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Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Selections: Friday, December 4, 2020

Bet Now > Tips from the Pros > Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Selections: Friday, December 4, 2020

Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Selections: Friday, December 4, 2020

December 4, 2020
By Melissa Keith
Melissa Keith’s Western Fair Selections: Friday, December 4, 2020
Best Bet – (7) –  LONEWOLF CURRIER   – Race 8
Spot Play – (2) – CHALEURS AD – Race 3
20-cent Early Pick 5 – Race 1 – 1,2,5/3,8/2,3/1,5/1,4,8 = $14.40
20-cent Late Pick 5 – Race 6 – 2,5,7/2,6/5,7/1,6/3,4 = $9.60
20-cent Early Pick 4 – Race 4 – 1,3,5/1,4,8/2,5,7,8/6 = $7.20
20-cent Late Pick 4 – Race 8 – 5,7/1,6/3,4/2,4,6 = $4.80


Race 1 – (5) EASY FLYER has the most seasonal wins (six) of anyone in this field; all of them were on or before March 1, for various owners/trainers; ineffective from post #6 after he drew in as also eligible Nov. 27 at added distance, on a night with only two off-the-pace winners at Western Fair; in pursuit of first victory since his claim Oct. 30, from his best post position for new connections; Bruce Richardson gets the catch drive on cold-weather specialist who won at Mohawk last Dec. 5. (2) MAXIMUS POWER was third in the early going of the mile-and-a-sixteenth pace here Nov. 27, very close behind Jake Parrish (#6 this race); he was first over at the 56.2 half for Travis Henry, but couldn't clear pacesetter Arcane Seelster; third in the photo for place, he was still many open lengths ahead of the rest of the field; class drop from same post position tonight, and retains Henry. (1) HUNGER PANGS' only 2020 victory was Oct. 13 at Summerside Raceway; has hit board once in six tries at Mohawk since then, but makes his half-mile track return tonight; class relief and London's winningest post.
 
Race 2 – A late return to racing at age three, however (8) DIMANTE VIC hasn't made any breaks since adding trotting hobbles Oct. 13; apparent choice of Colin Kelly over #4 First Heir; coming in from second-tier post position after back-to-back win (at Western Fair) and place (at Flamboro) finishes from post #2; broke maiden in London debut last week for Kelly; late speed. (3) HOLIDAY DREAMS moved ambitiously first-over from fourth at the 1:02.4 half Nov. 27, but couldn't catch pacesetter Dream Deal; hung outside of Mass Amountof Wine (tonight's #7) on last turn, Scott Wray's filly stayed game and kept coming, ending up third as pocket-sitting Mass Amountof Wine saved ground up inside path. (6) CENTURY SEELSTER led the way through opening fractions here Nov. 27, ending up third as the now-absent Stormont Tim and Dimante Vic (#8 this race) took command; Shawn O'Brien is seeking first driving win of 2020, but the nine-time starter seems more likely to repeat that show finish. 
 
Race 3 – (2) CHALEURS AD makes second consecutive start with Lasix tonight; this field's winningest horse of 2020 (four) gains class relief as he drops down from Mohawk 12000clmhp, where he was a non-factor Nov. 27; he has just one seasonal victory over a half, back at Hanover Raceway June 27; his most recent half-mile oval effort was from Flamboro's outside post #8 Nov. 10, when he was first off the gate and crossed over aggressively at odds of 25/1, maintaining his lead until worn down from front-end battle with Old Buck; trainer Jason Ryan puts up catch driver Travis Henry this week. (3) THE LOAN RANGER has top driver Marc St. Louis Jr. aboard for the first time since their gate-to-wire Leamington victory Sept. 27; three-time seasonal winner has descended London class ladder from Preferred-3 level to tonight's more manageable group, but remains winless at this venue this year. (4) DALIATOR closes ground late and frequently gets show money; less success lately at added distance, like here Nov. 20, but in his return to regular mile, his closing ability makes him a must-use under top two.
 
Race 4 – (1) PAY LATER will breathe a sigh of relief at drawing the rail; the 8/5 beaten fave tried off-the-pace tactics against London 7000clmcd company for Austin Sorrie Nov. 20, taken back early and emerging first over from second-last after the 27.4 opening quarter; encountered traffic and raced very wide until too late to make a difference. (5) SHARK OUTTA WATER is evidently Scott Wray's choice over #2 Majo Rafiki, who he drove to a show finish here Nov. 20; it's an intriguing choice, because this pacer was taken back at the start despite having the inside post position Nov. 27, following closely in sixth to the 27.3 first quarter and getting the gradual shuffle to the back of the pack; ground-saving late move didn't help in added-distance event, but he could have something in reserve this time around. (3) SOUTHWIND MASIMO consistently gains ground late, even though he hasn't been hitting board; with class relief this week, Brett MacDonald could change that trend for back-class pacer closing in on $350,000 in lifetime earnings.
 
Race 5 – (4) LITERALLY HANOVER is undefeated at Western Fair's added-distance events; she's captured them for Darryl Thiessen Nov. 6 and 20, and closing ability keeps her dangerous tonight. (1) CENTURY GAGA is in perfect spot to attempt gate-to-wire trip, a tactic that class-dropping filly has used to full effect here Nov. 13 for Lorne House; beaten even-money fave put in steps Nov. 27, but held on for place behind the now-absent Delicate Taste; fifth in previous mile-and-a-sixteenth effort Nov. 20, from trailing post. (8) PANERAI has improved stamina when racing on Lasix her last two starts; second-tier post for filly who led early and faded late in Nov. 6 mile-and-a-sixteenth effort; she came back strong at the mile (and at a price) in her next two races for regular pilot Scott Wray. (7) LITTLEBEARCAT closed like crazy Nov. 27, advancing from eighth to second in the final quarter; Literally Hanover beat her that night, and outside post doesn't help chances of reversing that tonight, in this filly's first try at extra distance. (6) RUNAWAY HEIRESS closed for fourth at London Nov. 13 and 27, both at the mile distance; she's 11 for 16 in top-three finishes this year, although Manitoba import was seventh in her single attempt at added distance, back on Oct. 30, when she was not on the gate at the start; good effort third-over from last, closing very wide.
 
