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Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, October 18, 2020

Bet Now > Tips from the Pros > Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, October 18, 2020

Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, October 18, 2020

October 18, 2020
By Melissa Keith
Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, October 18, 2020
Spot Play – (5) – SPEED TO MARKET – Race 2
Best Bet – (4) – CHEQUE THE MAGIC – Race 7
20-cent Early Pick 4 - Race 3 – 4,5,8/2,5/1,6,7/2,9 = $7.20
20-cent Late Pick 4 - Race 7 – 4,7/1,2,5/4,6/2,3,4,9 = $9.60


Race 1 – (2) CARWINS SMORE won the Hard Rock Summer Claiming Series consolation Sept. 13, courtesy of a big three-wide move out of fifth nearing the three-quarters; that 1:56.3 romp on a "good" surface was by a nine-plus length margin, leaving a lasting impression even though he hasn't won since; third to winner Thundering Jim Oct. 11, gaining on place-finisher Its Eds Idea in final strides; third start for Marie-Claude Auger. (1) MISTER GODRO has descended the Rideau-Carleton class ladder from the Op15000clm classification he raced at a month ago; first up from third going to the half Oct. 11, he couldn't catch breakaway leader Mach Messier and stalled in the stretch, under urging; new trainer Stephane Pouliot drives in second consecutive start at Rideau's $10,000 claiming level where last week's beaten fave took his lifetime-best 1:53.1 August 13. (4) ALWAYSYOURWAY had post #8 in leg one of the Brian Jerome Fall Memorial Claiming Series Oct. 11, trying things first over from last at the half; stalled in the outer flow and backpedaling by the three-quarters, the former $7,000 claimer has a driver change (Clarke Steacy) in his third start at this level; last week was only the second time since his August 20 Rideau arrival that he didn't get a cheque, in a similar outer post/taken back at start/off-the-pace attempt.
 
Race 2 – (5) SPEED TO MARKET is back from Hippodrome 3R, and now reunited with Pascal Berube and Lasix; class relief from Preferred-1&3 Handicap for winningest pacer in this field, leaving from third-best post for Rideau Carleton pacers. (4) THE ROADIES finished a soundly-beaten eighth against Rideau Nw850pscd rivals Oct. 11; despite class drop tonight, it must be remembered that the Mandy Archer/Guy Gagnon campaigner has just 2 wins in 9 starts this year. (3) UBER HANOVER is apparent choice of Rodney Laframboise over #7 Twin B Laker here; first race since well-timed late move at Nw1250l3cd level produced a 1:56 flat win.
 
Race 3 – (8) DARCEE N is fastest 2020 winner of these (1:53.3 on Sept. 27); 7 victories from 27 starts, most recently Oct. 11 in opening week of Brian Jerome Memorial Fall Claiming Series, at a ridiculous 9/2; wired similar from outside post August 16 for Guy Gagnon; claimed last week and now racing for Stephane Pouliot. (5) MACH MESSIER was this column's first choice Oct. 11, before we were duped by the now-absent Mister Godro's credentials; naturally, "Mach" won with a front-end trip, edging out Barn One (#4 this race) in a 1:55.3 first leg of the Brian Jerome Memorial Series; six-time seasonal winner is (again) free of nemesis Reys N A Rocket, and regains Pascal Berube after a win engineered by Tyler Moore. (4) BARN ONE missed by a nose in off-the-pace effort Oct. 11; Anne-Marie Turenne trainee's only 2 wins this year were gate-to-wire 1:54-zone Rideau efforts Sept. 24 and 27; Richard Simard back in bike behind stablemate of #3 SOS Justified.
 
Race 4 – (5) PANTHEON SEELSTER delivered a show finish in first recent catch drive by Pascal Berube, a persistent first-over effort from post #7  Oct. 11, against Ottawa Nw1250l3cd pacers and 45/1 odds; pressed betting fave Dutch Seelster first over for much of the mile, putting away the pacesetter (who tired to last); never saw the rail through entire mile; lone 2020 victory was at this track August 9, a pocket trip behind Canadian Edition. (2) ROSE RUN SLIDER is evident choice of Stephane Brosseau, who handled tonight's #7 Keystone Prestige in a runner-up finish Oct. 15; stalked for a 1:55.2 victory at Rideau Carleton's Nw1250l3cd classification Oct. 15 with Brosseau aboard; class/post relief this race. (7) KEYSTONE PRESTIGE finished second Oct. 15, closing in 30.1 behind winner Stolen Art over "good" surface that tired frontrunner Its All Worth It; outperformed odds of 45/1 despite post #8; class jump.
 
Race 5 – (7) LESTENPERCENT doesn't play by the rules that downgrade a horse's chances from an outer post in a handicap race; back-to-back victories from post #8 in Rideau Carleton "not listed" Preferred Handicap indicate a formful trotter ready to add to his nine seasonal wins. (1) Y C BROADWAY went gate-to-wire for Richard Simard in Oct. 4 Rideau Nw2800l3cd trot; Simard is back in the bike for a fresh start from rail, after trailing post #9 hampered chances Oct. 11, his first recent try at this level; Simard's apparent choice over #4 Mr Contestant. (6) SEEYOU MEN finished second to pacer Night Club Hanover in a mixed-gait Oct. 11 qualifier, defeating three pacers and another trotter; Guy Gagnon's June 14 "not listed" Preferred Handicap winner is returning to first pari-mutuel race since he was scratched sick July 5.
 
