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Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, November 29, 2020

Bet Now > Tips from the Pros > Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, November 29, 2020

Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, November 29, 2020

November 29, 2020
By Melissa Keith
Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Selections: Sunday, November 29, 2020
Spot Play – (1) – DR SPENGLER – Race 2
Best Bet – (5) – ANGELS KID – Race 9
20-cent Early Pick 4 - Race 3 – 3,6/1,3,5/1,3,4,7/1,7 = $9.60
20-cent Late Pick 4 - Race 11 – 1,2,4/1,2/1,3,9/4,5,8 = $10.80

Race 1 – (4) CANADIAN EDITION hasn't competed with this much class relief since Sept. 13, when the two-time 2020 winner wired Rideau Carleton Nw670pscd company over a "good" surface for Stephane Brosseau, who's aboard tonight; recent "not listed" Preferred Handicap pacer also went gate-to-wire here Oct. 18 for Clarke Steacy, the common denominator being front-end trips from interior post positions on a week when he was down in class; judges' scratch Nov. 22. (1) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS blasted through the fog in the stretch Nov. 26, charging home late for show in the fastest race of the night; individually timed in 1:56.1, he was gaining quickly on front-end winner Osiris Blue Chip (#3 this race) for Marie Claude Auger, who's back in the bike tonight; he's a closer who doesn't mind a "good" surface. (7) DALI ON UP missed by a nose in the fog Nov. 26 at Rideau's Nw450pscd classification; impressive at Hippodrome 3R Nov. 22, when Carol Voyer's 6/5 favourite had to circle rivals from last at the three-quarters, closing for show; wired Rideau Carleton Nw615pscd rivals last Dec. 15, then won from off the pace over Op12000clm company at 24/1 Dec. 22.
 
Race 2 – (1) DR SPENGLER has three 2020 victories at Mohawk, most recently in a $15,000 claiming handicap August 14 for trainer Richard Moreau, who still-co-owns with current conditioner Yannick Martel; second to tonight's #4 Sir Chopin Nov. 22 at Hippodrome 3R, he's been successful as a deep closer on the bigger track; adds high-percentage catch driver Pascal Berube. (5) ASA IM READY looks ready for revenge tonight; seven-time seasonal winner has best post position for Rideau Carleton trotters, plus top current rivals Montanablackangel and Goaltender aren't in the mix this race; vulnerable on front end, her usual style, with strong closer #1 Dr Spengler new to Rideau this week; both trot races Nov. 26 were won from off the pace. (4) SIR CHOPIN was a going-away winner at Hippodrome 3R in both of his last starts, facing Preferred-2/1&2 Handicap trotters Nov. 15 and 22 for owner/trainer/driver Carol Voyer; half-mile track specialist was first over from fourth June 13 at Georgian Downs, but couldn't make front and faded to seventh; good form but more speed required.
 
Race 3 – (3) GENESEE hasn't made a start since his unsuccessful effort from post #7 in the Brian Jerome Memorial Claiming Series final Nov. 1; reunited with Tyler Jones, for whom he's paced to half of his six seasonal wins since Sept. 24, including two preliminary legs of the Brian Jerome Series; late speed works to his advantage if track condition comparable to last Sunday: snowy and tiring for all but the strongest pacesetters. (6) SIN CITY SHARK gets class drop after fading to sixth in pacesetting effort at this track's $12,000 claiming level Nov. 22; Ryan Guy stays loyal to gelding who paced his fastest mile of 2020 two starts back, holding off Reys N A Rocket in a 1:55.1 front-end performance; note that the fastest races of the Rideau Carleton Thursday card were won in his favoured gate-to-wire fashion, while closers fared best in the trotting and slowest pacing races of the card. (7) MACH MESSIER is apparent choice of Stephane Brosseau over fellow Mandy Archer trainee Senior K (#4 this race); since he won with Senior K by four lengths in a going-away Nov. 19 victory over Rideau $7,000 claimers, but has opted for this $10,000 claimer with the outside post tonight, his confidence is convincing; all six of Mach Messier's wins this year were in Ottawa, for a variety of catch drivers, although he hasn't finished better than the show spot from this far out. 
 
Race 4 – (5) PASSIONATE PRINCE was a top-choice Rideau Carleton selection Nov. 22, based on his successful record with Pascal Berube, who steered him to a lifetime-best 1:54.2 win at this track's Nw450pscd classification Nov. 5; covered up in third and shuffled back to last in his most recent start, he was only two lengths behind gate-to-wire winner Dylans Bank at the finish, still battling traffic through the stretch; class drop. (1)  GENERAL LEE has been in great form lately, winning from off the pace here Nov. 12 and 15, and nearly catching leader Dylans Bank at the wire Nov. 22; class drop. (3) LARRY IS DEBS ROCK hasn't won since Oct. 15, but has hit board in half of his 36 seasonal starts; known for dependable late speed, yet note that his recent wins have all been on the front end or stalking trips, not overland efforts or big moves at the top of the stretch.
 
