Woodbine has four stakes races on this weekend's cards, including three graded events. The G2 Royal North and G3 Belle Mahone are on Saturday June 2 and the G3 Eclipse Stakes is on Sunday June 3.
Sunday also features an Ontario Sired Stakes, the first running of the Pink Lloyd Stakes (formerly Ontario Jockey Club Stakes) named after one of the greatest Ontario bred sprinters in history.
Examining previous winners of stakes races can often provide the racing fan with a guide of what to look for when handicapping one of these big events, so let's take a look at Saturday's G2 Royal North and Sunday's G3 Eclipse.
ROYAL NORTH STAKES (G2); Saturday, June 3, Woodbine, Race 7
$175,000-added; 6 1 /2 furlongs, turf; 4-year-olds & upward, fillies and mares
Named after a brilliant, stakes winning sprinter from the late 1970s, the Royal North honours a filly who won 14 of 18 races for Stafford Farms and trainer Gil Rowntree.
The Royal North Stakes was inaugurated in 1989 and first won by Bill Hodgson's Blushing Katy, trained by Phil England.
The race was originally a six-furlong sprint on the dirt before it was moved to the E.P. Taylor Turf Course in 1996.
In the last 10 runnings of the Royal North, the race has been won by an invader to Woodbine on three occasions and nine times since 2000.
Woodbine trainers Mark Casse and Kevin Attard have accounted for four of the last 10 winners.
From a Beyer Speed Figure perspective (speed figures available in Daily Racing Form), eight of the last 10 winners posted a winning Beyer of 91 or higher in the Royal North.
Seven Royal North winners had previously won stakes races and each of the last 10 winners had had at least one start in that year coming into the race.
All but one Royal North winner in the last 10 years had won on turf or was stakes placed on turf. Boardroom, the 2022 Royal North winner was making her turf debut in the race.
Post/Horse - Trainer - Best Previous Turf Beyer - Stakes Win/Placing on Turf? - # Starts in 2023
1 - Imagery - Mark Casse - 84 - Yes - 3
2* - Bay Storm - Jonathan Thomas - 99 - Yes - 3
3* - Demodog - Kevin Attard - 83 - Yes - 0
4* - Millie Girl - Catherine Day Phillips - 81 - No - 1
5 - Our Flash Drive - Mark Casse - 92 - Yes - 1
6 - Sweet Enough (GB) - Roger Attfield - 88 - Yes - 3
7 - Owen's Tour Guide - Willie Armata - 83 - No - 2
8* - Baby No Worries - Tim Girten - 33 - No - 4
9 - Ambassador Luna - Mark Casse - 95 - Yes - 2
10* - Adaay In Asia (GB) - Christophe Clement - n/a - Yes - 0
11 - Forest Drift - Robert Tiller - 80 - No - 2
* ship-in.
Using Trends to Handicap the 2023 Royal North
(2) BAY STORM comes to Woodbine from Kentucky where she was recently second in the $300,000 Unbridled Sydney Stakes at 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf behind 2022 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint winner Caravel. That is quite a frame of reference. Bay Storm has made all 14 career starts on the grass and has two previous stakes wins in turf sprints. She earned her 99 Beyer Figure when second by a nose in the Grade 3 Ladies Sprint at Kentucky Downs last September. She is a major contender and top US rider John Velaquez is in town to ride.
(5) OUR FLASH DRIVE comes off a win in the Grade 3 Whimsical Stakes on Tapeta in her 2023 opener and she is a multiple stakes winner on the turf. Mark Casse has won three editions of the Royal North.
(1) IMAGERY is another Mark Casse trainee and she was stakes placed on the turf in Florida this winter and she is 2 for 3 on the turf at Woodbine. An interesting longshot play.
(10) ADAAY IN ASIA (GB) will be making her North American debut in the Royal North and she is a five-time winner on turf in England. She won four of her last five starts in 2022 and will be competing for the high profile stable of Christophe Clement.
The bets: $2 Exacta 2/ 1, 5, 10 = $6.00 or $2 Exacta 1,2,5/ 1, 2, 5, 10
Sunday – ECLIPSE STAKES (G3), Woodbine, Race 8
$175,000-added; 1 1/16 miles, Tapeta
Named for the great Eclipse who was unbeaten in 18 races in the late 1700s and then went on to be one of the most influential stallions in history, this race was first run in 1956 at Greenwood racetrack.
It was moved to Woodbine in 1967 and it has been won with many of the great Canadian racehorses including He's a Smoothie, Overskate and Izvestia.
One trend to note from recent runnings of the Eclipse is that nine of the last 10 winners one posted Beyer Speed Figures of 94 or over. Last year's winner, Artie's Storm, who is also in this year's 11-horse field, was making his first start of the season when he won the 2022 Eclipse with a 90 Beyer.
Four of the last 10 Eclipse winners were making their first starts of the year and four others were making their second or third starts of the season. Freshness seems to be a key trend for winning this race.
Since the race is for 4-year-olds and upward and is a graded event, most previous winners had won at least one stakes races in his career.
Using trends to handicap the 2023 Eclipse Stakes
Post/Horse – Trainer - Highest Tapeta Beyer - Stakes Winner? - # Starts 2023
1 - Avoman - John Charalambous - 88 - Yes - 0
2 - War Bomber - Norm McKnight - 96 - Yes - 0
3 - Wolfie's Dynaghost - Jonathan Thomas - 94 - Yes - 3
4 - Tyson - Josie Carroll - 92 - No - 1
5 - Artie's Storm - Paul Buttigieg - 100 - Yes - 0
6 - Bringer of Rain - Barbara Minshall - 79 - No - 1
7 - Treason - Josie Carroll - 101 - No - 0
8 - Conglomerate - Martin Drexler - 89 - No - 4
9 - Luckman - Vito Armata - 83 - Yes - 1
10 - Carrothers - Martin Drexler - 95 - No - 4
11 - Rondure - Katerina Vassilieva - 95 - Yes - 2
The majority of this year's Eclipse field have won a stakes race and/or put up a Beyer Figure in the 90s or higher, making for a competitive renewal of the race.
(11) It is not the best post position for a 1 1/16 mile race but the 11 post is where RONDURE will start. This lightly raced 4-year-old won a stakes race at this distance last year and he is making his third start of 2023. He won his latest at seven furlongs and is seen as a colt who has room for improvement.
The probable favourite, (3) WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST, recently discovered Tapeta racing and he is 3 for 3 on the surface or his new trainer Jonathan Thomas. The two-time stakes winner has never raced at Woodbine, however, so you wouldn't want to take really low odds on this classy gelding.
(2) WAR BOMBER, a stakes winner the last two years, and the improved gelding (10) CARROTHERS both qualify on Beyer Figures and can be used in your exotic wagers.
The bets: $2 exacta 3, 11/ 2, 3, 10, 11.
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