Canadian horse racing's classic season gets underway Sunday, July 23 at Woodbine with the 68
th running of the Woodbine Oaks, the premier race for 3-year-old fillies foaled in this country.
The Oaks is the first jewel of the Triple Tiara, which continues with the Bison City Stakes (Aug. 18) and ends with the Wonder Where Stakes (Sept. 10).
The Oaks, a 1 1/8 mile race on the Tapeta track, has a total purse of $500,000 with $300,000 going to the winner.
The race has been won by some of Canada’s greatest fillies, such as Flaming Page, Northernette, Dance Smartly and Lexie Lou.
A field of 14 has entered this year's Oaks and with no standout, it is a fascinating betting race.
Looking at past runnings of the Oaks we can try to find some historical trends to use as a guide for picking your favourites.
Distance Factor – Running Style
The Oaks is the first time this year these fillies will race at the challenging distance of 1 1/8 miles but history shows that an Oaks winner had a win or a good effort in a route race (on Tapeta or turf) that year or as a 2-year-old. A good effort would be considered a top three finish or within four lengths of the winner.
Most of the last 10 winners of the Oaks came from off the pace to win except for longshot Academic, who led all the way in 2015 to win at 66 to 1 under jockey Justin Stein. Since this year's field is the largest in recent memory, there is a strong chance of a contested, early pace battle.
A solid foundation is a strong asset for an Oaks starter, with experience in longer races being key. No maiden has won the Oaks since its inauguration in 1956.
Note – Since 2020 the Woodbine Oaks has been run later than its previous date of the second week of June.
Breeding-Trainer
Fillies with plenty of stamina in their breeding have had the best success in the Oaks. Leading stallions in Canada (Sligo Bay (Ire), Milwaukee Brew) and the U.S. (such as Ghostzapper, Curlin and Smart Strike) have produced multiple Oaks winners. Look for these sires on either side of an Oaks starter.
Trainer Kevin Attard has won the last two Oaks, with Moira and Munny for Ro, and he had the second and third-place finishers in 2020. He has four entrants this year.
Mark Casse has won this race three times, most recently in 2014 with Lexie Lou.
Recent Form
When handicapping any major stakes race, you want your horse coming into the race in good form, unless there is an excuse for a poor recent performance.
Trainers of Oaks hopefuls will tend to point their horses to the race and plan to have their starter peaking on the right day.
Look at the chart below in the notes section and you will see that six of the last 10 Oaks winners were making their third start of the year and two others were making their second start of the year.
Recent Oaks winners either prepped in the Selene Stakes (G3) against open company, the Fury Stakes or in easier races. One recent winner, Desert Ride, had never raced on anything other than grass.
The
Beyer Speed Figure par (Beyers are found in
Daily Racing Form) for Oaks winners in their race before the Oaks is 81 (last 10 runnings) while the Oaks-winning par is 88.
Projecting how a horse will perform on a particular day is one of the tricks of handicapping. In 3-year-old races you can see that most of the winners were on an upward spiral in Beyer Figures.
Who are the contenders for this year's Woodbine Oaks?
Incorporating some of the historical trends into handicapping Sunday's Oaks (race 10) I have selected four fillies that I will play in multi-leg wagers (e.g., Pick 3's, Pick 4):
10 – WICKENHEISER – A Kevin Attard trainee who has a strong, stretch run and she should have lots of pace to chase. She has been powering along through some strong workouts and Woodbine's leading rider Kazushi Kimura will ride. Projecting she can increase her latest Beyer of 76 to an 80+
2 – BIG BRASS BED – American shipper from the Chad Brown barn (he sent a filly to the Oaks last year to be third) has never raced on anything but grass but she has a good, off-the-pace style, a 78 Beyer Figure from her maiden win and her latest was trouble-filled.
11 – TICKER TAPE HOME – She is the probable favourite, but her route distance attempts have not been great. She does, however, have good foundation, strong Beyer Figures and is trained by Mark Casse.
1- FLYSOFREEASHLEEB – Yes, she is a maiden, but this gal is making her third start of the season and she showed good improvement from her May outing to her latest. And her latest race was messed up by some traffic trouble. She seems to be the one filly who will like the distance the best.
RECENT FORM FOR LAST 10 WOODBINE OAKS WINNERS
| Year |
Winner |
Sire |
Trainer |
Prior Start Beyer |
Oaks
Beyer |
Notes |
| 2022 |
Moira |
Ghostzapper |
K. Attard |
Fury Stakes - 83 |
83 |
2nd Start |
| 2021 |
Munnyfor Ro |
Munnings |
K. Attard |
G3 Selene - 75 |
82 |
7th Start |
| 2020 |
Curlin’s Voyage |
Curlin |
J. Carroll |
Fury Stakes - 87 |
90 |
3rd Start |
| 2019 |
Desert Ride |
Candy Ride (ARG) |
N. Howard |
Allowance - 75 |
83 |
5th Start/1st on Tapeta |
| 2018 |
Dixie Moon |
Curlin |
C. Day Phillips |
G3 Selene – 90 |
88 |
3rd Start |
| 2017 |
Holy Helena |
Ghostzapper |
J. Jerkens |
Maiden – 85 |
94 |
3rd start ever |
| 2016 |
Neshama |
Sligo Bay (IRE) |
C. Day Phillips |
Allowance - 78 |
81 |
3rd Start |
| 2015 |
Academic |
Henny Hughes |
R. Baker |
Maiden Win - 65 |
88 |
2nd Start/66-1 |
| 2014 |
Lexie Lou |
Sligo Bay (IRE) |
M. Casse |
Fury Stakes - 83 |
95 |
3rd Start |
| 2013 |
Nipissing |
Niigon |
R. Halden |
G3 Selene - 85 |
90 |
3rd Start |
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