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Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, October 4, 2020

Bet Now > Tips from the Pros > Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, October 4, 2020

Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, October 4, 2020

October 4, 2020
By Melissa Keith
Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, October 4, 2020
Spot Play – (4) – SILVERADO – Race 8
Best Bet – (2) – HAT TRICK MARLEAU – Race 6
20-cent Early Pick 4 - Race 3 – 2,4,7/2,3,5/3/1,2,7 = $5.40
20-cent Late Pick 4 - Race 7 – 2,5/4,6/1,4/3,5,9 = $4.80


Race 1 – (5) MACHAHOLIC recorded gate-to-wire victories by wide margins at Truro Raceway, and now returns to Ontario; Mandy Archer has top win percentage among the major trainers at Rideau Carleton this season, so half-mile specialist gelding should be ready to add to his three 2020 wins. (4) STONEY CURTIS is winless this year, with five place finishes in 16 starts; tending to lose ground late in recent efforts. (3) T J THUNDER is only 2 years old, making his fifth career start this race; class relief accompanies his Ottawa debut for new conditioner John MacMillan; former Rob Fellows trainee was covered up and shuffled back to seventh in Sept. 28 race at Mohawk, yet still paced his mile in 1:54 flat.
 
Race 2 – (2) BS TYRRIFIC turned in a tough performance to grab the show spot as beaten fave Sept. 27 against Op15000clm pacers; better draw and class relief suggest seven-time 2020 winner can find the wire first in third consecutive Rideau Carleton start; Pascal Berube stays loyal. (6) SAULSBROOK LANNY shares #3 Badstormanyport's 1:53 flat seasonal-best win clocking, making them co-fastest winners of 2020 in this field; he also shares strong recent form, although the Mandy Archer trainee's most recent pair of gate-to-wire victories are at least partially attributable to Guy Gagnon; tonight, it's Rodney Laframboise at the lines, as Sept. 27 beaten fave looks to pass horses or extend lead late in mile, like he's done in every start last month.  (3) BADSTORMANYPORT has been hot lately, winning in 1:53.1 for tonight's driver Clarke Steacy against this track's Nw1500l3cd class Sept. 27; also, a 1:53 flat winner Sept. 24 for Richard Simard, he's enjoyed trips on/near front end, yet his wins come by slight or diminishing margins, leaving him vulnerable to a strong closer like this race's top pick.
 
Race 3 – (2) REYS N A ROCKET has back-to-back Rideau Carleton wins for Richard Simard, unleashing 28.3 last quarters to take down Mach Messier (#4 this race) and SOS Justified (#5 this race) when they tried to maintain their front-end advantage all the way to the wire. (4) MACH MESSIER last won for tonight's driver Pascal Berube in gate-to-wire style here August 20, against Op10000clm company; lacks the late speed of top-rated rival this race. (7) THUNDERING JIM hasn't missed board here since Sept. 6, when he debuted for owner/trainer John MacMillan following Scioto Downs campaign; last victories were at the Ohio 5/8-mile May 27 and June 3, wiring field from inside post positions.
 
Race 4 – (3) DARCEE N is Tyler Jones' apparent choice over #4 Musselsfrmbrussels; six-time seasonal winner deployed stalking tactics for Jones Sept. 27, taking down a pacesetting Chaleurs AD and holding off the late-charging (2) MYBROTHERGEORGE, who was beaten fave that race; overland trip resulted in show finish for closer with two 2020 victories, both at Mohawk. (5) WESTERN PHIL debuts for Mandy Archer, exits Mohawk after claim; second by a neck to Wildcat Cam last Oct. 27, leaving from Rideau post #6 at 14/1 odds; has not raced here in 2020, until now. 
 
Race 5 – (3) ASHLEYSBEST won gate-to-wire July 5 from Rideau Carleton post #2, setting a 1:53.4 seasonal best; he qualified successfully in similar style Sept. 20, only to fall prey to front-end battle in pari-mutuel competition Sept. 27, facing Nw2800l3cd company from post #7. (5) INDIGO SEELSTER upset as longest (11/1) shot on the board here Sept. 27; class drop following that 1:53.1 lifetime-best win, his second victory this year; he did benefit from extended front-end battle between Ashleysbest (#3 this race) and St Lads Cash that set up well for his off-the-pace effort. (2) UFDRAGONS ROCKET is dropping down class ladder again this week, but lacks the current late speed of others here; post hints at top-three stalking trip for Stephane Brosseau, but his one win in 2020 suggests minor shares.
 
