Best Bet – (1) – PERFECT DALIANCE – Race 3
Spot Play – (4) – NO WINE FOR YOU – Race 2
20-cent Early Pick 4 - Race 3 – 1,4/3,5,7/1,2,7/3,5 = $7.20
20-cent Late Pick 4 - Race 7 – 1,3,6/5,6,9/4,6/4,5,8 = $10.80
Race 1 – (4) SANTANNA TONY last won August 2, when facing Rideau Carleton Nw480pscd company; mild closer had post #4 on that occasion as well, transforming it into victory by battling Mortgage My Villa first-over for much of the 1:56.2 mile and holding off Every Girls Desire. (3) BET TILL DAWN lacks the solid credentials of this race's top pick, but is also among the few in this field pacing current sub-1:55 miles at this track; with five place finishes in 2020, but no victories or even photo finishes, his comfort zone doesn't seem to include the winners' circle. (6) DUTCH SEELSTER is off Lasix and Guy Gagnon did not win a race Sunday; these are factors to bear in mind as his odds drop; he's the fastest 2020 winner here, but his back-to-back 1:53-zone victories were both from the rail over a month ago, when the gelding started back on Lasix program.
Race 2 – (4) NO WINE FOR YOU's first 2020 win, February 17 at Pompano, was a front-end effort that nearly fell short when he drifted, tired, in deep stretch; February 25, he kept trotting when a first-over rival broke just ahead of him; that was the race where he set his 1:57.3 personal best; has not missed board on a 5/8-mile track this year and qualified competently behind breakers seeking redemption, who we'll be avoiding here. (3) ORLYS PRIDE duelled 45/1 winner Fierce Magic on last turn, losing ground late Sept. 24; he slowed dramatically and hung on for show, but the field's fastest Rideau winner (1:55.4 July 30) is 8 for 9 in on-the-board results this year. (5) DREAMEX started her pari-mutuel career here this season, and has since finished in the top three in 5 of 7 tries; steady-gaited mare has that advantage over the #1 and #2 this race, as do all the picks here.
Race 3 – (1) PERFECT DALIANCE is the lone two-time winner in this field, and one of the trio of four-year-old mares facing fillies; very good from inner post positions, like her most recent win: August 6 from post #1, a 1:55.4 off-the-pace effort that saw her defeat P H Impulse.(4) GRACE TOO was parked throughout her Sept. 19 place performance at Kawartha Downs; this is her best draw since her August 9 Rideau victory over distaff Nw7500l company, when she went from second-over fourth at the three-quarters to a hard-charging three-wide challenger down the stretch; Ryan Guy also showing improving form, hitting board in most of his drives Sunday. (2) BAYWATCHING exits stakes company, returning to track and classification where she scored her maiden 1:55.3 victory August 6; that going-away effort from post #7 was over a less-accomplished group than these.
Race 4 – (5) BEACH RUNNER A M was sent off at 12/1 Sept. 24; while he disappointed as a top-choice selection, his pocket ride behind pacesetting Barn One turned into a boxed-in trip; battled for space in the stretch, diving for passing lane and finishing fourth, just a length back of the winner; post positions from #6 and further out, or trailing post, in every other past performance line back to June 28; lone seasonal victory was courtesy of Feb. 16 stalking trip, from rail at Nw600pscd classification. (7) ITS EDS IDEA is the winningest pacer in this field in 2020, with all four victories at Rideau; tends to bounce the race after a win, so... (3) JUS CHILLIN IT drops in class and resumes Lasix; should be able to stalk close to front and hit ticket against these, rather than taking back early and trying a less-favourable overland effort from far back (again) this week.
Race 5 – (2) JULIO LAUXMONT scratched sick last time we liked him to win, but he's back, after a successful gate-to-wire Rideau Carleton qualifier Sept. 27; no room when he tried closing up the inside in his last race here, ending up fifth but timed in a personal 1:55.3; class and post relief. (7) SAULSBROOK PEACH seems a less-sweet prospect after disappointing as top choice a few too many times on his way down class ladder; he closed for place at Nw240pscd classification Sept. 24, no match for Its Eds Idea, yet still pacing his own 1:55.4 mile. (1) STATE NEWS is another class-dropper sporting a light, 10-race resume this year; steady improvements proportional to post position in last three outings, so with the rail, he seems top-three material.
