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Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, December 13, 2020

Bet Now > Tips from the Pros > Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, December 13, 2020

Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, December 13, 2020

December 13, 2020
By Melissa Keith
Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, December 13, 2020
Best Bet   – (1) – SAGALI – Race 7
Spot Play – (7) – KOLOY DM– Race 5
20-cent Early Pick 4 – Race 3 – 2,3,5/4,5/1,3,7/3,7 = $7.20
20-cent Middle Pick 4 - Race 7 – 1,4/5,6,7/6,7/1,9 = $4.80

20-cent Late Pick 4 – Race 12 - 1,3/6,8/2,5,6/3,5 = $4.80

Race 1 – (6) CAROLUZZO makes second start Lasix on the class drop this week; trailed throughout most of his most recent Rideau Carleton effort, Dec. 6 at Nw3000l3cd classification, with Samuel Fillion in the bike; veteran Richard Simard is at the controls tonight; horse's last win was at Hippodrome 3R Nov. 8, when he cut the 2:00.3-mile, parking first-up Bonfire Bash and keeping ahead of a wall of closers. (1) GOALTENDER and trainer/driver Marie Claude Auger were first off the gate, settling in behind  Montanablackangel (#4 this race) where he raced covered-up in fourth Dec. 6, at Rideau's Nw2r30000lcd trot; 1/2 beaten fave still closed in field-fastest 29.4 when he shook loose in stretch to chase Richsnortherndream (#9 this race) to the wire. (9) RICHSNORTHERNDREAM was out of fifth and moving first over at the half here Dec. 6, challenging leader Montanablackangel and opening up by the three-quarters for the gelding's third win in his three Rideau starts; second tier tonight for Mandy Archer/Guy Gagnon-campaigned trotter who arguably tripped out last start when the favorite was boxed in.
 
Race 2 – (8) CROSSFIT dominated in his Rideau Carleton debut Nov. 29, never looking back after he grabbed early lead in the "not listed" Preferred Handicap; Vic Puddy trainee has back class and is a 5/8-mile track specialist; driver change to Pascal Berube because Guy Gagnon drives his own trainee Seeyou Men (#7 tonight). (2) LESTENPERCENT has been assigned tough outer positions in many recent Preferred Handicap events at this track; when starting inside, as he did in Nov. 15 Preferred (post #5), he closed from last at the top of the stretch to finish a hard-charging runner-up to Ace Bi over "good" surface; third-over from seventh at the half Dec. 6, the 11-for-24 seasonal winner closed in co-field's-fastest 28.4; broke behind the gate and caught field early enough to be a contender, but finished sixth. (3)  HAT TRICK MARLEAU was second-placed-fourth for interference Dec. 6; like Crossfit, he also finds class drop here; dangerous on front end, although that rival will put him to the test.
 
Race 3 – (2) PASSIONATE PRINCE impressed in Rideau Carleton Op15000clm Nov. 22, bouncing back on the class drop to win in 1:55.3 the next week; Pascal Berube is back aboard following pacer's Dec. 2 dead-heat show finish at Western Fair; class and post relief for this field's fastest recent closer. (5) JOURNALISTIC is up in class, yet with current form so strong he can't be overlooked; stalker/closer has had a turnaround since Nov. 12, with three place finishes in a row for owner/trainer/driver Phil Reid; first race in two weeks; two 2020 wins were gate-to-wire at this track back in June. (3) LARRY IS DEBS ROCK was a beaten 3/5 fave Nov. 29 in Rideau Op15000clm; Richard Simard had him moving first over from third going to the 27.3 opening quarter, after which he battled Cassius (#8 this race) for command; the extended overland trip meant he was vulnerable to eventual winner Passionate Prince's (#2 this race) late speed; back at the level of his last victory, here on Oct. 15.
 
Race 4 – (4) STATE NEWS closed in a field's-fastest 29.2 for fifth on class jump to Nw4000l3cd here Dec. 6 with Ryan Guy, despite having post #8; both his 2020 victories were based on trips on/near front end from inside posts at this track; down in class with upset potential.  (5)  WINDSUN CHEYENNE departs from "not listed" Preferred company for this less-challenging group; last previous victory was at Rideau Nw650pscd level Nov. 12, grinding to the lead in the 27 flat opening quarter from post #8, pocketing up behind Prince Giovanni, and unleashing a second move up passing lane; Pascal Berube catch drives, as Stephane Brosseau is back with... (7) HOOTER SHOOTER, class-dropping in from Hippodrome 3R Preferred 1&2 Handicap; strong here last December at Nw2750l3cd classification, but no wins from this far out a post position here in 2020 to date.
 
