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Historical Trends for Handicapping the Bison City

News and Results > Top Racing Headlines > 2023 > Historical Trends for Handicapping the Bison City

Historical Trends for Handicapping the Bison City

August 11, 2023
By Jennifer Morrison
Historical Trends for Handicapping the Bison City
The Triple Tiara for Canadian-bred 3-year-old fillies continues Sunday, August 13 with the $250,000 Bison City Stakes at Woodbine Racetrack.
 
The July 23 Woodbine Oaks kicked off the Tiara which concludes with the Wonder Where Stakes on the turf at Woodbine Racetrack on Sept. 10.
 
The Bison City, which is contested at 1 1/16 miles on Tapeta is one-sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Oaks.
 
Named for the city of Buffalo, the race was inaugurated at Fort Erie Race Track in 1954.

The race features a big purse and valuable black type for sophomore fillies and the field of nine presents a fascinating handicapping puzzle for horseplayers.
 
Trends
 
There are two notable trends in recent editions of the Bison City.
 
The first is that most of the last 10 winners were coming off a good effort in the Oaks, and winners have also showed tactical speed to be in a stalking or front running position.
 
The last 10 winners of the race are listed below with their previous race result and Beyer Speed Figure (courtesy of Daily Racing Form) and Bison City-winning Beyer and the successful running style.
 
Year Winner Prior Start (Beyer) Bison City Running Style (Beyer)
2022 Sister Seagull 2nd in Oaks (73) Rally (78)
2021 Il Malocchio 3rd in Oaks (81) Stalk (81)
2020 Mizzen Bay 4th in Oaks (80) Speed (87)
2019 Speedy Soul 3rd in Oaks (79) Stalk/Press (86)
2018 Safe to Say 3rd G3 Selene (80) Stalk (79)
2017 Enstone 4th in Oaks (82) Speed (80)
2016 Caren 3rd in Oaks (77) Speed (83)
2015 Brooklyn'sway 6th in Oaks (78) Stalk (83)
2014 Unspurned 5th in Oaks (77) Speed (77)
2013 Original Script 3rd in Oaks (87) Speed (88)
 
Trainer Mark Casse has the most Bison City victories with five and jockey Patrick Husbands has a record six wins.

Speed and Class
 
Many of the recent Bison City Stakes winners were still in an improving mode in their recent form. A previous stakes win is a bonus when handicapping the Bison City but it is not necessary.

Often the Bison City is the third or fourth race for a filly of the season so there is still plenty of room for improvement.
 
The average Beyer Speed Figure from the last 10 editions of the Bison City is 82 but most fillies heading into the Bison City have not reached that plateau yet.
 
Finding the horse that is moving forward in her form is the key to picking the winner.
 
Sizing up the 2023 Bison City Stakes
 
This year's Bison City Stakes field is missing the top two finishers from the Oaks. Elysian Field and Wickenheiser are both headed to next weekend's King's Plate.
 
However, seven of the nine entrants last ran in the Oaks so a review of that race can come in handy when sorting out those starters.
 
Only one filly in the Bison City field is a stakes winner.
 
Fashionably Fab, who took the 6 furlong Shady Well Stakes as a 2-year-old, went far too fast early in the Oaks as she got burned out in a pace battle with another longshot.
 
She has Patrick Husbands aboard this weekend, but her current form is in question.
 
Two fillies stand out in the Bison City based on their recent form and the race's historical trends.
 
FORTYFIVESEVENTY (#6) was a very good third in the Oaks and that was despite a couple of trouble points.
 
Owned and trained by Barbara Minshall (who has won with 4 of her last 19 starters), Fortyfiveseventy was close to the fast pace early in Oaks but had to wait for room on the last turn.

In the stretch run, jockey Ryan Munger had to steady his filly and angle out for racing room before she finished very strongly to third, just three lengths behind Elysian Field.
 
Just behind Fortyfiveseventy was ME AND MY SHADOW (#8), who is trained by Mark Casse.
 
This filly was stakes placed three times before her Oaks outing when she gave away quite a big of ground with a wide trip.
 
It was hard for jockey Emma-Jayne Wilson to avoid a wide journey since Me and My Shadow drew post position 14. She was just over a length behind Fortyfiveseventy at the finish and Casse brought her back on Aug. 6 for a quick, four-furlong workout in 48.00.
 
Those are two fillies you can consider the main win candidates for Sunday's race.

If you are looking for a bit more value, TITO'S CALLING (#4) is a stretch runner who was too close to the fast pace in the Oaks. She is better than her 10th place finish that day indicates.

Good luck with you wagers!
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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