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Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Selections: Friday, December 11, 2020

Bet Now > Tips from the Pros > Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Selections: Friday, December 11, 2020

Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Selections: Friday, December 11, 2020

December 11, 2020
By Melissa Keith
Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Selections: Friday, December 11, 2020
Best Bet – (4) THE REINS OF TITAN – Race 3
Spot Play – (3) FIRST HEIR – Race 6
20-cent Early Pick 5 (race 1) – 1,2,3,5/2,3,6/4/2,3/2,3,4 = $14.40
20-cent Late Pick 5 (race 6) – 3,8/1/6,8/1,5/2,5,8 = $4.80
20-cent Early Pick 4 (race 4) – 2,3/2,3,4,6/3,8/1 = $3.20
20-cent Late Pick 4 (race 8) – 6,8/1,5/2,5,8/1,5,9 = $7.20


Race 1 – A trotting filly sharing a name with a volcano, (3) ST HELENS doesn't inspire the most confidence about staying flat during the race; she's done her best work for Scott Wray, however, and he's back in the bike tonight behind class-dropping closer who broke her maiden at Western Fair Oct. 23 in Nw10000lcd company. (1)  MACKJUSTICE is also down in class, but has never won in London.  (5) DIMANTE VIC was a going-away Dec. 4 winner from trailing post #8, his second consecutive win at this track's Nw5000lcd classification; Colin Kelly stays aboard steady closer for the class jump.
 
Race 2 –  (6)  WHATAREALBADGIRL is back at the track where she's enjoyed most success and took her 1:57.1 personal best Nov. 6; more recently, starting from second tier and post #6, she couldn't make front in Flamboro filly and mare 15000clmcd efforts Nov. 21 and Dec. 5 for regular reinsman Brett MacDonald; that strategy has been key to her three 2020 wins at Western Fair; she was boxed in and shuffled to last in her most recent start at Flamboro, having late pace but too far back to get involved. (2) KISS IT BETTER and Marc St. Louis Jr. set the pace in the added-distance London distaff 15000clmcd Dec. 4, falling prey to Land of Paradise (#7 this race) in the stretch; back at the mile this week, she's closer to the inside post from which she had her last win here, gate to wire, Nov. 4 at lower classification. (3)  WAR DIAMOND was third for owner/driver George Ketros from same post last start, but also won from the #3 hole here Oct. 21, her lone victory of 2020; "throwing down early" in duel for lead with Kiss It Better in this track's Dec. 4 mile-and-a-sixteenth event, then pocketing up behind her in third; she was barely edged out of the place spot at the finish.
 
Race 3 –  (4) THE REINS OF TITAN broke and never got back in the game when starting from post #7 at Flamboro Dec. 6; he was just too wide and trotting too fast into the first turn, but reset eventually, finishing distanced but flying; look back a little further to see his Oct. 9 gate-to-wire London victory from post #7, and his Oct. 16 follow-up from the rail here, over several of tonight's rivals; Austin Sorrie stays with him despite the break-marred effort last outing together; judges' scratch due to weather, Dec. 4 at Western Fair. (7)  WYND CREEK and trainer Katelyn Graham had a near-perfect November at Flamboro, with three wins and a show in four starts last month; half-mile track specialist had post #7 Nov. 28 at Flamboro, when she was taken back to sixth early and scooted up pylons before following a three-wide Missys Magic Man second-over en route to the three-quarters; class relief after adventurous trip and good closing effort for Colin Kelly. (1)  DUSTYLANE THUNDER is a five-time seasonal winner who can be vulnerable on the front end; she was a beaten even-money fave here Dec. 4, unable to catch freewheeling leader Mr Arch.
 
 Race 4 – (2) FERN HILL BREEZE is a half-mile track specialist with victories over three of them this year, most recently Flamboro Oct. 10, from same post as tonight; emerged from third on the rail at the 27.4 opening quarter to chase down Chaleurs AD first over; parked to the rest of the mile, he finally drew ahead in deep stretch and held off Rye N Clyne in gutsy 1:57.1 win; dropping down from Mohawk 15000clmhp. (3) AMAZON DRAGON has the most show finishes (six) of any rival here this year, yet shows potential for better this race; class drop after finishing an overmatched sixth in London added-distance Nw2500l3cd event Nov. 30; returns to mile distance and draws inside #7 for first time after three consecutive starts from the dreaded lowest-win-percentage-for-pacers post position. (1)  LEAFS AND WINGS has some back class; 13-year-old makes fourth start in a row with Lasix, while also adding latest catch driver Daryl Thiessen and a better post that he's had in weeks.
 
