One of the current hot topics in horse racing handicapping and betting in North America is morning line odds. Morning line odds are found in the track program and every list of race entries across the continent.
Used in racing as early as the 1930s, the term morning line odds came about in the 1970s when the track handicapper would put odds on each horse the morning of a race.
Today, entries are drawn, and morning line odds are set, anywhere from one to three days in advance.
What Are Morning Line Odds
The goal of the morning line is to predict the final odds of the race, not the winner.
If the morning line oddsmaker puts a horse at 2 to 1 on the morning line and the horse goes off at 2 to 1, they got it “right”, regardless of whether that horse wins or loses.
Favourites win roughly 30 percent of the time, so a good morning line oddsmaker will have three 'winners' for every 10-race card.
The point of the morning line odds is not to pick winners but provide a guide for fans as to how the oddsmaker thinks the race will be bet overall.
How Are They Calculated?
Using an odds and percentage chart the linemaker normally assigns odds that add up to 100 percent.
However, the win pool takeout rate – an amount taken out of every wage before payoffs – must be taken into consideration.
For example, with a win pool takeout rate of 17 percent, and allowing for a one percentage point margin of error per horse in each race, a good morning line adds up to about 125 points.
*Photo of odds and percentage points*
Good morning line oddsmakers try to view the race from the general public’s viewpoint.
A horse that runs well in its most recent race will be well bet, as will a horse trained by the leading trainer or ridden by a hot jockey.
A first-time starter who shows many fast workout times on his past performance will almost attract a lot of betting support.
Why Do We Need Morning Line Odds?
Morning line odds appear with race entries because racetracks want to provide the casual racing fan with a guide on what odds to expect for each horse.
More frequent handicappers and a large number of public handicappers who publish their race-day selections don't look at morning line odds these days, at least not before they compile their picks for each race.
As David Hill noted in a column for America's Best Racing, “[the practice of making morning line odds] dates back to a time when bettors had no access to real-time odds information and had to use this best guess at the odds to make their wagers. Today, we have the benefit of a constant stream of data updated in real time to know what the exact pari-mutuel odds are at every point in time.”
The tote board for any race opens with the morning line odds but when the first 'live' update occurs, those are the odds that fans should be noting.
What's an Overlay and What’s an Underlay?
An overlay is a horse who is higher odds, in the bettor's opinion, than he should be, based on his current form, a class move or any other factor.
A horse can become an overlay if another horse is taking a lot more betting support than it possibly should be, known as an underlay.
Making Your Own Line
A lot of handicappers spend some time putting their own morning line odds on races they want to want.
Once they calculate their own line, they compare it to the track's line and see if there are any opportunities to wager on an overlay.
Example at Woodbine
On Sunday, June 25, in race 1, (3) KING ALFREDO looks like a good bet at 9 to 2 in the morning line.
This 4-year-old, who was a pick from this corner when he won on June 11, won by five lengths that day at 4 to 1.
He meets similar rivals and switches to grass, a surface he has handled well in the past. There is not a horse in this race, other than the returning Small Talk, who has current form like King Alfredo.
Good luck with setting your own morning line odds and your picks!
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