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Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, November 22, 2020

Bet Now > Tips from the Pros > Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, November 22, 2020

Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, November 22, 2020

November 22, 2020
By Melissa Keith
Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, November 22, 2020
Spot Play – (1) – TWIN B LAKER – Race 5
Best Bet – (1) – CAPTEUR DE REVE – Race 8
20-cent Early Pick 4 - Race 3 – 1,3,4/1,2/1,6/1,2,6 = $7.20
20-cent Late Pick 4 - Race 7 – 3,6/1,4/1,3,5/2,4,5 = $7.20

 
Race 1 – (6) CHEQUE THE MAGIC was second choice for this handicapper Nov. 15 at Rideau Carleton Nw4000l3cd level, because of significant class drop and good draw; instead, he chased Batting Stats from first over en route to the three-quarters, with that leader jumping it off at the top of the stretch in the headwinds and heavy rain; this field's winningest trotter of 2020 (five wins) encountered interference, and has every chance to find redemption tonight. (1) CASCADA set the pace in Rideau Nw1250l3cd trot last Sunday, but was picked off by Undercover Strike at the wire; even so, the 1:59.2 loss by a nose was a stronger finish than the two-time 2020 winner has shown since the Oct. 4 "not listed" Preferred Handicap, when Robert Robinson was also aboard, as he is again tonight. (2) ORLYS FURY has been better at Hippodrome 3R recently, winning in a gate-to-wire effort in the slop there Oct. 16; has hit board in two-thirds of his starts this year, but that 2:05.4 victory is surprisingly his lone win. 
 
Race 2 – (1) VANILLA MALTED drops in from "not listed" Preferred and gets rail for regular reinsman Clarke Steacy; dangerous on front end. (7) BIG PETES STYLE also likes to lead, but must cross over from outermost post; Guy Gagnon's gelding has the most wins this year in North America, 16. (3)  SAULSBROOK LANNY nearly caught Big Petes Style in that rival's 16th win of the season; the neck loss on Nov. 15 was over "good" surface, from second tier, on a night when front-end winners proved strongest in of 4 of 10 races, and were narrowly beaten at the wire in place finishes in 3 others; stamina and speed, but afflicted by seconditis since Sept. 17 win at this track's Nw690pscd classification.   
 
Race 3 – (1) ANGELS KID enjoys class/post relief and retains Tyler Jones; October "not listed" Preferred competitor last won Sept. 24 at Rideau Carleton's Nw1250l3cd level, with Jones in the sulky; outer post Nov. 15 did not help chances of his off-the-pace effort over "good" surface as #1 Hat Trick Marleau pulled away in the stretch for victory. (4) UNDERCOVER STRIKE and Guy Gagnon stole the win from leader Cascada in Nov. 15 Nw1250l3cd trot here, closing on a night where the front end fared better most races; it was the 4/5 favourite's first and only win of the year, in six tries; class drop and likely betting fave again...for fourth week in a row. (3) THE MAGIC OF LIFE returns for owner/trainer/driver Robert Robinson after solid 11-length qualifying win at this track Nov. 15, over Sometimes When (#5 this race); the breaking issues of his first two starts this month look resolved in time for tonight's class drop.
 
Race 4 – (1) REYS N A ROCKET and Richard Simard were narrowly second Nov. 15, closing behind front-end winner Sin City Shark (#6 this race) on a "good" surface that took its toll on closers; owner/trainer Robert Bernicky's mare retains the driver who was in the sulky for all but one of her six Rideau Carleton wins this year. (2)  ALWAYSYOURWAY was third to Reys N A Rocket and winner Sin City Shark last week, coming home second-over in a field's-fastest 29.3; trainer Marie Claude Auger claimed this improving pacer out of the Brian Jerome Memorial Series Oct. 25 and drives again here, in pursuit of first victory with pacer who has done best recent work for Simard. (6) SIN CITY SHARK is going for his fourth consecutive win tonight, meaning he'll probably be sent off at shorter odds than usual; third choice because his win margin dramatically decreased last start, and the top two picks tonight had tougher trips over the "good" track, but showed up strong in the stretch; note that two of this four-time 2020 winner's Ottawa victories were on "good" surface.
 
Race 5 – (1) TWIN B LAKER has had all these overland trips, and finally gets rail; that field's-fastest 28.3 closing quarter Nov. 15 hints at potential waiting to emerge, and he's back down to level where he's more competitive. Class drop for the classy (6) BESTOFBEST HANOVER, who has worked his way down the ladder from Rideau Carleton "not listed" Preferred to the Nw850pscd classification of his most recent victory, Oct. 11. (3) WILDCAT CAM is runner-up more often than anything else when he hits board; high win percentage team of Mandy Archer/Guy Gagnon send stalking-trip specialist in pursuit of pacesetters.
 