Race 5 – (4) REYS N A ROCKET got the win against similar class Nov. 22, drawing away from Alwaysyourway (#3 this race) by a length-and-a-quarter at the finish; reliable even on good/snowy surface, which is important lately at Rideau Carleton. (3) ALWAYSYOURWAY set the pace Nov. 22, but couldn't maintain command the way he did Oct. 25; has yet to win since claim by current owner/trainer/driver Marie Claude Auger, but hit board after moving from $15,000 claiming level to $12,000 in his two most recent starts. (1) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE has four 2020 victories in Rideau $12,000 claiming events; he won from the rail for Stephane Pouliot at this level on a class jump Sept. 27, parking Macho Polo through a 26.4 opening quarter and still gaining ground at the wire in the 1:53.3 mile; hasn't raced since last-place Oct. 18 finish for Melanie Plourde, facing $15,000 claimers.
 
Race 6 – (1) SILVERADO's last victory was Sept. 20 over Rideau Carleton Nw4600l3cd pacers, with regular reinsman Ryan Guy aboard... at 20/1; hasn't won at "not listed" Preferred Handicap level he worked his way into, and is descending class ladder to a place he looks very playable, especially after hard-fought show finish behind Avatar J Nov. 15; hasn't raced since then. (7) BIG PETES STYLE is down in class, with owner/trainer Guy Gagnon in the sulky; North America's winningest horse of 2020 finished third to Vanilla Malted Nov. 22 in the snow, also from post #7. (4)  SOMEWHERE BETTOR arrives from Hippodrome 3R Preferred-1&2 Handicap competition; class relief for closer who's endured some tough trips; half-mile track specialist; adds Pascal Berube.
 
Race 7 – An excitable (6) CROSSFIT jumped it off leaving at Mohawk Nov. 23, was claimed, and arrives back at a track with his favoured 5/8-mile dimension; Corey Callahan drove him to an impressive 1:54.2 win at Harrah's Philly August 13 at odds of 19/1; had a strong first-over brush for Andy Miller at Pocono Sept. 1, winning in 1:54.2 by three-and-a-half lengths; now trained by Vic Puddy, with Guy Gagnon in the bike, this four-year-old has the makings of a "not listed" Rideau Carleton Preferred winner. (5) HAT TRICK MARLEAU is evidently trainer Pierre Bovay's choice to drive tonight, as Ryan Guy is listed for stablemate #7 Ace Bi; back-to-back Rideau wins on front end, at lower classification; hasn't won this track's "not listed" Preferred, but has finished third three times from mid-pack post positions like tonight's; up in class. (2) MR CONTESTANT has a decent record at this level, plus a helpful post and Stephane Brosseau aboard; he was a winner for Guy Gagnon in his previous race from same post position, Nov. 1 against Rideau Nw2750l3cd trotters; a place finish the following week for Brosseau in the "not listed" Preferred Handicap suggests top-three possibilities here.
 
Race 8 – (3) LUKE AND DUKE is dropping in from Rideau Carleton "not listed" Preferred, where he was fifth on a snowy Nov. 22; squeezed between horses during a three-wide battle for the early lead, backed up to third and renewed a first-over attack from there for owner/trainer/driver Guy Gagnon; tired before the stretch drive, he had been sent off as 3/1 second choice to winner National Debt. (2) VANILLA MALTED and Clarke Steacy won together Oct. 25 against similar Nw4000l3cd group; the ten-time seasonal winner went gate-to-wire for Richard Simard Nov. 22 in 1:56.4, the fastest race of the card; up in class. (1) LEVIS DAY has been strong from inside posts, wiring Ottawa Nw1400l3cd pacers Nov. 22 for Marie Claude Auger, who drives her own Xternal (#6 this race); Ryan Guy picks up catch drive on Vic Puddy's class-climber. (9) STONEBRIDGE BEACH starts from second tier; stalked Vanilla Malted for runner-up result Nov. 22; rarely missed top five here this year. (8) DREYDL HANOVER took his career-best 1:52.2 record in a Rideau win this year, although he's spent most of his recent time in the Hippodrome 3R Preferred-1&2 Handicap; a going-away front-end winner for Samuel Fillion in both his most recent starts from the rail there, the outside post hurts tonight. 
 
Race 9 – (5) ANGELS KID pocketed up early behind Its Huw You Know (#2 this race) Nov. 22, ending up boxed in by the half and chasing home for fourth in the snow; his six seasonal victories are more than the rest of the field combined for 2020; very competitive at this classification. (2) ITS HUW YOU KNOW was an off-the-pace Rideau Nw1600l3cd winner Nov. 26 for trainer/driver Mike Healey, edging out 3/5 fave Undercover Strike in the fog; that was his second win in 24 tries this year, suggesting that he may not be a dependable choice to repeat, despite improving form. (1) POWERFUL GLARE is a Hippodrome 3R invader who's gone winless in eight tries this year; latest driver Jonathan Lachance elevates chances of class-climbing mare who's usually in the chase and has hit board in half her 2020 races.  
 
