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Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Thursday, November 26, 2020

Bet Now > Tips from the Pros > Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Thursday, November 26, 2020

Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Thursday, November 26, 2020

November 26, 2020
By Melissa Keith
Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Thursday, November 26, 2020
Spot Play – (2) – EAU NATURELLE – Race 3
Best Bet – (3) – MONEY EARNED – Race 5
20-cent Early Pick 4 - Race 3 – 1,2/1,6,7/3/1,2,6,7,8 = $6.00
20-cent Late Pick 4 - Race 9 – 1,3,5/1,3,6,8/4,5/7 = $4.80

 
Race 1 – Loved (5) GOALTENDER Nov. 19, and he nearly upset a pacesetting Asa Im Ready (#4 this race) with a second over move from fourth en route to the three-quarters; closed in field's-fastest 30 seconds, and likely won't be overlooked at 12/1 again; he's never won on a non-half-mile track, but his late speed puts him in the hunt again for trainer/driver Marie Claude Auger. (4) ASA IM READY is a seven-time 2020 winner and apparent top choice of Stephane Brosseau over #6 this race, Richsnortherndream, who won for him at Rideau Carleton's Nw1250l3cd level Nov. 22; post position #5 is statistically better than #4 for Ottawa trotters at the moment, but the front end has been very strong, so front-end-loving mare will undoubtedly remain a major threat. (2) YOU GO has concluded his Ontario Sires Stakes/Harvest Series season and returns from Mohawk; he last raced at Rideau August 27, when the three-year-old finished third in that Nw2r30000lcd event; has fared best on 5/8-mile tracks, taking a career-best mark of 2:00 flat at Kawartha Downs in gate-to-wire mission from post #8 on June 20, a week after his maiden victory at the same venue.
 
Race 2 – (2) JOURNALISTIC has found his best form again, with back-to-back Rideau Carleton place finishes for owner/trainer/driver Phil Reid Nov. 12 and 19; this field's fastest winner over this track (1:54 flat, paced June 18 for Mandy Archer/Guy Gagnon in gate-to-wire style) looks like he's closing in on a victory; down in class this week, with top rival Wild River Coyotee in the #8 hole this race. (4) TASK BAR HANOVER made late gains in his previous pair of starts, finishing third on the class drop to Nw1r17000lcd level Nov. 19; wired strong group of Nw1r15000lcd pacers here Nov. 5 in a lifetime-best 1:54.3; only three of ten Rideau winners Sunday were able to make front right off the gate and hold on until the wire, but he showed some versatility in off-the-pace maiden win here Sept. 3, so he's more than one-dimensional. (8) WILD RIVER COYOTEE has never won from further out than post #6; in that Oct. 1 victory, he and Guy Gagnon pocketed up behind his one serious rival, the 1/9 Rub Me, before winning the tightest of win photos; not to be overlooked, but proceed with caution.
 
Race 3 – (2) EAU NATURELLE looked ready to chase Batting Stats down the Rideau Carleton stretch Nov. 12, after following him second over from the half; the mare fell short by three open lengths, in rein to Stephane Pouliot that night; just one of her five wins this year was at this track, back on August 13, when she and Stephane Brosseau claimed the lead early and parked the first-up Batting Stats in setting her 1:57.2 career best; the other four victories were on halfs; closed well for show as longest (50/1) shot in Hippodrome 3R Preferred 1&2 Handicap Nov. 22; note class drop and return of catch driver Brosseau tonight. (1) THE MAGIC OF LIFE nearly beat Eau Naturelle in her lifetime-best mark-setting mile, closing strongly for place with owner/trainer Robert Robinson in the bike; since then, the gelding has recorded three Rideau wins, all for Robinson, most recently Oct. 15 at Nw1250l3cd classification; couldn't make progress third over from last in snowy "deteriorating conditions" Nov. 22. (4) UNDERCOVER STRIKE is up in class and back in same Rideau post position from which he won for trainer/driver Guy Gagnon Nov. 15 and closed for place Nov. 22 (as beaten fave); versatile, yet the 12-year-old has just one, 1:59.3, win this season.
 
