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Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Sunday, October 17, 2021

Bet Now > Tips from the Pros > Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Sunday, October 17, 2021

Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Sunday, October 17, 2021

October 17, 2021
By Melissa Keith
Melissa Keith’s Rideau Carleton Raceway Selections: Sunday, October 17, 2021
Best Bet – (6) SAULSBROOK KAISEN – Race 3
Spot Play – (2) BET TILL DAWN – Race 6
20-cent Pick 5 – Race 5 – 2,3,5,9/1,2,5/1/4/1,3,6 = $7.20
20-cent Early Pick 4 – Race 2 – 2,3/6/2,6,8/2,3,5,9 = $4.80
20-cent Middle Pick 4 – Race 4 – 2,6,8/2,3,5/1,2,5/1 = $5.40
20-cent Late Pick 4 – Race 7 – 1,3,5/4,5,6,8/1,3,6/1 = $7.20
20-cent Last Pick 4 – Race 9 – 1,3,6/1,6,7/2/4,7,8 = $5.40
 

Race 1 —  (2) STORMY HALL GB defeated Windsong Quincy (#4 here) in their most recent match-up; subsequently took new personal best, wiring similar competition August 29; last Sunday, he was second-over from fourth at top of stretch, behind now-absent winner Hes Got A Vendetta.  (4) WINDSONG QUINCY was a beaten 2/1 fave at Mohawk last start; he sat single-file fifth until the half, then came up short in stretch duel; returns to familiar connections and the scene of his last win, where stretch is nearly 400 feet shorter; note his five seasonal wins at this track were all at lower classifications.  (1) TASK BAR HANOVER was an off-the-pace 13/1 winner and 12/1 place finisher in his two class drops prior to last week; near back of field throughout last Sunday, he changed course late from passing lane to widest of all; upset potential. 
 
Race 2 —  (3) BET ON A DREAM and Pascal Berube won at this level four starts back, from identical post; disappointed in Coville Cup last Sunday, for different driver; Berube's apparent choice despite last week's maiden-breaking trip with Ptitebouledechafra (#6 this race).  (2) SPORTS BLISS is first-time Mandy Archer starter who won his latest start on a 5/8-mile track, taking new mark; first-over from second-last on second turn at Flamboro last start, he picked up and gapped cover, but showed brave second move chasing leaders home. Class-dropping  (4) NONEYABIZZNESS closed in co-field's-second-fastest 27.3 last Sunday for Clarke Steacy, who's aboard #7 Fern Hill Flight tonight; light resume, late speed.
 
Race 3 —  (6) SAULSBROOK KAISEN gets the class relief he needs to find his way back to winners' circle; fastest-record, winningest (six) of field this year; back with Richard Simard, for whom he wired in career-best, on class drop, from tonight's post position the last time they teamed up...at 4/1.  (1) ITS EDS IDEA set pace and was caught late on last Sunday's return to claiming level of latest win; while disappointing third as top-choice selection, he's evidently Samuel Fillion's pick over #2 Bankroll and possibly others here.  (3) MORTGAGE MY VILLA recently tripped out with perfect pocket ride to overtake Its Eds Idea; going-away winner has paced five of six races since claim in 1:54 or faster. 
 
Race 4 —  (6) WESTERN PHIL was caught between two leavers with similar gate speed last Sunday; covered up and shuffled back approaching the three-quarters, he hasn't won since September 12 claim away from trainer Anne-Marie Turenne; front-end-loving type will face those two leavers again here, but from different vantage point.  (2) THUNDERING JIM was winner of that early speed duel with Western Phil and Genesee; paid price as Genesee tripped out to pass him in stretch; beaten 1/9 fave.  (8) JACKSON K DOWN is apparent choice of Clarke Steacy over last Sunday's winner, Turenne stablemate Genesee (#3 here); recent runner-up for Steacy from post #7, unable to catch a gate-to-wire Western Phil. 
 
Race 5 —  (3) OFFICER JONES shows reliable late speed; back in line to Samuel Fillion, he's been pacing 4-5 seconds faster than his seasonal-best record in recent efforts.  (2) ART OF FIRE came home in field's-fastest 29.2 last Sunday; this is his best draw since Ottawa arrival. Versatile  (5) BIG PETES STYLE moves in from post 8; history of success from mid-pack posts this season; third-over from second-last at the half last start, he was circled by a three-wide Shine A Light on last turn; traffic jam in stretch.  (9) NIGHT CLUB HANOVER gets substantial class drop and second tier; loses Marie-Claude Auger to Atomic Million Am (#4 here) and tends to lose ground late; gate speed lets him follow  (1) MATTS TUITION, who wired for Guy Gagnon at lower classification two starts ago; unable to make inroads when up in class from rail last start; covered and shuffled back from pocket.
 
Race 6 —  (2) BET TILL DAWN gets catch driver Anne Marie Turenne, who sent Uno Cincuenta (#6 this race) up passing lane last Sunday, just missing board at odds of 62/1; those tactics combine well with this class-dropper's improved post and off-the-pace style, illustrated by his seventh-to-second result Thursday, flying home five-wide in a field's-fastest 29-flat. Beaten 3/5 fave in last week's Coville Cup leg,  (5) LUCKY LEONARD and Darcy Clancy left hard from rail to cut a 26.3 (!) opening panel; prompted by a first-over  (1) JON SNOW to the half; hard-used that race, driver change and rail suggest different trip tonight. 
 