Race 5 – (7) KOLOY DM faced Nw1r7500lcd males here Dec 6, finishing second to Two For Tripping; big off-the-pace effort for Samuel Fillion then, coming from seventh to second in the last quarter in a field's-fastest 29.2 that took her to the winner's wheel under the wire; teamed up with Pascal Berube now.  (3) SHEMAKSMEFELUNREAL has catch driver Steeven Genois joining her tonight, a week after successful stalking trip at Rideau Carleton distaff Nw1250l3cd level for Richard Simard; 1:58.1 victory was filly's fifth this year and just shy of her 1:58 lifetime best, also set at this venue. (1)  SOPHIES CAM is down from Hippodrome 3R's filly and mare Preferred-2&3 Handicap, which she won by a convincing margin in her last start, Nov. 22; Jonathan Lachance catch drives winningest mare in this field (seven) this year, who was ninth-placed-eighth against 7000clmcd males here from same inside post Nov. 19, when she was interfered with at the start.
 
Race 6 – (7) OSIRIS BLUE CHIP is riding a two-race win streak for Mandy Archer and Guy Gagnon; class drop for this field's winningest horse (nine) of 2020, who wired Rideau Carleton Nw1250l3cd rivals, starting from interior post positions, on Nov, 26 and 29. (3) CITY OF THE YEAR stalked for show here Nov. 29; adds catch driver Stephane Brosseau. (4)  MORTGAGE MY VILLA has 12 seasonal show finishes, most recently Nov. 29 at Ottawa Nw660pscd classification; up in class with regular reinsman Clarke Steacy in the sulky, his closing efforts deserve respect; all but one of those show finishes was at Rideau. .
 
Race 7 – (1) SAGALI drops down following back-to-back losses against Rideau Carleton Nw1250l3cd female and Op10000clm mixed company in her most recent starts; boxed badly in fourth and shuffled back Dec. 6, she cruised home in 29.3 for fifth behind winner   Shemaksmefelunreal; should romp with Pascale Berube back in the bike; he was aboard for her maiden-breaking victory here Nov, 5, from post #7 in distaff Nw1r8500l competition; late speed, deep closer. (4)  REMY AURORA vastly outperformed her 70/1 odds in Ottawa debut Dec. 6 for Pascal Berube; set sail early from post #7, racing near the front and ending up fourth behind rail horse Two For Tripping; she led to the 28.2 first quarter, but surrendered it to that eventual winner again by the half, shadowing him and fading in the stretch as he drew away. (3)  STAGE TERROR is four-year-old facing mostly younger rivals tonight; closed for show behind the now-absent Powered By Mach Dec. 6; maiden has 0-for-17 career record, but stalking trip likely gets her show money again despite class climb. 
 
Race 8 – (7) BLISSFULL FACTOR broke maiden here at age nine, in his lone win of the season, back on Oct. 29; that race, he started from post #6 for Darcy Clancy, wiring Rideau Carleton Nw1r8000lcd pacers in 1:57 flat; he's been a beaten fave at this track twice since then; class drop tonight.  (5) TWO FOR TRIPPING steps up in class after his Dec. 6 victory for Guy Gagnon; wired field after he took lead nearing half; was unable defend lead in qualifier here Nov. 22, so judge Mandy Archer's little-raced three-year-old accordingly in his fourth career start. (6)  ZAIDANS LUCK is lightly-raced three-year-old colt; show finish Dec. 6 at Rideau Nw1r7500lcd level, chasing Two For Tripping; it was his second straight start here for Marie Claude Auger, improving week over week. (2)  FESTIVE JOE is two-year-old who's up in class here; former NYSS Excelsior cheque-getter is a better fit in Ottawa, having hit board in both of his last two starts for owner.trainer/driver Robert Robinson. (3)  LITTLE WILLY was lost in the fog when he debuted from post #8 Nov. 26; class climb from better post for John MacMillan trainee.
 
Race 9 – (6) RACEMUP was scratched due to transportation issues Dec. 6; nearly upset winner National Debt (#8 this race) in their Rideau Carleton "not listed" Preferred match-up Nov. 29; Vic Puddy trainee has adapted well to Ottawa, never missing the board in four starts since arriving from Western Fair Nov. 8; closed in field's-fastest 28.2 last start. (7) VANILLA MALTED is too good right now; assigned post #7 following back-to-back-to-back victories from posts #1 and #2, making front is main challenge en route to authoring win #13 this year. (9)  VEGAS ROCKS follows out Mandy Archer stablemate #1 Avatar J from second tier; Stephane Brosseau stays loyal to gelding who closed in 28.4 from too far back to get better than fifth last outing.
 
Race 10 – (1) SENIOR K shouldn't surprise anyone if he can get favoured stalking or front-end trip from rail; Stephane Brosseau drives because Guy Gagnon is driving his own... (9) MATTS TUITION, who leaves from trailing post and faces class climb; stalking Senior K would set up for compelling battle later in the race. (4)  MISTER GODRO has seven show finishes this season; struggled from post #8 Dec. 6, however he was third in start from post #2 Nov. 29, coming from off the pace for Clarke Steacy in unthreatening pursuit of Senior K.
 
