Ken Middleton, Jr. said “one of the greatest bets in harness racing” is when there is an overwhelming favourite in a stakes race “and somebody bets a pile of money on that horse to show.” The long-time standardbred race caller at the Woodbine Entertainment Group (WEG) said the idea is not to bet the favourite, but another horse.
“Bet $20 to show on another one and hope that (favourite) misses the ticket. Even if the favourite wins, all your horse has to do is hit the board and you’re going to get a small payout back,” Middleton said.
“For example, JK Shesalady in the Fan Hanover, was 1-5. If some guy bets $70,000 to show on her, you can get an $80 show payoff and you’re not going to get better bang for your buck than $20 to show on another horse should it happen to hit the ticket. That’s the greatest advice I could give anybody betting. I hate when racetracks take show betting off races. It’s like going to Las Vegas and them saying, ‘No, you can’t bet on this event.’ Let me, because I want to bet against that person’s money.”
Middleton, who has been calling the races at WEG since 1998, also offered other handicapping advice. He cautioned bettors not to discount horses whose last start came in a qualifier.
“I think even a decade ago, the mentality for most people was, ‘Oh, that horse is going to need a start’ or ‘this horse is going to need a start.’ I think trainers nowadays have them ready right away. Even if it’s a lengthy layoff, they’re usually ready… It’s putting faith in the trainers in this day and age. They have to have them ready. I think they do more damage not having them ready.
“Even if it’s just a qualifier in :59 and you know that horse is going to have to go in :52 in its first start, generally, there’s a good chance the horse has been faster than :59… Even though you see :59, you have to trust the trainer. You know that trainer is going to have that horse faster than :59 leading up to a race where he’s going to have to go :52.
“If a horse is coming off a qualifier, don’t always think the horse is going to be rusty. More and more it’s not the case. There’s been so many examples of it this year and horses have been at great prices. It’s a great overlay on a horse because people question their readiness.”
Middleton said handicappers should also not shy away from trainers jumping a horse up in class.
“Usually the trainers that do well in general, that bat .300 or a little bit over .300, generally, when they claim a horse, their goal is to jam them right back in for the same price. So, normally if you see a trainer that does well jump them, they’re jumping them for a reason.
“When they jump them up in class, don’t worry too much about the class jump because if they’re not concerned about it, you shouldn’t be… Don’t ever waver at a horse jumping in class for a high-percentage trainer like that. They normally don’t do that, but when they do, more times than not, the horse will do at the higher level.”
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