Race 7 —  (1) VANILLA MALTED has the back class to take the pressure off his Coville Cup catch driver; Bernard Lavigne left aggressively with Bobbies Power Play last week, leading to top of stretch but giving way to late speed; massive post/class relief for pacer who is always tough on front end, even in Rideau Preferred.  (3) TWIN B LAKER draws well, following impressive place finish from post 7 in his Coville Cup leg last Sunday; trailed through hot early fractions, travelling up pylons behind Uno Cincuenta as Lucky Leonard set pace; impressive navigation through traffic in field's-fastest 30-flat.  (5) STATE NEWS recorded his first 2021 victory last Sunday, for William Roy, who's aboard #6 Pantheon Seelster here; Andrew Moore drove 11/1 longshot place finisher Fern Hill Flight in Coville Cup leg, closing in field's-fastest 29.4 behind this 4/5 winning favourite.
 
Race 8 —  (4) THE LIGHT SPEED draws inside toughest rivals in Preferred Handicap; beat National Debt from tonight's post last month; tried uncharacteristic off-the-pace strategy last Sunday, circling three-wide at the half to grab lead; maintained command until a deep-closing  (6) HITMAN HILL came home in field's-fastest 29 flat; loses Pascal Berube to  (8) NATIONAL DEBT, who hasn't faced a field this large since March 28, when he was second from same outside post; he won from #8 hole with second-over trip for Berube March 21, but that was with vulnerable pacesetter (15/1 Stonebridge Magnum) leading to three-quarters in sizzling 1:22.4.
 
Race 9 —  (6) LUNAR LAUNCH improved on late-September class jump; fast-closing recent class-dropper hasn't rewarded his backers lately, instead trailing and unleashing late speed a little too late; remains in rein to Samuel Fillion, for whom he delivered only win since leaving trainer Anne Marie Turenne, with big closing effort here September 9.  (3) THINK AGAIN won three starts last year, all at Rideau $12K claiming tag for Pascal Berube; winless on descent down Rideau class ladder this year, he adds catch driver Guy Gagnon for latest class drop; second over from fifth at the half last Sunday, he tired and faded on last turn.  (1) ST LADS CAPTAIN's only win this year was from an outside post; paced field's-co-fastest closing quarter (28.2) last Sunday, chasing winner Genesee home from four-wide.
 
Race 10 —  (1) FCEE N and Guy Gagnon from rail look simply too good, given their shared preference for front-end trips and six combined wins since July 29 claim. Class-dropping  (6) SPORTS JACKET is seemingly Pascal Berube's pick over #4 Bs Tyrrific; recorded his fastest 2021 victory, then matched the clocking in next race, where he never overcame tough outside post to begin typical overland effort; a closer with stamina.  (7) DYLANS BANK led through brisk early fractions last Sunday, putting away a persistent Outlaw Kismet (#5 tonight) in the stretch but setting up for Fcee N to sprint up passing lane to win photo finish.
 
Race 11 —  (2) THE REGULATOR was a little over his head at Preferred level last two starts; back where he's capable, especially with Guy Gagnon in the bike; must face fellow class-dropper  (5) MISSION BAY, who raced on/near the pace in latest victories at lower classifications; did not fare as well as The Regulator in one recent try at this track's Preferred Handicap.  (7) SHINE A LIGHT was last at the three-quarters last Sunday; came from out of the clouds in field's-co-fastest 27.4 for place; class jump and tough draw detract from impressive form.
 
Race 12 —  (4) GLOIRE DREAM is far from a sure thing, but there's something about all those place/show finishes for Samuel Fillion that suggests he'll hit at a price if others show vulnerability; last victory was at Mohawk October 31, 2020, when he followed the cover of recent Rideau winner Jumpshot and mowed him down at 5/2.  (8) CAPTEUR DE REVE doesn't mind an outside post; cruised to front-end lifetime best here last Sunday in Preferred Handicap; Steeven Genois stays understandably loyal.  (7) CROSSFIT's latest victories have been on front end as well, a strategy that didn't work so well with Capteur De Reve in the field; undeniable form, yet his closing capability hasn't taken down that rival in last two tries.  (6) RIPPED AND READY has been fourth in both of latest efforts from same post at this classification; beaten 6/5 fave last start; hasn't raced since October 3.  (5) RAISING RUSTY's nine seasonal wins do not include any Rideau Preferreds; he belongs, on account of deep-closing talent.
 
 
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Melissa Keith is a lifelong harness handicapper/bettor, Hervey/O'Brien Media Excellence Award-winning writer, and occasional racecaller. She is a contributor to TROT, Hoof Beats, Atlantic Post Calls, and Harness Racing Update, often covering topics related to wagering. Her most memorable bets include taking down the Truro Raceway Pick-7 pool for a $36 investment (it has not been offered since) and collecting $1,287 for a Woodbine Harness Pick-4, which cost $1.60.  
 

Photo by Ryan Clements Photos
 
 

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