Race 6 – (2) HAT TRICK MARLEAU was many lengths off the gate at the start on Sept. 27; in the video, he never appears to be offstride, just never getting involved; that was with catch driver Ted McDonald aboard the three-time 2020 winner who usually races with trainer Pierre Bovay in the bike, as he does tonight; while a distanced last, he gave chase throughout the mile, and deserves consideration after atypical performance. (7) MR CONTESTANT wired Rideau Nw1500l3cd company Sept. 17 from post #7, then went out and did it again at "not listed" Preferred Handicap level Sept. 27 from post #2; John MacMillan trainee retains Clarke Steacy, but losing post advantage at higher classification hurts. (1) ANGELS KID trotted to a three-length win margin over Nw1250l3cd rivals Sept. 24, his first victory at this venue since his accident back in March; up in class, but that 28.4 closing quarter makes him a realistic contender. (8) LESTENPERCENT closed in a field's-fastest 27.4 when he finished third from off the pace Sept. 27 behind tonight's #7 Mr Contestant and #6 L M C Mass Gem, both of whom move out from the posts that they had last week. (5) ACE BI has bounced after each of his three wins since August 23; stablemate #2 Hat Trick Marleau has better post and greater familiarity with Preferred-calibre competition.
 
Race 7 – (2) ATOMIC MILLION AM has two wins in 2020, July 12 and June 21, both at Rideau Carleton's Nw4000l3cd classification; each win was from post #4 with Richard Simard in the sulky, as he is tonight; second in July 19 "not listed" Preferred Handicap from same post as tonight. (5) VANILLA MALTED didn't get a win in two recent tries at Kawartha, but his 1:52.3 seasonal best matches that of this race's top choice; best recent effort was narrow place finish behind Kwik Talkin at Nw4100l3cd classification Sept. 13. (4) BESTOFBEST HANOVER closed for show Sept. 20 despite broken equipment; that effort was for owner/trainer Melanie Plourde, who's back in the bike behind four-time 2020 show finisher.
 
Race 8 – (4) SILVERADO has been improving dramatically while still somehow flying under the radar; gaining ground late in his miles, laying down impressive last quarters, and finishing second to #7 National Debt in his first try at "not listed" Preferred Handicap level (from same post as tonight) Sept. 27 subtly indicates this might be his week to step up. (6) KWIK TALKIN and Clarke Steacy are lone class droppers here; while Mohawk visit didn't pan out so well last week, his Sept. 13 and 20 efforts at this track definitely did, yielding off-the-pace victories in 1:53 and 1:53.1. (5) VEGAS ROCKS was fourth behind #6 Kwik Talkin when they last tangled Sept. 20; this field's fastest 2020 winner at Rideau (1:51.4) deserves respect despite the fact that his wins have all been front-end efforts that leave him vulnerable to the late speed this race.
 
Race 9 – (4) Y C BROADWAY never left pylons and was handled conservatively by Ryan Guy last week; ran out of room and time in the stretch, although he closed in 28.4 for fifth against a tougher group; Richard Simard picks up drive on class-dropper. (1) JUMPSHOT, on the basis of perfect Sept. 25 qualifier at Hippodrome 3R, a week after a literal rough start at Rideau, both for trainer/driver Stephane Brosseau. (6) CHEQUE THE MAGIC was third behind winner Ace Bi and runner-up Cascada at Nw2800l3cd level Sept. 27; his final quarter of 29.1 tells the true story of a trotter who was tiring and losing ground late, but well managed by trainer/driver Ted McDonald; class drop tonight.
 
Race 10 – (3) SHINE A LIGHT is a six-time seasonal winner with a sharp 1:53.3 record set at Rideau Carleton; helpful post for 3-year-old who made three-wide bid from too far back Sept. 27. (5) WILDCAT CAM gains class relief after struggles in Sept. 20 and 27 efforts here; Mandy Archer-owned and -trained pacer is still in pursuit of second 2020 win. (4) SINGHAMPTON KENNY is a frequent show finisher, with a 5-for-27 record when it comes to finishing third this year. (6) CARWINS SMORE lost Pascal Berube to #7 Windsun Cheyenne tonight, as Tyler Jones returns to drive; this is relevant because Berube mapped out all of Carwin Smore's top-three results since August 30, and the gelding has never hit board at this track for another driver since arriving August 13. (9) PANTHEON SEELSTER was a victim of outside draws Sept. 13 and 20, his most recent races at reduced classification; his one 2020 win was here August 9, facing Nw875pscd pacers; trailing post and catch driver Rodney Laframboise could bring helpful change of routine.

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Melissa Keith is a lifelong harness handicapper/bettor, Hervey/O'Brien Media Excellence Award-winning writer, and occasional racecaller. She is a contributor to TROT, Hoof Beats, Atlantic Post Calls, and Harness Racing Update, often covering topics related to wagering. Her most memorable bets include taking down the Truro Raceway Pick-7 pool for a $36 investment (-it has not been offered since) and collecting $1,287 for a Woodbine Harness Pick-4 which cost a whopping $1.60.
 

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