Race 11 – (6) BANACEK has shown steady improvement in results as he's dropped in class; tonight, he's back up from Rideau Carleton Nw265pscd level where he finished second as beaten even-money fave Nov. 29 for Guy Gagnon, after setting the pace throughout; Pascal Berube picks up catch drive. (2)  PRINCE GIOVANNI seldom wins, yet only #8 Sir Galahad has earned more this year; class drop after covered-up fifth-place result at Nw660pscd level Nov. 29. (9)  OHBABYOHBABYOH and Tyler Jones were second here Nov. 26 at Nw265pscd classification, leading early and being overtaken late by Cool Hand Lucan; good recent form.
 
Race 12 – (1) KAHLUA MORNING finished third when she was a top-choice Rideau Carleton selection Dec. 6, cutting mile but unable to hold off Shemaksmefelunreal; has four wins in 2020, two of them at this track; she captured the $22,100 Hard Rock Summer Claiming Series final for Guy Gagnon Sept. 13, shadowing pacesetter Chaleurs AD from the two hole and making perfect use of the passing lane; she took her lifetime-best 1:54.4 record here in a series leg August 30, the second-last time she drew the Rideau rail; both wins were over mixed fields of $7,000 claimers; won again from rail, Oct. 26 at Western Fair for Danielle and Marc St. Louis Jr. before making her return to trainer Mandy Archer. (3)  BARRYS SHELBY exited Mohawk for Ottawa Dec. 6, but landed post #8 (moved in to #7 after a rival scratched); he made the best of it for Pascal Berube, closing in field's-second-fastest 29.3 for show. (5)  KEYSTONE PRESTIGE has closed well to hit board in last three; late speed; retains Stephane Brosseau.
 
Race 13– (8) ROYAL CANVAS disappointed as top-choice pick Nov. 26; he had outer post that night too, in foggy Op10000clm company, and finished sixth; debuted for latest owner/trainer Andre Champagne Nov. 15 at Hippodrome 3R, with mediocre results that he replicated there Nov. 22; Guy Gagnon tries with the 2-for19 seasonal winner tonight, in light-on-victories bunch where that's the best win record of 2020. (6) COOL HAND LUCAN was judges' scratch due to undisclosed reasons at Western Fair Dec. 9; he had just broken maiden Nov. 26 at Rideau Carleton Op10000clm classification for Richard Simard, who's aboard #7 Bronson this race; Pascal Berube catch drives four-year-old who again lands the #6 hole, the same post position he had for career win #1. (7) BRONSON lost ground late in every start here last month; he's Simard's apparent choice over Cool Hand Lucan, but post #7 doesn't help chances on class climb.
 
Race 14 – (5) PRECIEUSE CC is down in class, following disappointing seventh-place result at this track's Nw2750l3cd trot Nov. 29; she led early, but the Hippodrome 3R invader fought Vero Amore Bi and Sir Chopin to get there in 28.3; she was done by the three-quarters, but this is the mare who wired Ottawa Nw1350l3cd trotters from the #8 hole August 27. (2)  FIERCE MAGIC was first up early in Rideau Nw3000l3cd trot Dec. 6, batting Keepall and then eventual winner Sir Chopin; held on for place in very tough effort for Tyler Jones; down in class. (6)  THE MAGIC OF LIFE was second at Rideau Nw1550l3cd level Dec. 6; Undercover Strike (#7 here) finished just a half-length ahead at the wire, but this trotter was ambitiously handled by Robert Robinson, sent second over from fourth before the first quarter; he took the lead at the half, fought off Ifihadabrain on the last turn, and fell prey to a passing lane move by Undercover Strike and Guy Gagnon.
 
Race 15– (3) BIG PETES STYLE was nosed out by Silverado Nov. 29, but is still winningest pacer in North America this year; class relief. (5) DYLANS BANK draws better on class jump; post #7 didn't agree with him at Rideau Nw2750l3cd level last week. (4)  BESTOFBEST HANOVER finds class drop this week after a narrow loss. (2) GUINNESS PANIC finished fourth for Ted McDonald in previous Ottawa effort from same post, Nov. 29 and 22; class climb. (6) SAULSBROOK LANNY consistently closes ground late; catch driver Pascal Berube takes lines from Stephane Brosseau, who evidently picked #5 Dylans Bank this race.

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Melissa Keith is a lifelong harness handicapper/bettor, Hervey/O'Brien Media Excellence Award-winning writer, and occasional racecaller. She is a contributor to TROT, Hoof Beats, Atlantic Post Calls, and Harness Racing Update, often covering topics related to wagering. Her most memorable bets include taking down the Truro Raceway Pick-7 pool for a $36 investment (it has not been offered since) and collecting $1,287 for a Woodbine Harness Pick-4 which cost a whopping $1.60.

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