Ten of the best three-year-old Quarter Horses will contest the $56,880 Ontario Bred Derby at Ajax Downs on July 3. It’s an evenly-matched race so settling on who to bet relies on several approaches to your handicapping. In particular, value on the odds board.
What is value?
How you view a horse's chances of winning a race compared to how the public views his chances will tell you what kind of value you’re getting for your wagering dollars.
If you believe a horse should be a strong favourite, say 2-1 (a $6.00 payoff), and the horse is going off at 4-1 by the public, that can be considered good value. Of course, what one person believes of a horse's chances of winning will differ from another, and it takes a lot of studying of races to find out if you are a good judge of value.
The morning line oddsmaker can help in that respect as they predict how the public will bet each race in the track program.
The field for the Ontario Bred Derby with morning line odds is below:
The favourite at 3-1 (an $8.00 win payoff), according to the track oddsmaker, is No. 4 GENERAL SKYWALKER at 3-1. When General Skywalker won the fastest of two Trials for the Derby on June 12, he was a 10-1 longshot. Based on that win he will certainly be lower odds for the final and 3-1 are fair odds for the speedy gelding (Note: For more on understanding the odds, visit Ontario Racing's handy guide to the odds
here).
Two rivals who were gaining on General Skywalker in the late stages figure to be well bet by the public. No. 8 STORMINN NORMAN is 7-2 and No. 7 HAWKIN THE STRAW is listed as a 4-1 chance.
The latter, winner of the prestigious Alex Picov Futurity last fall, was all the rage in the Trial as he was hammered down to 4-5 odds in his first race of the year. I expect Hawkin the Straw to be lower odds than 4-1 and would consider 2-1 on that colt fair odds.
The oddsmaker has made the other Trial winner, No. 6 SENATOR OF MAGIC, the fourth choice in the race at 6-1. This Jason Pascoe trainee was winning for the first time in his career in the slower of the two Trials and several of his rivals that day had trouble early in the race. One of those was No. 10 SUGAR N PRIDE who stumbled at the start and lost all chance as the 9-5 favourite. Sugar N Pride is listed at 12-1 in the morning line, an enticing price considering how much the public loved him last time.
Playing the Ontario Bred Derby
Certainly, you may want to wait and see what the on-track odds are before playing the Ontario Bred Derby on Wednesday, but based on morning line odds and this corner's view of the contenders, the horses to play are Nos. 4, 7, 8 and 10.
I like the odds on Hawkin the Straw and Storminn Norman while the longshot pick is Sugar n Pride.
$2 Exacta 7, 8 / 4, 7, 8, 10 = $12.00
$10 Win 8 (at 3-1 or higher)
Good luck with your wagers!
FIELD FOR THE 13TH ONTARIO BRED DERBY
Ajax Downs, Race 6, July 3, post time 3:45 p.m.
Post Horse Jockey Trainer Morning Line Odds
1. Pretty Magicall R. Moreno J. Pascoe 10-1
2. Chasing Butterflies I. Mosquiera R. Kennedy 8-1
3. Wicked Wild Willie D. Benitez N. Clark 8-1
4. General Skywalker R. Castillo B Broadstock 3-1
5. Eyem Maximus C. Jeschke C. Bourgeois 15-1
6. Senator of Magic C. Benitez J. Pascoe 6-1
7. Hawkin the Straw JB Botello J Pascoe 4-1
8 Storminn Norman B. Bell J. Tavares 7-2
9. Daphnee C. Furlonger S. Reid 10-1
10 Sugar N Pride R. Isaacs B Broadstock 12-1
FEATURED IMAGE: General Skywalker holds off a charging Storminn Norman (No. 3) (New Image Media Photo)
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