The arrival of summer brings out a fresh crop of two-year-olds, and with these races comes an entirely different handicapping puzzle for fans.
The juvenile races of early summer are filled with youngsters who have not raced before or have had limited experience, making information for the bettor is skimpy.
But two-year-old races can also be not only fun to decipher, but profitable by using factors such as replays, workouts, trainers and breeding, information that can be found readily on the web.
On June 12, Ajax Downs presents the $31,050 Bonus Futurity for two-year-olds at 250 yards in Race 6 of the seven-race card, part of the Pick 5 and Pick 4 bets.
A field of seven has been assembled with several who began their career in a race on May 29. There are also two first-time starters in the field.
Check out a race replay
Most racetracks in North America have replays of all of its races on YouTube or on the track website. Ajax Downs has previous races on both of those sites.
Watching previous races of horses is an invaluable tool for handicapping a race, in particular with Quarter Horses where the smallest spot of trouble during the short races can mean the difference between winning and losing.
As there are a few in the Bonus Futurity who are exiting the same race, including race favourite No. 7 HAD TO BE FABULOUS, it’s worth taking a look at the replay for that dash. You can watch the replay
here.
Had to Be Fabulous broke from Post Position 3 in that May 29 maiden race and broke fairly well before surging to the lead and winning at 2-1. It was a professional performance by the Ontario-bred filly. Runner-up No. 2 FIRING RED LUCY also had a good start from the gate and was chasing the winner throughout, holding second place by the finish.
I expect an improved effort from No. 1 BOBBIS MAGIC BEANS, a colt who was the favourite for the May 29 race for trainer Jason Pascoe. Bobbis Magic Beans drew the sometimes-intimidating rail post in that career debut and with a check of the head-on view of the start, you will see the colt break towards the inside, while Firing Red Lucy breaks to the outside (at the 39-second mark of the video).
Both two-year-olds recovered to race well with Bobbis Magic Beans surging past all of his rivals just past the finish line. Take a look at his gallop out at the 24-second mark of the video, perhaps with a straighter start in the Futurity the colt will be much closer to winning.
As a side note, the May 29 race was held on a windy day which had a 12 m.p.h. headwind which could have slowed down the final time of the race, 14.16, which resulted in a modest 59 speed index.
First-time starters
Predicting how a young horse will perform in the first race of their life is tricky but there are hints available. There are two beginners in the Bonus Futurity and both are trained by John McInerney, whose first starter of the 2024 season was a close second (using the trainer search link on
Equibase.com).
No. 3 FATE ZOOMIN and No. 5 NIIGAANII each have three workouts on the same days and Fate Zoomin worked a bit faster in all three of those preps. This does not necessarily mean the two juveniles worked together but Fate Zoomin does have the faster workout times.
Additionally, it’s always important to note any horse than can work 250-yards in under 14 seconds. Fate Zoomin's last workout on May 23, from the gate, was clocked in 13.73, which translates to a 77 speed index.
You can also find some information about a horse's pedigree using Equibase and the horse search page. Both two-year-olds are by Ontario stallion Peighnt Your Fate, who won his career debut and was placed in top level races in the U.S.
Eazoom, the dam of Fate Zoomin, was a two-time winner and, coincidentally, her four-year-old son Da Zoom competes in Race 7 Wednesday, riding a four-race winning streak. Niigaanii's dam Sheza Fast Mom won six of 23 career races.
In the walking ring
Whether you’re at the track or watching on simulcast, it’s always a good idea to take a look at the two-year-olds as they get saddled and head out to the track. Are they relaxed or a little too skittish? You want your horse to have the look of controlled energy while not getting worked up before the race.
Bonus Futurity betting strategy
I will add a further note to the Bonus Futurity with regards to post positions. The outside post in any Quarter Horse race tends to lure horses to break outwardly which can be costly. As Had to be Fabulous has drawn the outside post for the big race this week, she might be a vulnerable favourite.
Wager: $2 Exactor 1, with 3, 7
$5 Win on No. 1
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