Race 10 – (3) ST LADS CASH finds class relief this week; has had time off since Nov. 15; addition of catch driver Richard Simard suggests that the August 23 Rideau Carleton Nw890pscd winner who found himself over his head in the "not listed" Preferred could be ready for a change in strategy. Mandy Archer's (2) WILDCAT CAM was a going-away winning fave Nov. 26, in Rideau Carleton Nw620pscd effort for Guy Gagnon; Stephane Brosseau gets catch drive on front-end-loving pacer who had his first victory of the year leaving from post #7 on Sept. 3. (4) STELIOS was claimed last week and now races for Guy Gagnon; a beaten 4/5 fave who was parked before the 27.2 opening quarter and finished fifth behind winner Cassius at Rideau Nov. 19 for Marie Claude Auger; up in class and hasn't visited winners' circle since July 5.
 
Race 11 – (2) VEGAS ROCKS draws inside National Debt (#4 this race) in a non-Handicap edition of the Rideau Carleton "not listed" Preferred; post #6 hurt in the snow Nov. 22, when he finished last after making a break; a going-away Preferred winner for Stephane Brosseau Nov. 8 from same post as tonight, racing on/near front throughout the mile. (1) KWIK TALKIN is a threat from the rail with Clarke Steacy in the sulky; they were off-the-pace Rideau Preferred winners Sept. 20, at 12/1; transportation scratch Nov. 22; covered up through much of Nov. 15 effort and lacked late pace in the 2-second variant footing. (4) NATIONAL DEBT was a strong winner Nov. 22, outpacing the hard-closing Racemup (#6 this race) in the stretch for a 1:57 romp through the snow; #2 Vegas Rocks remains his toughest opponent and has post advantage tonight. 
 
Race 12 – (1) BALI has been racing well for Stephane Brosseau in his three most recent races, here and at Hippodrome 3R; class jump, but this is a horse who missed by a neck from post #8 at Trois-Rivieres Nov. 15; dangerous on front end.  (2) TWIN B LAKER disappointed as a Nov. 22 Rideau spot play, but not by much; he and Tyler Jones finished third by just over a length at Nw850pscd classification, closing from fourth in heavy snow behind winner Officer Jones; he had drawn rail after series of difficult posts, and his Nov. 15 field's-fastest 28.3 closing quarter hinted at potential on last week's class drop; Pascal Berube catch drives. (5) WOO SHARK is apparent choice of Tyler Jones; up from the Nw670pscd level where they had place finish behind Mybrothergeorge Nov. 19 courtesy of stalking trip.
 
Race 13 – (3) SOS JUSTIFIED romped in the fog Nov. 26 at Rideau Carleton 7000clmcd classification; it was his second consecutive start for catch driver Richard Simard, who is back for more with the 13-time seasonal winner, facing $7,000 claiming company again from better post. (9) DUTCH SEELSTER cut the early fractions but came up empty when it mattered Nov. 26 for Guy Gagnon; starting from post #8 had something to do with that tired finish as did pacing a 56.3 half; beaten 9/5 fave in better spot from second tier. (1) SHRIMP AND GRITS was the gritty first-up challenger who looked Dutch Seelster in the eye and paced on by Nov. 26, dead-heating with Calgary Seelster (#5 here) for the 1:58.1 victory.
 
Race 14 – (8) SAGALI doesn't seem like she belongs here, as the three-year-old filly has been hitting the board with regularity since coming to Rideau Carleton, regardless of post position; Stephane Brosseau opts to drive J K Ellem Enoh (#5 this race), which means Pascal Berube--who drove filly to maiden victory here Nov. 5--is back in the bike. (4) BANACEK gets Guy Gagnon in class drop race, following back-to-back show finishes from outer posts in last two starts. (5) JK ELLEM ENOH was scratched last start, her 2020 Rideau debut, due to transportation; Alberta invader who's winless in two years has Stephane Brosseau and improved post draw this time. (1) SAVANNAH SPLENDOR seeks his first win of 2020, and redemption for those who still believe in his chances; a top-choice selection last Thursday on the basis of recent efforts, he could get no closer than six lengths of winner Singhampton Kenny in Rideau Nw265pscd class Nov. 26, finishing fifth; late speed that comes with no guarantees. (3) BRONSON hung on for place behind Singhampton Kenny in the same race Nov. 26; down in class; losing ground at end of recent miles.

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Melissa Keith is a lifelong harness handicapper/bettor, Hervey/O'Brien Media Excellence Award-winning writer, and occasional racecaller. She is a contributor to TROT, Hoof Beats, Atlantic Post Calls, and Harness Racing Update, often covering topics related to wagering. Her most memorable bets include taking down the Truro Raceway Pick-7 pool for a $36 investment (-it has not been offered since) and collecting $1,287 for a Woodbine Harness Pick-4 which cost a whopping $1.60. 
 

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