses are higher than that of maiden races and a placing in a stakes race for a filly or mare can add to their residual value.
 
The 10th running of the Princess Derby on Aug. 7 had a field made up of fillies who were in two Trials at 350-yards on July 21. Heavily favoured RBYBYBABY (No. 6) won her Trial despite a very rocky start when she traded bumps with rival Lady Alice. No. 2 EXPEDIANT, a stablemate of Rbybybaby, eked out a victory in her Trial, winning by a nose in a three-horse photo finish.
 
Both Trial winners earned an 87 speed index.
 
For Rbybybaby, owned by John Wilson and trained by Scott Reid, it was her fourth consecutive victory and she’s undefeated at Ajax Downs. Her manner of victory in her Trial, even after the poor start, was impressive and she will be a deserving favourite.
 
Expediant, who also races for the Wilson/Reid combination, had challengers on either side of her at the finish of her Trial and one of them, SPECIAL SPICE (No. 3), was gaining ground quickly.
 
An Ontario-bred for Erik and Joyce Lehtinen, Special Spice has raced three times in her career but her first career start was messed up when her rider lost his stirrups. She has since been second in consecutive races. In the Trial, Special Spice missed by a nose and, according to Equibase results chart, “needed one more jump.”
 
This is a fast, improving filly who looks like a very logical top three contender for the final and, at morning line odds of 6-1, she’s worth a win bet, too.
 
I will also play a Pick 3 bet on the last three races at Ajax Downs on Wednesday, ending with the Princess Derby.
 
Wagering strategy for the Princess Derby:
 
$10 Exactor Box 2, 3 = $20.00
$10 Win 3
$1 Pick 3 (Races 3, 4 and 5) - 2, 4, 5 / 1 / 2, 3 = $6.00
 
Here’s the Field with Morning Line Odds for the 10th Princess Derby (note some riders are named on multiple horses, changes will be announced on race day)
 
1 CINDY LOO WHO      JB Botello J Pascoe  6-1
2 EXPEDIANT                C Jeschke S Reid  7-2
3 SPECIAL SPICE          D Benitez J Pascoe  6-1
4 PRETTY MAGICALL  D Benitez J Pascoe  15-1
5 DAPHNEE                    C Furlonger S Reid  12-1
6 RBYBYBABY              C Furlonger S Reid  3-1
7 TCB STORMY EPISODE B Bell J Tavares  8-1
8 SECRET IVORY GIRL JB Botello J Pascoe  10-1
9 SNOW MAGICALLY SWEET JB Botello J Pascoe  10-1
10 LADY ALICE             C Benitez J Bogar  4-1

FEATURED PHOTO: RBYBYBABY is unbeaten at Ajax Downs since she was purchased in Oklahoma last fall by John Wilson (New Image Media photo)

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