Have you ever bet on a horse only to see him go head-to-head to another rival, or rivals, and faded at the end?
One of the first things that casual or professional handicappers do when they begin to decipher a race is to take an overview of how it might play out. Make notes of the horses who typically race on the early lead, those who tend to be stalkers and others who are stretch runners. This can often help a bettor get an idea of what style of running might be successful in a particular race.
Of course, anything can happen at the outset of a race; for instance if a front running horse has a slow start from the gate or tactics for a horse are changed by the trainer or rider. Predicting how a race will be run is not foolproof but it can be a good guide.
Pace Makes the Race
The most basic idea of how pace affects a horse race is that a slow pace can favour front-runners, allowing them to finish strongly and hold off late runners. A fast pace can do exactly the opposite, tiring out the leaders and setting the race up for horses rallying from behind.
If you find a race that has just a single, front running type of horse, you must give him extra consideration. Conversely, if there is a race that has a number of horses who do their best running on the pace, you might want to look for a stalker or closer.
It is a good idea to familiarize yourself with what qualifies as 'fast' or 'slow' pace times, although any time two or more horses are battling on an early lead, that is a contested duel that can set a race up for a stretch runner.
In sprint races, fast fractions look like this:
first 1/4: :22 2/5 and faster
1/2 mile: :45 1/5 and faster
In route races:
first 1/4: :23 4/5 and faster
1/2 mile: :47 2/5 and faster
3/4 mile: 1:12 4/5 and faster
Below is an example of a race that had one distinct, front-running horse in a 1 1/16 mile race:
Horse #1 Finalist shows several good placings when he has the early lead to himself. This year he has raced in a sprint and on grass. In the sprint race he was up close to fractions of 23 2/5 and :46, which would certainly put him on the pace in this race.
A look at his rivals show only Lion's Goldenheart and Flat Out Vixen as horses who have raced near the pace in recent starts and both horses were close to very slow fractions.
Finalist, at 8 to 1 in the morning line odds, did indeed get to the lead by himself this day and take the victory.
What Was the Pace like in His Last Race?
When handicapping a race it is a good idea to decipher how a horse's most recent races went according to their preferred style of running.
This Sunday, July 16 at Woodbine, race 6 is a grass event at 1 1/8 miles on the E.P. Taylor course.
Horse #5 Haddassah's last win came at 1 1/8 miles on this course when he had a clear lead all the way and won handily.
In his most recent outing on June 18 at one mile on the inner turf, Haddassah was in a prolonged pace battle through fast splits of :22 3/5, :46 and 1:10. He faded to fifth place. This weekend, Haddassah is in a spot where he is the only true front runner in the field so consider him a 'key' horse in Pick 5 or Pick 4 wagers.
Pace play: Sunday, July 16, Woodbine, Race 6, #5 Haddassah
Pace Can Affect Speed Figures
A horse with a front-running style that has things his own way on the pace might get an 'inflated' speed figure, a number higher than it actually should be, because the horse was never challenged. Similarly, a sizzling early pace that falls apart late for a stretch runner could lead to that winner having an inflated speed figure. Utilizing results charts from www.equibase.com or race replays from your favourite track can help you get a good idea on how a race was run.
Pace play: Tuesday, July 18, Fort Erie, Race 2, #5 Storming Lady
This 5 1/2 furlong allowance race is loaded with speedsters including recent winner Alacritious, who earned a career-best 82 Beyer Figure when he opened up a big, early lead. That might not happen in this race on July 18, as there are other horses in the field who could push him early. That could help the chances of the mare Storming Lady, #5.
Good Luck with your selections!
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