Race 6 – (7) LA TOUT PETITE is a longshot with potential; Suzanne Kerwood's class-dropping filly hasn't won since wiring Grand River Nw5000lcd trotters August 21, however she's been competing at The Raceway's Nw18000lcd level recently, and gets a class drop here; she's been just missing the top three in deeper company, most recently Nov. 20, when she took charge early at 22/1, then got covered up and shuffled along pylons before making second move on last turn; driver change to Scott Wray for her first start in a claiming race since Sept. 2. (2) MR ARCH gains class relief as he's closing in on the win for a returning Garrett Rooney; strong closer turned in place and show finishes, respectively, in previous two starts, overcoming second tier Nov. 27 and an early, unexplained break Nov. 13; co-fastest (32.2) closer in his last race. (5)  DUSTYLANE THUNDER has back-to-back Western Fair 15000clmcd victories for Paul MacKenzie; her lead diminished rapidly when Mr Arch came calling late in Nov. 27 mile.
 
Race 7 – (6) A POSITIVE HANOVER had a Bettors Delight half-brother sell for $125,000 at the Timonium yearling sale this year; former Pennsylvania Sires Stakes colt brings potential to fifth start at Western Fair; front-end-loving three-year-old gets class drop in return to mile distance tonight. (2)  ILOVEWHATIDO has late speed; closed for fourth Nov. 27, moving from sixth third-over on final turn, tail lashing as he passed horses with minimal urging; Colin Kelly stays loyal in gelding's second start since a scratch due to illness. (8) IRVINE JAMES makes third start in a row with Lasix; second-tier post for closer who's done best 2020 work at Leamington.
 
Race 8 – (7) LONEWOLF CURRIER has a half-million dollars in back class and is making second start in a row with Lasix; his three 2020 victories were at half-mile Grand River and Hanover, but he turned in a second-over move from fifth at the Western Fair half Nov. 20, tipping three-wide approaching the three-quarters; he tired in two-horse battle with Majo Rafiki down the stretch; driver change to Nat Day. (5) BETTER FLY BOY's best recent efforts have been London show finishes at added distance; his last win was at Leamington August 30; that was his only half-mile track victory in a meagre 3-for-67 career win tally; Travis Henry stays with Lindsey Kerr trainee who faces class hike that shouldn't offset his chances. (8) REDWHITEANDBOOTS drops into second tier from Flamboro, where his most recent finishes from trailing post #9 resulted in fourth-place finishes.
 
Race 9 – (1) WINE TYME went eighth to fourth in Nov. 20 Western Fair distaff $15,000 claiming company, her first start for Lorne House, who's back tonight. (6) KEMPENFELT is up in class, yet hasn't missed board since Oct. 18 here and at Flamboro; Daryl Thiessen catch drives, as Travis Henry is in the sulky of his own filly, #2 Peppa Pam. (4) SHESA ICE QUEEN nearly earned her first London victory in Nov. 18 F-Nw5000lcd event; outdueled by a neck, she came back at higher classification Nov. 27, fading late to sixth after following Century Gaga second-over from fourth.
 
Race 10 – (3) KASHE has been closing well and showing great form, even in recent defeats; Brett MacDonald drives again tonight; he was in the bike for mare's last two victories, Nov. 6 and 13 at Western Fair's Nw50000lcd classification. (4) TEN FOUR WE GONE is on a four-race London win streak, as the front-end-loving colt has had his favoured kind of trip; with Kashe drawing inside and getting class relief, that could change tonight. (7) SUPER T is almost always in the hunt; class relief from this track's Nw50000lcd level and a loyal Colin Kelly suggest top-three possibilities for closer who went undefeated at Western Fair last December, in two starts at regular and extra distance.
 
Race 11 – (2) LAND OF PARADISE closed well in last race and qualifier and looks like she's gearing up for her next win; three-year-old had her first victory of 2020 on Feb. 11 at Western Fair, claiming the earliest lead and battling back to regain it at the wire in 11/1 upset. (4) WAR DIAMOND and George Ketros were winning faves here at F-Nw15000l level Oct. 21, then faced interference in their next race; "good" surface proved tiring for Nov. 25 pacesetter; class drop. (6) KISS IT BETTER and Marc St. Louis Jr. wired London F-Nw15000l pacers Nov. 4, then followed the leader to a place finish on the class jump Nov. 18, up in class again this race. (1) CHASETHECLOUDSAWAY arrives here after qualifying twice at Mohawk this month, finishing fourth on both occasions; her best results have been on bigger tracks, and added distance is another question mark for fast filly driven by owner/trainer Gerald Lilley tonight. (5) SHADOW DREAMER hasn't won since March, when she enjoyed some Flamboro success in trio of wins for Paul MacKenzie, twice wiring small fields; Nick Steward drives front-end-loving mare in search of a trip.

Photo by John Watkins

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Melissa Keith is a lifelong harness handicapper/bettor, Hervey/O'Brien Media Excellence Award-winning writer, and occasional racecaller. She is a contributor to TROT, Hoof Beats, Atlantic Post Calls, and Harness Racing Update, often covering topics related to wagering. Her most memorable bets include taking down the Truro Raceway Pick-7 pool for a $36 investment (it has not been offered since) and collecting $1,287 for a Woodbine Harness Pick-4 which cost a whopping $1.60.
 

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