Some of the most popular races at the track are those races for 2-year-olds, the baby races, in which fans and horsepeople get their first look at perhaps the next star of the future, In the summer, there could be two, three, perhaps more, races for juveniles on a card and many of the starters, if not all, are making the first starts of the career.
Handicappers are at a disadvantage when presented with a race loaded first first-time starters but there are clues available. My favourite approaches to use include trainers, pedigree, sales price and workouts and the odds board.
Trainers
Trainers each have their own way of preparing their young horses for the races. There are some trainers who want to see big speed from their works when they have their weekly workouts. Other trainers work their horses slower and perhaps give them more, long and slow gallops, ,preferring to build foundation rather than only speed.
There are are some trainers who have a knack for having their beginners ready to win first time out. One of the most famous of these trainers is Kentucky-based Wesley Ward, whose first time starting 2-year-olds are always heavily bet and often winners.
There have been 24 juvenile races at Woodbine this summer through August 3 and trainers who have won with a first time starter include Kevin Attard, Catherine Day Phillips and Barbara Minshall. In fact, both trainers have also had multiple debut winners and juvenile winners. Mark Casse and Norm McKnight have also had juvenile winners.
Statistics for trainers and how they do with first time starters can be found at the bottom of past performance lines in the Daily Racing Form of track program There are also a number of subscription services, such as Formulator, from DRF, that have in-depth trainer stats.
Example 1 points out trainer statistics with first time starters and other categories and workout times.
Pedigree
A horse’s breeding can give insight on what to expect from a first time starter. Some horses have plenty of early speed and precociousness in their breeding while others have long distance, stamina-oriented breeding.
You can find stallion statistics for each year and each category (2-year-old winners, turf winners, etc.) at sites such BloodHorse.com, which has up-to-date statistics for free.
Ontario stallions who get a lot of 2-year-old debut winners include Souper Speedy, Silent Name (Jpn) and Old Forester,, while American stallions such as Munnings, Into Mischief and More Than Ready are well known for their debut winners.
Workouts
A horse's workout times listed at the bottom of the past performances are essentially just a guide for bettors, since for most of us, we have not seen the workout. These timed preps take place early in the mornings and some horses will work fast as a habit, others prefer to save their best for race day. A horse may have worked in fast time and was hard ridden to do the workout while another horse may have done it a lot easier. However, a horse with better-than-average workout times (each workout time is listed by how fast it was for the distance that morning compared to others) rates a look.
Sales price
The first line in the top-middle of a horse's past performance shows you the colour, sex and age of the horse as well as the purchase price if the horse was bought from auction. Expensive first-time starters often win their first career starts. Equibase.com also offers full auction history of every horse by name. If you see a horse who was a $50,000 yearling purchase and then was sold as a 2-year-old in training sale for $500,000, you can be sure that youngster grew into a talented runner.
(Note: All 2-year-old sales in North American have the results and pre-sale workout times listed with videos on the sales websites).
What are the odds?
When the betting opens for a race with 2-year-old, first time starters and you see that a lot of money is wagered on a horse with some quick workout times, it often means a lot of horsepeople who have seen the horse's workouts or have knowledge from the horse's barn workers, have placed an early bet.
Steady and strong betting support on a first time starter is often 'smarty' money.
A horse to watch, Sunday, August 7.
Race 6 at Woodbine
This 6 furlong maiden 2-year-old race has quite a few youngsters with a race under their belt. A couple of them ran well first or second time out (Buck's Fizz and Siesta Beach) but consider putting first-time starter #7 COUNTRY LIVING in your wagers.
One of the leading riders at Woodbine, Rafael Hernandez will be board this 8 to 1 shot who had a very fast workout on July 22; 5 furlongs in 59 3/5, the second fastest of 47 horses to work that distance on that track that day. Trainer Dale Desruisseaux is about average with horses that win their first start, 11 % in the last two years and this gelding is by the same sire as Siesta Beach, who ran so well in his two races.
If this horse is 8 to 1, or gets some betting attention and ens up at 3 to 1, be sure to include him in your wagers.
(Note: There are a few other horses in this race on Sunday not shown in the image)
Good luck with your wagers!
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