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Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Thursday, October 7, 2021

Bet Now > Tips from the Pros > Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Thursday, October 7, 2021

Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Thursday, October 7, 2021

October 7, 2021
By Melissa Keith
Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Thursday, October 7, 2021
Best Bet – (5) JUST MY SHADOW – Race 7
Spot Play – (5) JESSICAS LEGACY – Race 10
20-cent Pick 5 – Race 5 – 3,7,8/2,6,7/5/2,3,4,6/1,2 = $14.40   
20-cent Early Pick 4 – Race 2 – 1,2,4/2,4/3,6/3,7,8 = $7.20
20-cent Middle Pick 4 – Race 4 – 3,6/3,7,8/6,7/3,5 = $4.80
20-cent Late Pick 4 – Race 6 – 2,6,7/1,3,5/2,3,4,6,9/1 = $9.00
20-cent Last Pick 4 – Race 8 – 2,3,4,6,9/1,2,7/5,7/2 = $6.00


Race 1 —  (6) NAVALNY has nearly as many wins this year as the rest of the field combined; paced more than three seconds faster than his career-best in last Thursday's place finish to the now-absent Four Finger Floyd; sent off at 30/1, he was much the best of the rest.  (2) STAR DOG followed Wisk Key K from second-over fifth en route to the three-quarters September 19; circled three-wide on last turn to chase down breakaway leader Saulsbrook Kaisen, timed in co-field's-fastest (28.4) last quarter; his two wins this year deployed stalking/off the pace tactics.  (1) DELLAS BOY is the fastest Rideau winner here; twice this summer, he wired Op10000clm company from an inside post; class drop, and significant driver change.
 
Race 2 —  (1) APEEPER HANOVER draws post that plays to her strengths; she won at 1/5 odds the last time she had Rideau rail in non-stakes competition; front-end-loving filly a good match for Guy Gagnon: they left aggressively from post 6 last Thursday, opting for single-file third and mild late bid.  (4) STEELMEATREASURE took the early lead that race and led at every step; new lifetime best in going-away effort.  (2) SHALLOW has been disappointing after big race at Kawartha Downs September 11; driver change for filly who paced fastest closing quarter last Thursday (29.2) despite trailing throughout mile; her Rideau wins have been with front-end or stalking trips, mostly for Stephane Brosseau, who's aboard his own #6 Artilla Hanover this race.
 
Race 3 —  (4) DEOLICIOUS is a four-year-old maiden, but one who nearly earned her first win here as 3/5 fave last Thursday; September 16, she drew outside post and jumped it off badly on first turn; parked three-wide early as 4/5 fave that start, she completely redeemed herself Sunday from rail, setting pace and showing real fight in the stretch.  (2) FARMERWHOSEMYDADDY was well back of win photo between Deolicious and Ohbabywefoundlove on Sunday, but gained ground as other rivals were fading late; maiden victory was with Stephane Brosseau driving; he's aboard  (3) KINNDER GRACE, who had an impressive late turn of foot despite being parked most of the mile at Hippodrome 3R last start; Brosseau's apparent choice over #7 Ys Big Girl and possibly others; he was in the sulky for her recent back-to-back 3R victories; uninspired September 9 Rideau debut for different driver, sitting fourth on pylons in strung-out field much of mile. 
 
Race 4 —  Maiden (6) PTITEBOULEDECHAFRA was nonetheless 3/5 fave last Thursday, accounting for 33% of win pool wagering in field of nine; followed the cover of Wellworththewait past the opening quarter, going three-wide from fourth at top of the stretch; just ran out of racetrack hunting down front-end winner Dean Street; closed in field's-fastest 28.4.  (3) MAJOR MOTION is back in line to Guy Gagnon, who drove him to first career victory in gate-to-wire performance here August 19; last start, he stalked Getyourlicenseliam from pocket, then attempted first-over move from third on last turn; tiring effort over tiring surface.  (5) HARDY MILL JOE broke when getting involved third over from far back last start; possibly jumped at shadows on track; has otherwise missed just one cheque in two years; should be closer to the pace in second try at Rideau, from same post but facing smaller field.
 
Race 5 —  (3) SKY SPIRIT beat Duke Lavictoire August 12, when that rival had to use off-the-pace tactics; last Thursday, Pierre Bovay's gelding was gaining on that even-money co-fave right to the wire.  (7) DUKE LAVICTOIRE took new personal best last Thursday on class drop, from this track's second-best post for trotters; front-end-loving gelding has tougher assignment from tonight's post.  (8) STORMONT MUFFIN is a closer with outermost post in a field of fast-leaving types who prefer front end; covered up and shuffled back to second-last past the opening quarter last start, she was boxed in until passing lane.  (2) AMIGO MIO picks up catch driver Guy Gagnon; his three prior wins were early this season for Samuel Fillion, who's not driving here tonight; closed for show behind top pair in identical 29.2 closing panel last week.  (5)  BETONAWHEELIN is returning from month-long layoff; qualifier didn't suggest a big comeback tonight, but she does retain Pascal Berube, who was in the bike for erratic-gaited filly's latest victory.
 
