Handicapping the Prince of Wales Stakes
Paramount Prince, the 2023 King's Plate winner, will continue on his journey for a Canadian Triple Crown sweep on Tuesday, September 12 at Fort Erie racetrack in the second jewel, the $400,000 Prince of Wales Stakes. In order to do so, the impressive chestnut 3-year-old will have to get past 11 rivals in his first try on a traditional dirt surface.
It is the largest field assembled for the Prince of Wales in 21 years. In fact, the average size of the 1 3/16 mile race through the last 20 years is just six horses.
The switch in track surface, from Woodbine's Tapeta to the dirt, and the slightly shorter distance of the 'Wales' compared to the Plate (1/16th of a mile) makes Fort Erie's flagship race vastly different than the Plate. Just three Plate winners in the last 20 years, Mighty Heart, Wonder Gadot and Wando, won the 'Wales' with Wando being the last horse to sweep the Triple Crown.
(Note – there were a few years when the Plate winner did not participate in the Prince of Wales).
Surface Change
It has been 18 years since Woodbine had a dirt track and all the Plate races since 2006 were run on an all weather surface. That means that the majority of starters in the 'Wales' since then were making their first start on dirt.
Only three entrants in this year's 'Wales' field have tried the dirt and two of them, Cool Kiss and Morstachy's, had good results.
A dirt track can play faster than an all weather surface with quicker pace fractions while an all weather track, such as the Tapeta track at Woodbine, tend to play more like a grass race with a slower pace and a fast finish.
The 2022 'Wales' winner, Duke of Love, is a prime example of a horse who excels on a dirt track, more so than on an all-weather surface. The colt had a win at Woodbine on Tapeta early in his career but was fourth in the Plate Trial and eighth in the Plate. He ran the best race of his career in the 'Wales', which was run over a muddy main track.
So, how do you figure out which 'Wales' starter might handle the dirt track? In general, Woodbine starters who are entered to race on the dirt at Fort Erie usually handle the change well. If a 'Wales' runner has strong grass form in addition to Tapeta, that is when the transition to dirt may not be as smooth.
A horse's pedigree may offer clues for his prowess on dirt but researching the sire, dam and sibling race records can be time consuming. Some trainers may have delved into their horse's breeding and certainly, trainers aiming to run in the 'Wales' will have worked their horse on a dirt surface. Take a look at the time and ranking of a horse's dirt workout and compare it to his all-weather track works.
Wet Track?
If the rain comes and the Prince of Wales Stakes is run over a sloppy or muddy track, the win chances of speed runners get better. Again, since an all weather track filters water through its wax-covered dirt, an all weather track does not get muddy or sloppy. And for horses coming from off the pace in the mud, success is a bit more difficult as they are getting a lot of mud in their face.
Wet-track Tomlinson ratings based on pedigree are available in Daily Racing Form and a number close to, or higher than 400 is strong.
Horses with good wet track breeding in this year's 'Wales' include #1 Armaline (478 Tomlinson rating), whose dam, Starmaline was unbeaten in two wet track races, #4 Stanley House (480), #5 Trinity Park (440), #10 Velocitor, whose dam loved the mud, #11 Ottawa (389), from the mud-loving Smart Strike line pedigree and #12 Cool Kiss (395), whose sire Kantharos loved the mud.
Running Style of Recent Winners and More Hints
Through this week, the Fort Erie meeting has had just 28 races at route distances on the dirt and more than 70 percent of those races were won by front runners or pace pressers.
In the last 20 editions of the 'Wales', front runners have won more than 50 percent of the time and if you add in horses within two lengths of the early lead at the first call of the race, that number grows to 65 percent.
A number of Prince of Wales starters this year are adding blinkers and while that equipment won't necessarily make them run faster, it could add enough focus to their task and lead to improvement.
Twin City (#3), eighth in the Plate, has shown some early speed in a couple of his races and the addition of blinkers could bring back some of that natural speed. He had a quick workout on the Woodbine training dirt on Sept. 3, 47.80 for four furlongs. Stanley House (#4) has run some big races without blinkers but in the Plate Trial and Plate, has been lost in the back of the field in the early stages. The addition of blinkers should get him involved earlier.
Tiburon (#9) has worn blinkers before and won without them but will wear them for the 'Wales' while Cool Kiss (#12) is a confirmed, deep-closer who had a fast workout on the Woodbine training dirt on Sept. 5 of 48.20 for four furlongs.
The average win payoff of the last 20 'Wales' winners is just over $12.00 (about 5 to 1) and the Beyer Speed Figure par of the last 10 winners is 89. It should be noted that other than Plate winners Mighty Heart (2020) and Wonder Gadot (2018), recent Prince of Wales winners ran a new 'top' Beyer Figure.
Data on post position success at Fort Erie is limited since the track has had few large fields in recent years. When Le Cinquieme Essai won the 2002 'Wales' he broke from post 11 and was quickly contesting the early pace.
88th Prince of Wales Analysis
Putting all of the historical markers together with the entrants in this year's Prince of Wales, here is a short list of contenders with a couple of longshots to include in your wagers.
Contenders: #4 - Stanley House, #8 -Paramount Prince
Longshot plays: #1 – Armaline, #6 Stayhonor Goodside, #11 Ottawa
Stanley House was my selection in the King's Plate and he is my pick again. This colt ran a huge race from off the pace in the Plate and he has the breeding to handle the dirt (or a wet track), he has the potential to be closer to the pace and a move forward in his Beyer Figures is projected.
Until he is challenged and defeated, Paramount Prince is the deserving favourite and he could go off at lower than his 8 to 5 morning line odds. However, in his last two races, including the Plate, this very good gelding has had the lead to himself on his home track and perhaps a different scenario at Fort Erie gives his rivals a chance.
Three longshots I will use in various wagers will be recent maiden winner Armaline, in particular if the track is wet. Hard-trying Stayhonor Goodside never gives up and his trainer has won many Prince of Wales. Ottawa is the wild card as he is a probable front runner who has two very good Beyer Figures (80, and 81) despite still being a maiden.
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