Race 6 – (2) CANADIAN EDITION is dropping in from Oct. 4 Rideau Carleton "not listed" Preferred Handicap, where he left quickly but finished an overmatched sixth, individually timed in 1:53; wired Nw670pscd class here Sept. 13, when not dealing with the likes of Vegas Rocks and Avatar J; Clarke Steacy drove Kwik Talkin Oct. 4, but returns to the sulky of Blake Curran-owned/trained class-dropper seeking second seasonal victory. (9) MCJAGERSONTHEMOVE needed urging at top of the stretch Oct. 11, but did pass leader Wrangler Cash for the 1:54 victory; second tier tonight for class-climbing winner of six 2020 races. (4) ST LADS CASH flew home from fourth to second in the stretch Oct. 4; just two wins in 2020, the most recent here August 23, from post #2, at Nw890pscd classification; badly beaten fave Oct. 11, offering nothing and finishing last. (8) STONEBRIDGE BEACH gets class relief from challenging post; narrowly second Sept. 13 at Nw2750l3cd classification, although from post #3. (5) WOO SHARK has improved in each of his last three starts, all for Tyler Jones; up in class, but game to the wire in runner-up finish behind Ashleysbest (#4 this race) Oct. 15.
 
Race 7 – (4) CHEQUE THE MAGIC gains class/post relief this week; sixth when facing this race's other top three selections last week, but has won twice at double-digit odds over a favoured LMC Mass Gem (#6 this race) early this year at Rideau Carleton, and again August 30, each time when he drew inside that rival. (7) ANGELS KID didn't race like a 70/1 shot in his Oct. 11 "not listed" Preferred Handicap start; taken back early, he was a first-over fifth at the three-quarters, chasing winner Lestenpercent to the wire in a 29-flat last quarter (second-fastest of field); although fourth that race, it was against a much tougher group, and those who finished ahead of him aren't in the mix here. (6) LMC MASS GEM closed in 28.4, ending up fifth behind Angels Kid in Oct. 11 "not listed" Preferred Handicap; class drop for winless-in-2020 gelding with nine place finishes this season.
 
Race 8 – (2) CASSIUS has six wins this year, all but one over half-mile tracks; he started from post #7 and closed for fifth in Oct. 11 Brian Jerome Memorial Fall Claiming Series leg, individually-clocked in 1:55.1 with a field's-fastest 28.4 last quarter; he's here instead of Hippodrome 3R's card, so it can be assumed he didn't come to play around. (1) REYS N A ROCKET didn't win from rail in opening leg of this series, being left over a length behind the gate at the start; even so, she closed in 28.3 to get within a length of winner Darcee N and ended up third in tight decision over Cruise Captain; beaten fave. (5) GENESEE took the overland approach for a 1:53.2 victory at Rideau's $7,000 claiming level only three races ago, Sept. 24; Tyler Jones sent him first over from third in opening leg of this series, a bold move given the class hike Oct. 11; while the five-time 2020 winner couldn't make front and ended up sixth, he's the co-fastest 2020 winner in this field (along with Stelios, who won in 1:53.2 back in early July). 
 
Race 9 – (4) KWIK TALKIN finished seventh in Rideau Carleton "not listed" Preferred Handicap Oct. 4, struggling from off the pace after a start from post #7 on a surface rated "good"; note that he defeated Avatar J, Vegas Rocks, and National Debt Sept. 20, when he drew inside them and used a second-over effort to battle and edge out the latter at the wire. (6) AVATAR J closed for the win as Mandy Archer stablemate Vegas Rocks (#5 tonight) backed down Oct. 11; Guy Gagnon gets the catch drive tonight. (7) NATIONAL DEBT hasn't won from an outside post lately, but was only a neck back of winner Avatar J Oct. 11; tonight, he's even further outside, but his late brush makes him a must-use in top three picks.
 
Race 10 – (3) WESTERN PHIL has a win and a place to his credit in two October starts at Rideau Carleton; Stephane Brosseau stays loyal for third consecutive start; best draw yet for recent claim who just last week finished second to... (4) BIG PETES STYLE opened up by nearly two lengths in his Oct. 11 victory for Guy Gagnon, facing similar group.  (2) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE finished third from the rail for Melanie Plourde last outing; a 1:53.3 winner at lower classification Sept. 27. (9) BS TYRRIFIC remains winless in four recent Ottawa starts, most recently hampered by post #8 at same level; second-tier post helps pacer who's been a beaten fave in half his races since Sept. 20. (6) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS makes third start in a row with catch driver Marie-Claude Auger; fourth against these Oct. 11 on the class jump.

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Melissa Keith is a lifelong harness handicapper/bettor, Hervey/O'Brien Media Excellence Award-winning writer, and occasional racecaller. She is a contributor to TROT, Hoof Beats, Atlantic Post Calls, and Harness Racing Update, often covering topics related to wagering. Her most memorable bets include taking down the Truro Raceway Pick-7 pool for a $36 investment (it has not been offered since) and collecting $1,287 for a Woodbine Harness Pick-4 which cost a whopping $1.60. 

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