Race 4 – (6) TROUBLEWATERSDEVIE would inspire greater confidence with a statistically-stronger catch driver instead of trainer Norm Beaudoin in the sulky, yet her record speaks for itself: the three-year-old arrives off back-to-back going-away victories at Hippodrome 3R, overpowering Nw1r2500lcd company for two different drivers Nov. 15 and 22; effortlessly parked heavily-urged first-over Stormy Jade Star, a 10-year-old stallion, while second fave Remy Aurora gapped in the pocket last week at Trois-Rivières. (7) SAULSBROOK OLYMPIA exceeded expectations in maiden victory Nov. 19, not just winning as a 9/1 top-choice selection from post #8, but winning by six-and-a-half lengths over tonight's #9 Grace Too; Tyler Jones stays with two-year-old who is making only her second start in restricted filly/mare company. (1) PERFECT DALIANCE burned out parking Powered by Mach (#8 this race) in her last pari-mutuel start, Nov. 19; she and that beaten 6/5 fave were both used up by duelling hard through opening fractions of 27.2 and 56.4.
 
Race 5 – Staying with (3) MONEY EARNED, who left aggressively from post #7 Nov. 19 (despite class climb), took command at the 28.3 first quarter, but had nothing left to offer when Wild River Coyotee came calling; better draw this time for mare who was an overlay in her Nov. 5 and 12 efforts against $7,000 claimers, a win at 11/1 and a nose loss at 14/1. (5) JANS LEGACY started from second tier Nov. 19, as Darcy Clancy piloted his own trainee to one of her best efforts; she was interfered with by Dutch Seelster, yet chased SOS Justified (#7 this race) steadily from second over, winding up third-placed-second; she didn't race like the 30/1 she was sent off at, and has twice this year wired Rideau Carleton pacers at higher classifications than this, each time with Clancy aboard. (7) SOS JUSTIFIED left hard and was first-over challenger to eventual winner Senior K at the 27.1 opening quarter Nov. 19, on a night when horses who were first or second in the early going won seven of ten races; he was parked in second all the way to the three-quarters, retreating to fourth in the stretch; elevated to show spot when place-finisher Dutch Seelster was set back for interference against others; retains Richard Simard for second consecutive start; his usual driver Tyler Jones is listed on #1 Mitt Jagger.
 
Race 6 – (8) DUTCH SEELSTER makes second start in a row with Lasix; set back to ninth (for interference) after place finish for owner/trainer/driver Guy Gagnon at Rideau 7000clmcd level Nov. 19; class relief for pacer whose last win was Oct. 1 from post #6 at this track, gate to wire for Gagnon. (6) E R RHONDA moves from trainer/driver Nick Boyd to Mandy Archer and Stephane Brosseau tonight for owner Cameron McQueen; has currently been racing on halfs, although all but one of her five 2020 wins have been on bigger tracks. (2) SHRIMP AND GRITS hasn't won since Sept. 3, but keeps Tyler Jones for second week in a row; punishing mile on the outside for Guy Gagnon Nov. 12, followed by a third-over voyage in a spread-out field Nov. 19; three-wide at the three-quarters when the camera lost the action, he finished eighth-placed-seventh but not without respectable performance. 
 
Race 7 – (6) DALI ON UP was boxed fifth as Free Proof (#5 this race) led the way to the half at Hippodrome 3R Nov. 22; Carol Voyer's 6/5 favourite had to circle rivals from last at the three-quarters, closing in 30.3 for show; they wired Rideau Carleton Nw615pscd rivals last Dec. 15, then won from off the pace over Op12000clm company at 24/1Dec. 22; consider yourself warned. (2) ITS ALL WORTH IT outperformed expectations to get his first win of 2020 last week in gate-to-wire style; Nw210pscd classification and rail boosted chances of nine-year-old whose previous win came at Rideau Carleton Dec. 22, 2019, in a nose-margin win at 40/1 courtesy of pocket trip and passing lane move against Nw850pscd pacers. (3) MISTYS DELIGHT was a 3/1 Rideau Carleton winner Nov. 12, capitalizing on an unsustainable 26.3 opening-quarter throwdown and 55.3 half cut by Bronson; used inside path to Nw210pscd victory from second tier; eighth on class climb to Nw450pscd Nov. 19, however.
 