Race 6 —  Class-dropping maiden (6) BOARDING DOGS was first off the wings last Thursday, pocketing up behind Saulsbrook Velveta as she circled to take lead by the quarter pole; let go at 64/1, he was only overtaken in deep stretch by fast-closing beaten 2/5 fave  (7) ROLLIN WITH ROCK, whose first-over effort was from too far back to catch the going-away filly; second pari-mutuel start for team Archer/Gagnon.  (2) MONSTER MAGNET is a two-time Truro winner, with less success in early-career adventures at 5/8-mile The Meadows, where he broke leaving in two of three starts and failed to hit board; debut for latest owner and trainer.
 
Race 7 —  (5) JUST MY SHADOW stalked and closed for 7/1 upset in first Rideau start for Ryan Guy; back in Ottawa after week-over-week improvements at Mohawk, she's down in class and ready to strike.  (3) HOWMACFIESTY was a beaten spot play last Thursday, her third consecutive race where she took overland route; tonight, she and Richard Simard are back in same Rideau post as mare's most recent victory; late speed.  (1) THINKINGOFYOUBABE looks to set and maintain lively pace from rail again; tendency to bounce after each win this year at this track, even when not moving up in class.
 
Race 8 —  (6) LUNAR LAUNCH recently improved on class jump; stalker/closer got the shuffle last Thursday, but came home in field's co-fastest 29.1 for show; seems to be Ryan Guy's pick over  (3) CEASELESS, who was three-wide early, starting from post 8 in the same race; stretched out by pacesetting Isla Seelster (#7 this race) on her way to front in 27.1 opening quarter; came up empty when Three Trick Gainer came calling at three-quarters, fading out after tough effort against males; Mandy Archer trainee picks up new catch driver this week.  (2) HES GOT A VENDETTA shares similar winning style with Lunar Launch; back in line to Stéphane Brosseau, for whom he recorded all three 2021 Rideau wins; even after back-to-back Kawartha victories, the co-winningest (seven wins this year), he is no lock in a group this deep.
 
Race 9 —  (1) PASADENA STAR lands Rideau's second-best post for trotters; most recent victory was November 22, 2020, but tonight marks third race (second at reduced class level) in his latest comeback; first over from sixth headed to three-quarters last Thursday, he closed impressively in field's second-fastest 28.3.  (2) FIT BITT is win-averse stalker who is one of two horses in this field to hit board in at least half his starts this year; the other is Hippodrome 3R invader  (7) CHOO CHOO BLUE, who debuted here last Thursday; very wide at the start, leaving from same post as tonight, she was caught behind a breaking Jumpshot early and a stalling Boinganator late, as the front group got separation.
 
Race 10 —  (5) JESSICAS LEGACY is the last mare to defeat Ynothos, which she did four starts ago at this track; tonight, she has best Rideau post for pacers, after finishing third from the statistically-worst position; last Thursday, she was last at the three-quarters, but skimmed pylons to close in field's second-fastest 28.4.  (7) YNOTHOS has the gate speed and driver to make front from outside post; her seasonal record speaks for itself.  (8) COLD CREEK LACEY earned three of her four 2021 victories on half-mile tracks; recent claim drops in from Mohawk, where she was a beaten 3/2 fave for former trainer Richard Moreau last week; lands tough post yet still apparent choice of Pascal Berube over #6 Sophist and possibly others.
 
Race 11 —  (2) THE MAGIC OF LIFE is back at level similar to his most recent Ottawa victory; August 5, he and Robbie Robinson moved first over from third nearing the three-quarters, hunting down breakaway pacesetter Montanablackangel (#9 tonight) and sprinting away; he came third over from seventh on the way to the half September 23, closing widest of all for show over "good" surface; second consecutive start without trotting hopples.  (3) UNDERCOVER STRIKE has trainer Guy Gagnon back in the bike; caught wide leaving last Thursday; lost ground when Montanablackangel broke in his path; scratched injured before his September 23 start, the 13-year-old is this field's winningest horse this season (seven) and narrowly missed adding another two starts back.  (6) FIELD GUNNER shadowed frontrunning winner Cheque The Magic last Thursday; clear best of the rest that race, as the winner drew clear late.  (4)  VOLEUR DE BANQUE is unhoppled for second consecutive race; improved post for recent Hippodrome 3R arrival who hasn't missed a cheque here in three tries; loses Stephane Brosseau to his own trainee, the precariously-gaited class-dropper  (7) JUMPSHOT, the lone class-dropper here besides The Magic of Life.


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Melissa Keith is a lifelong harness handicapper/bettor, Hervey/O'Brien Media Excellence Award-winning writer, and occasional racecaller. She is a contributor to TROT, Hoof Beats, Atlantic Post Calls, and Harness Racing Update, often covering topics related to wagering. Her most memorable bets include taking down the Truro Raceway Pick-7 pool for a $36 investment (it has not been offered since) and collecting $1,287 for a Woodbine Harness Pick-4, which cost $1.60. 


Photo by Ryan Clements Photos
 
 

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