Race 5 –  (3) TAILS AWAY is a recently-beaten 6/5 fave, never in the hunt at back-to-back London mile-and-a-sixteenth efforts from challenging posts; class drop from 15000clmcd level to 7000clmcd wasn't enough to offset those other factors, although it could be tonight; his two seasonal victories were on/near front, from inside posts on halfs, at 15000clmcd classification for different connections; parked throughout his Nov. 27 start, he keeps Tyler Borth for a better chance for revenge at same extra distance. (2) REDDIT HANOVER blew up the Rideau Carleton tote board with his 60/1 victory June 16, then wired Op15000clm company there August 13 for his only other 2020 win and 1:54 lifetime best; now trained by Vic Puddy, he finished fourth Dec. 3 at Flamboro as a 4/5 beaten fave for trainer Isabel Binet; gapping in third throughout inside trip that mile, he was losing momentum late; Marc St. Louis Jr. in the bike could get him out of rut at this conservative 7000clmcd level. (4) LITTLE QUICK has some deep closing tendencies he's shown in his last three tries at 7000clmcd level, here and at Flamboro; Brett MacDonald is reunited with 13-year-old who looks to be the late speed this race. (6) MCSINNER MAN is the kind of improbable horse who adds value to a Hi-5 when he's in the mix; hard to read based on current performances and his transportation-based judges' scratch at Flamboro Dec. 3, but he's actually down in class from his last race, a sixth-place Nov. 26 effort at Mohawk's 8000clm classification.  (8) OUTLAW KISMET and Preston Shaw start from second tier; class dropper has lost ground late in Nov. 20 and Dec. 4 starts at Western Fair; minor shares.
 
Race 6 – (3) FIRST HEIR closed well for Colin Kelly Nov. 20 at London Nw5000lcd level, getting up for show behind winner Stormont Tim; Kelly opted to drive Dimante Vic last Friday, as that now-absent rival went on to win and Tyler Borth catch-drove this gelding to another show finish; three-year-old gelding taking on mostly two-and three-year-old maidens has a little more experience and reliable trotting than some in this field. (8) DREAM DEAL starts from trailing post that is a decided disadvantage for trotters at this venue; two-year-old gelding is only winner of this field, having wired Nw5000lcd company here Nov. 27 from post #1; class drop for horse who started his first year of racing late, debuting with a sixth-place result Nov. 19 at Mohawk for Richard Moreau. (7)  J R WHEELING was a beaten front-end fave at odds of 6/5 Nov. 20; Brett MacDonald was in the sulky for the two-year-old that card; it was a repeat performance of his Oct. 30 London Nw5000lcd effort for Tyler Borth, when the front-end-loving colt was caught late and settled for place.  
 
Race 7 – (1) WINE TYME had the rail last Friday at Western Fair, but self-destructed during late rally from second-over when she went three-wide at top of the stretch; looked distracted/green when she jumped off stride, but isn't a regular breaker; class relief from distaff 15000clmcd level as Lorne House stays loyal to ambitious closer. (5)  WARRAWEE WIN is a two-year-old owned by Suzie Kerwood and trainer Rene Dion, a good combination with young horses; class-dropping filly is making only her fourth career start; lost ground late Dec. 4, but Paul MacKenzie stays with filly who just needs to find a little more late in the mile to hit board. (8)  STILL OWING makes third start in a row with Lasix; class drop and trailing post for three-year-old dropping down from Flamboro filly and mare 7000clmcd for Nick Boyd; third at Western Fair Oct. 9 in her only start here, at distaff 15000clmcd classification; closed in the stretch, in a race marred by several breakers and an accident.
 
Race 8 – (8) HUNGER PANGS is apparent choice of Colin Kelly over #1 Ilovewhatido; that's despite this trailing-post starter having one seasonal win, at Summerside Oct. 4 in gate-to-wire style; Dec. 4 at Western Fair Nw2500l3cd classification, the five-year-old started from rail for Kelly, took early lead, then surrendered to ride in the pocket behind eventual winner Maximus Power the rest of the mile; recently competing credibly at Mohawk in 15000clmcd. (6) WALTER MITTY is a London Preferred-3 class-dropper, racing for Brett and Ronald MacDonald; he's back to the mile distance after finishing fourth at the mile-and-sixteenth Nov. 30; none of his three 2020 victories were at this track; most recent win was at Flamboro Oct. 11, when he wired Nw3000l3cd pacers after dropping in from Mohawk. (3)  DALIATOR has hit board in half of his 18 starts this year; class jump, but trainer/driver Greg Dustin's gelding had 5 of those 9 top-three finishes at Western Fair; his only win was at Clinton, however. 
 