Race 8 – (4) JEFFS JOURNEY won at Hippodrome 3R Nw750pscd classification Nov. 22 for owner/trainer Michel Allard; successful off-the-pace trip followed disappointing Nov. 19 Rideau Carleton finish after starting from post #8 in Nw450pscd company; better draw this week and Richard Simard returns to seek revenge with four-year-old who took 1:56.1 lifetime-best mark here this year. (2) WILDCAT CAM has a single victory this season, but five place finishes; Mandy Archer-owned/trained pacer keeps Guy Gagnon, gains class relief. (5) GOOD EYE HAWKEYE drops in from Mohawk in search of his first win of 2020; Stephane Brosseau drives Yves Tessier trainee, evidently selecting him over #3 Pantheon Seelster, who he reined to a win here Nov. 19. (3) PANTHEON SEELSTER has finished in top five in each of his three recent starts for Tyler Jones; up in class, but post relief and coming in off a confidence-boosting victory. (1) SASKABUSH STEVE has flipped the script here before, and with the rail, it's possible he gets involved; inconsistent but never forget he upset here at 60/1 for Stephane Pouliot in his second race after coming in from Manitoba Fair Circuit.
 
Race 9 – (3) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS won his last start for Marie Claude Auger, who's back in the bike this race; non-factor over "snowy" track from far back Nov. 22 and over "good" surface Nov. 15, he was at his best when waiting as duelling rivals burned each other out through a 27.1 opening quarter Nov. 1; while that was also on a "good" Rideau surface, he was well underway by the half, which was not the case in his two most recent races. (1) STATE NEWS is up in class and improving; a surprising second for Ryan Guy Nov. 19 at this track's Nw1550l3s level. (5) OSIRIS BLUE CHIP hasn't won since Oct. 22, when he and Guy Gagnon tripped out from the rail for a nose-margin win at 1/5 odds; seven-time 2020 winner gets class drop after last week's show result.
 
Race 10 – (8) ROYAL CANVAS could be a sleeper; he hasn't panned out for owner/trainer Randy Scott in his Rideau Carleton races dating back to August 13, when he first arrived after his seasonal-best 1:56.1 Georgian Downs victory; note that he debuted for latest owner/trainer Andre Champagne Nov. 15 at Hippodrome 3R, with mediocre results that he replicated there Nov. 22; then note that Stephane Brosseau is catch-driving the class-dropper this race. (6) COOL HAND LUCAN had an excuse Nov. 22, as he was interfered with and started from post #8; winless in 33 lifetime starts, the four-year-old retains Richard Simard for another try to break maiden in a formless group that's tough to figure. (3) NORTHERN JUNO is a class-climbing beaten fave who finished fourth for Guy Gagnon/Mandy Archer Nov. 19; hits the board more than most here, but last week's 1/9 odds were overly optimistic for two-time seasonal winner who has done best recent work at Hippodrome 3R.
 
Race 11 – At first glance, (5) SAVANNAH SPLENDOR seemingly bounced Nov. 19, which was disappointing because he had looked so promising after his Nov. 12 effort when he closed widest of all in the stretch, just missing top-three finish with his field's-fastest 28.4 last quarter; on closer observation, he was boxed in at back for much of his last race and trying to find room up the pylons; Marie Claude Auger picks up catch drive on free-legged class-dropper, still winless in 2020. (4) BRONSON just liked cutting the mile too much in his last two starts; class drop for John MacMillan-owned/trained four-year-old. (7) BANACEK won his Oct. 25 Rideau qualifier for Ryan Guy, yet lost ground late in subsequent pari-mutuel efforts for Guy Gagnon; three show finishes this year, including Nov. 19, from post #6; only pari-mutuel victory this year was March 8 at this venue, in stalking trip for Clarke Steacy. 
 
Race 12 – Loved (7) DOC DARRYL so much he was our Nov. 19 Best Bet; the second-time Lasix starter was third-over from fifth on the final turn, dodging breaker Lunar Launch (#4 this race) before simply running out of racetrack as leader Dance Machine got the win; dramatic improvement in closing speed Nov. 12, pacing a 28 flat last quarter, and improved position in the stretch for the first time since June. (2) FESTIVE JOE closed for show in the same Nov. 19 race; two-year-old with post #7 stepped up nicely, pacing second-fastest last quarter (30 flat); class/post relief. (6) OHBABYWEFOUNDLOVE exits distaff company and faces class climb here; hasn't raced since Nov. 12, when she lost ground late in surprising show result as beaten even-money fave, behind first-time winner Arielle Hanover. (9) TWO FOR TRIPPING will need to watch out for that and other hazards in second career start, departing from trailing post position; well-connected three-year-old was a passive Rideau runner-up back in March, and was beaten by tonight's #8 Little Willy after leading through early fractions of their Nov. 22 qualifier.  (1) STAR DOG arrives from Mohawk with a very light resume; Ryan Guy qualified him here Nov. 22, when he missed by a nose behind mare Perfect Daliance; four-year-old maiden hasn't raced since March.

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