Race 6 – (3) SOLEIL GRETZKY broke stride and equipment in a wild spin off the first turn Sept. 27; the beaten fave was a DNF, but gets shot at redemption and first seasonal Rideau Carleton victory from improved post on the class drop now; this is a deep group where various outcomes are possible, but if he's freewheeling up front, he could prove uncatchable. (5) ARRHYTHMOGENIC is the faster pacer when compared with Soleil Gretzky, but it's how he wins that puts him ahead of this mare; she should give chase, and if he makes any mistakes, the frequent 5/8-mile track winner with this field's fastest record (1:53.2) will catch him; third-over effort from last Sept. 24 put her fifth, timed in 1:54 flat. (8) LARRY IS DEBS ROCK is a tough enough closer that if early battle erupts and takes toll on known front-enders Soleil Gretzky and PH Impulse, post position and class jump will stand little chance of slowing his roll. (4) SHRIMP AND GRITS tends to pick up a cheque for at least minor shares, even when facing tough competition; with three fourth-place results in last four starts (and one fifth-place result), this does not seem unlikely tonight from inside post, class drop. (7) P H IMPULSE is in a tough situation, because mixing it up with Soleil Gretzky to land early lead seems dangerous; fifth when attempting a different kind of trip against Nw1r15000lcd rivals here Sept. 3.
Race 7 – (1) SOUND TRACK closed for place Sept. 24, getting past a tired and slowing Orlys Pride in the final strides; individual 1:57.2 clocking came close to matching his 1:57 flat record, in what was his sixth runner-up showing of the year. (6) FIERCE MAGIC proved almost everyone but Tyler Jones wrong last week, blasting from post #8 and winning in decisive front-end fashion in a new lifetime best of 1:57.1; first 2020 win was at Rideau July 9 for Pascal Berube, a stalking trip where he took down the pacesetting Orlys Pride. (3) TOUCHDOWN AS is down in class and has improved post after fourth-place finish Sept. 24; closed in 29.3, passing both Tea Bowl (#7 here) and Blitz Victory (#9 this race) late in the mile.
Race 8 – (9) RUB ME has back-to-back Rideau Carleton victories against similar in last two starts, winning in 1:54.1 Sept. 24; dependable closer should be able to deliver again. (5) GETYOURLICENSELIAM is Tyler Jones' apparent choice, over #7 Rain Man Blue Chip; two-year-old Control the Moment colt closed in 28 flat in Sept. 20 qualifier, finishing third; pari-mutuel debut against older horses, but with no evidence that he'll be overmatched. (6) WILD RIVER COYOTEE put in steps last week, recovered, and closed for place behind tonight's #9 Rub Me; three-year-old maiden has quick turn of foot, but light resume.
Race 9 – (4) TWIN B LAKER is down in class and well-positioned to turn his consistent sub-1:55 speed into a winning mile; narrowly missed Sept. 27, just a head behind Road Runner Colony in a personal 1:54 off-the-pace effort. (6) OFFICIALLY RUSTY has been on his "A" game in last two starts, winning for Jonathan Lachance here at Nw430pscd level Sept. 17, then responding to class jump last week with a respectable show finish; sub-28 second closing quarters in both those efforts. (3) THE ROADIES is a puzzling performer who won in 1:54 for Guy Gagnon from post #2 Sept. 20, then surrendered the lead and ended up seventh Sept. 27 for another driver; Gagnon is at the controls again here, but even with class relief, it's hard to say which version of The Roadies will show up.
Race 10 – (4) DEJA VU SEELSTER is co-second-fastest Rideau Carleton (1:55.4) winner of 2020 in this group; she's pacing sub-1:55 miles and giving the likes of P H Impulse, Jon Snow and G A Speed Joey (#8 here) a run for their money; the field's fastest closer appears to be closing in on a win. (8) G A SPEED JOEY wired this track's Nw1r15000lcd pacers in 1:54.4 August 27, from post #7; each of his three seasonal victories has followed a similar pacesetting template, which could leave him vulnerable. (2) MICHELE Z TAM has tagged along for show in each of her last three starts; little to indicate better or worse result tonight. (5) KEYSTONE NOLAN was runner-up to P H Impulse Sept. 24, closing in 28 flat in a 1:54.4 effort that shaved over a second off his recent clockings; loses Pascal Berube to #8 G A Speed Joey, though. (1) MONEY EARNED earned just one of her seven seasonal wins at Rideau Carleton, Sept. 3 in 1:56 stalking trip at Nw1r15000lcd classification; the seven-time 2020 winner draws well but faces competitive field.
*
Melissa Keith is a lifelong harness handicapper/bettor, Hervey/O'Brien Media Excellence Award-winning writer, and occasional racecaller. She is a contributor to TROT, Hoof Beats, Atlantic Post Calls, and Harness Racing Update, often covering topics related to wagering. Her most memorable bets include taking down the Truro Raceway Pick-7 pool for a $36 investment (it has not been offered since) and collecting $1,287 for a Woodbine Harness Pick-4 which cost a whopping $1.60.
More Tips from the Pros