Race 9 – (1) SEE THE DELIGHT has rail for owner/trainer/driver Don Rankin Jr.; with only one 2020 win, in 2:02 at Leamington Raceway, she's nonetheless a solid 16-for-24 in top-three finishes this season; same class as Dec. 4 Western Fair added-distance affair in which she stalked from fourth and closed for show behind winner Literally Hanover (#5 this race) and runner-up Century Gaga. (5) LITERALLY HANOVER is on a five-race win streak at Western Fair for Daryl Thiessen; intriguingly, three of the wins were at added distance; top selection See the Delight paced two London miles faster than Literally Hanover's 1:59.4 lifetime best, which she set here Oct. 28 at lower classification. (3) RUNAWAY HEIRESS finished fifth at the mile-and-a sixteenth Dec. 4; closed for fourth here Nov. 13 and 27, both at the mile distance; Manitoba-bred is 11 for 17 in top-three finishes this year.
 
Race 10 – (8) BETTORS WESTERN has won from Western Fair's second tier in the March 9 Preferred-3; Ronald and Brett MacDonald's gelding closed second over from fourth at the half for the victory, defeating Paparazzi Hanover in 1:56.3 courtesy of a big three-wide move at the three-quarters; he was dismissed at 6/1; did we mention he did the same at 7/5 odds from same post, same level, only from third-over at the half and four-wide at the three-quarters last Dec. 23? (2) OH K MAN is reunited with Marc St. Louis Jr.; they won at Western Fair's 15000clmcd classification Oct. 21, then finished second on class jump to Preferred-3 level Nov. 2; eight of his 11 wins this year were at this track, at varied classes and distances. (5)  LEVIS DAY has been at Rideau Carleton, but the Vic Puddy trainee finished second to Easton Beach in his last London race before the move, Oct. 16 at this track's Preferred-2 level; that effort was with the busy Marc St. Louis Jr. in the bike, so Lorne House picks up catch drive on pacer who wired Ottawa rivals in the snow Nov. 22, the last time he enjoyed a class drop.
 
Race 11 – (1) TYMAL HOUDINI looks sneaky good from the rail tonight; he's familiar with London Nw50000lcd level and so is Paul MacKenzie; Kevin McMaster's lone starter tonight has just two 2020 victories, yet his fifth-to-third closing effort Dec. 4 makes him a calculated threat at added distance. (5)  SUPER T had an impossible assignment from post #7 Dec. 4, sent hard from the outside position to grab control and lead through the 29.1 opening quarter; he was under attack by 9/5 favourite Ten Four We Gone (#8 this race) before the half, eventually giving up the lead, but never giving up the race; overextended by that fight, which also wore down Ten Four We Gone, he finished fifth; both of his 2020 wins came early this year at Western Fair. (9) KASHE picked up the pieces when Super T was finished with Ten Four We Gone, as her second-over move and identical 30.3 last quarter put her a neck ahead of that place finisher; six wins this year, half of them at this venue, for Katelyn Graham-trained mare. (8) TEN FOUR WE GONE debuted impressively in Dec. 4 debut at London Nw50000lcd level; solid place result on the class jump, but another week without a real chance at his favoured front-end winning style may take its toll in second consecutive race at this level, from trailing post. (2)  MR ARCH was a going-away winner here last Friday, albeit at lesser 15000clmcd level; versatile three-year-old has improved week over week at that classification for Garrett Rooney, finally getting the 2:02.4 victory Dec. 4, but must step up in class again here.

Photo by John Watkins

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Melissa Keith is a lifelong harness handicapper/bettor, Hervey/O'Brien Media Excellence Award-winning writer, and occasional racecaller. She is a contributor to TROT, Hoof Beats, Atlantic Post Calls, and Harness Racing Update, often covering topics related to wagering. Her most memorable bets include taking down the Truro Raceway Pick-7 pool for a $36 investment (it has not been offered since) and collecting $1,287 for a Woodbine Harness Pick-4 which cost a whopping $1.60. 


 

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