Canadian racetracks are in the final months or weeks of the 2024 racing season and late-season handicapping comes with its own set of approaches.
In the fall, the weather is a lot more unpredictable and that can have an effect on the track surface. There will be some horses in a race who have been busy racing since early summer and others who had some time off for a late-season campaign. Fresh horses are always dangerous in the fall.
As the opportunities for a horse to race begin to shrink with the completion of racing seasons, you might see some trainers bringing their horses back in a week – following a good race, in particular.
This is often a good sign and can lead to a nice payoff.
Let's brush up on some factors to consider for late-season handicapping and look at Race 7 at Fort Erie on Tuesday, Sept. 24.
Wet Tracks
Leaves are falling, the temperatures are cooler and here comes the rain.
The weather can be a mixed bag at this time of year, leaving you with wet tracks to consider in your betting.
Fort Erie cards a couple of grass races each day, but any heavy rain will move those races to the main track. Be sure to trace through a horse's race record to see if he has any ‘off’ track form.
A reminder, a higher percentage of front-running horses win over sloppy or muddy tracks simply because the stretch runners can get discouraged when getting mud kicked back. Make special note of any speed runners in the race you’re handicapping.
Freshness Factor
You might see horses entered in the fall who have only recently returned from a short vacation. Perhaps a horse was given a break if he didn't like the hot weather of deep summer or simply because the trainer wanted his horse fresher for the final starts of the year.
Occasionally, you may see a horse making his first start of the year in late summer or early fall as he may have needed extra time to get into top racing fitness. It’s always a good idea to take a look at a horse's workout lines, to ensure there’s a steady string of preps every 7-9 days coming if they’re coming off a layoff.
Not all of these horses will be ready to win right after their time off, but, certainly, in their second or third race after returning, they should be ready to move forward in their form.
Be sure to use the trainer statistics at the bottom of each horse in the track program or Daily Racing Form.
The ‘Quick Back’
If a trainer feels their horse is in great form, they often will bring their horse back to race in a week or less. This must be viewed as a positive sign and, in fact, there are many players who have a firm rule to bet any horse coming back to action in five days or less.
A ‘hot’ barn, one that has been winning frequently in recent days, also merits tabbing.
While not scientific, many horseplayers believe that some trainers win races in smaller bunches and capitalizing on this trend is another way to place a winning bet.
Fort Erie, Tuesday, September 24, Race 7
The final race on Tuesday is scheduled for about seven furlongs on the grass, but there’s more rain in the forecast for the Fort Erie area. Let's handicap the race for the main track and mud (please note that the race will be run at 6 1/2 furlongs if moved to the main track).
No. 9 INDY COWBOY is listed as a “main track only” horse and, thus, it’s likely this Daniel Wills-trained three-year-old will draw into the field on Tuesday.
A recent winner in his first-ever outing at Fort Erie, Indy Cowboy was second in a race at this class level, but at a shorter distance on Sept. 19.
Indy Cowboy has not raced over a wet track yet, but his Tomlinson Pedigree Rating (only available in Daily Racing Form) is a hefty 412 (the maximum rating is 500), and any time you see Canadian-bred Smart Strike in a horse's breeding, that means mud.
Another horse to consider in Race 7 is No. 2 CONDITIONAL, a five-year-old who should be fresh as he’s making only his third start of the year.
This guy was well prepared to win off the layoff on Aug.16 and then a bad start in his next outing (after watching the relay, you can see Conditional break behind the field and then stumble) had a negative effect on his performance.
Fort Erie Race 7 Wagers:
$10 Exactor Box 2 and 9
$10 Win 9
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