Race 6 – Look at how (2) THE ROADIES responded to this post position in his Nov. 15 and 19 efforts for Guy Gagnon; he's all but certain to leave again tonight, getting his favoured front-end trip; up in class, but Mandy Archer trainee retains the driver who is the only one to win with (1) LEVIS DAY here this year; Vic Puddy's class-dropper was seventh at this track's Nw4200l3cd classification Nov. 15 for Marie Claude Auger; lowest recent classification at Rideau. (6) MORTGAGE MY VILLA is evidently Clarke Steacy's pick over class-dropping #3 Lil More Money; unpredictable gelding had his only win of the year at Rideau Nw420pscd level for Steacy Oct. 22, but hit board in half his 23 starts this year. (4) CANADIAN EDITION and Stephane Brosseau get helpful class drop here; his only two seasonal victories were from post #1 and #2 at this venue, Sept 13 and Oct. 18, wiring rivals; predictability is his weakness; Brosseau's apparent choice over #7 Rose Run Slider. (8) JK ELLEM ENOH arrives from Alberta; no wins in two years and exits distaff company, yet parked and hard-used battling even-money fave first-over at Century Downs Nov. 7, and debuts for driver Robert Robinson here; minor shares with trip.
 
Race 7 – (6) NATIONAL DEBT gets the post advantage over his most persistent adversary this week: when Vegas Rocks (#7 in this "not listed" Preferred Handicap) has started from inside of National Debt, he's won four times since August 30, most recently Nov. 15, while National Debt has won just once when he's had a post position outside of Vegas Rocks. (3) LUKE AND DUKE led but was caught late by Avatar J (#5 this race) in their lower-classification 1-2 finish Nov. 15; had post #7 last week, but paced identical 1:56 flat mile to the half-length margin winner; owned/trained/driven by Guy Gagnon.  (7) VEGAS ROCKS has back-to-back wins for Stephane Brosseau at this level, but post position has been the great decider.
 
Race 8 – (1) CAPTEUR DE REVE has been best when starting from Rideau Carleton's post #1 and #2, even at "not listed" Preferred level; three consecutive wins here from those inside positions July 12, 19, and August 2, all gate-to-wire for Jonathan Lachance. (4) MR CONTESTANT has no Ace Bi or Lestenpercent to deal with in class drop from Rideau "not listed" Preferred company; likes to be on or near front end, a more realistic possibility tonight; Stephane Brosseau stays loyal. (3)  LMC MASS GEM is a fellow "not listed" Preferred trotter with class relief tonight; 17-for-28 in on-the-board results this season, he has a single 2020 victory, but can't be excluded from use in triactor and possibly exactor.
 
Race 9 – (1) PASSIONATE PRINCE and Pascal Berube were victorious from the Rideau Carleton rail at Nw450pscd level Nov. 5; set his 1:54.2 lifetime mark for Berube, then matched it on class climb with different driver at Op15000clm level Nov. 12; light on wins (just one in 2020), but Berube's back tonight. (5) LARRY IS DEBS ROCK is gaining ground late almost every race, whether extending his lead or eating into someone else's; runner-up to Dylans Bank (#3 this race) Nov. 12, he paced 28.4 last quarter that could put him past the likely favourite, as he's been able to beat some frequent winners like Double Down Duke and PH Impulse when underestimated. (3)  DYLANS BANK is the John MacMillan trainee with Stephane Brosseau in the sulky this race, not Three Trick Gainer (#4 here, with Guy Gagnon picking up the drive); those back-to-back 1:54-zone Rideau wins Nov. 5 and 12 might explain it; three-year-old colt took lifetime best 1:53,4 record here last week at Nw2r31000lcd classification.
 
Race 10 – (2) DARCEE N was parked in tiring "good" track conditions Nov. 15, and now drops from $12,000 claiming level to $10,000; driver change to Robert Robinson may bring back winning ways. (5) MATTS TUITION has trainer Guy Gagnon in the bike; late gains in last three starts; (4) MACH MESSIER retains Stephane Brosseau, as Mandy Archer's pacer with the 20-for-32 record of hitting board this year shows no departure from that trend. (3) BS TYRRIFIC is down in class and finally free of second tier or 8 hole, one of which he's had every start since Oct. 11. (7)  TOO MUCH DUNCAN finds himself further out than he's had to handle in his current lines; it's likely too much to expect a top-three finish from out here, however he's been in top five in 10 of his 13 Ottawa starts this season.

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Melissa Keith is a lifelong harness handicapper/bettor, Hervey/O'Brien Media Excellence Award-winning writer, and occasional racecaller. She is a contributor to TROT, Hoof Beats, Atlantic Post Calls, and Harness Racing Update, often covering topics related to wagering. Her most memorable bets include taking down the Truro Raceway Pick-7 pool for a $36 investment (it has not been offered since) and collecting $1,287 for a Woodbine Harness Pick-4 which cost a whopping $1.60.

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