Best Bet – (6) GEORGIAN DANCER – Race 3
Spot Play – (5) DECIMATOR – Race 4
Today's Play, Pick 4 (.20 cents, races 4-7): 2, 4, 5, 12 / 1, 9 / 1, 2, 5, 10 / 4, 7, 9 = $19.20
*Selections done for turf
Race 1 — Two-year-olds try a route distance for the first time, so this is a bit of a guess. (4) SIMILAR TASTE has many siblings who liked longer distances and he makes his second career start for the Mark Casse barn. (3) PATIO PARTY was steady in the stretch run to be second at seven furlongs last time and he is very logical. (2) WHEN WE CONNECT has the breeding to like the longer distance and his career debut outing was good. (6) MY REDEMPTION was behind Patio Party in that Sept. 12 sprint and his sire can give him stamina.
Race 2 — (4) ARTIE'S FIRST KISS gets the call to take this turf sprint, but there are several possibilities in the field. She pressed the pace in a race at seven furlongs on turf at one class higher last time and got a bit tired. She just needs to save more for the last furlong. (2) OLD SECRETS took her only career win on the turf and finally gets a chance to try the lawn again. (10) VESPOLINA is getting just her second start of the year and first since June, when third behind stakes winner Lorena. (7) OSTRACIZE is consistently good, and the one mile distance around two turns was a bit far for her last time.
Race 3 — This is a confusing race for low level claiming types. (6) GEORGIAN DANCER has been on the edges in all four races this year, twice when breaking from the rail post. She has a rider change, will have blinkers off and she has Beyer Figures good enough to end the winless streak. (7) BEARTHESTORM ran to her grass breeding when she won last time. She drops in class and returns to Tapeta. (8) MUSKOKA LADY drops to the bottom class level and that often leads to an improved run by a horse. She has been away since August. (3) BABY DRIVER finally won her maiden nine days ago and perhaps she will run back to that eye opener.
Race 4 — The Pick 4 begins with a very difficult seven furlong Tapeta allowance with a big field. (5) DECIMATOR has had bad luck this season, but the last time he raced seven furlongs on Tapeta he was third in a stakes race. I will also try (2) MIRACLE SILVER one more time even though he has not won in a couple of seasons and tends to stall in the last furlong. He was steadied several times in his latest on turf and rallied well but the early pace was slow. (4) ARI GOLD SPEEDWAGN is in good form and he earned his best Beyer Figure in a race at this distance. (12) NASHTRICK was claimed away from his breeder last time when he ran well after yet another layoff.
Race 5 — (1) DIRTY DANGLE has had a rough time since she went unbeaten in her first two races in 2020 including a stakes win at five furlongs on turf. She was doing better in June and July and she comes off a layoff, returning to a five furlong turf sprint. (9) SPANISH BALLERINA is very fast and she just about held on to win the Zadracarta Stakes last time but a champion caught her. She is very strong in this allowance race. (3) MAGICAL SOUL was impressive in her latest when winning at the first allowance class. (2) MILLENNIUM FORCE had a troubled beginning in the Zadracarta and she can pick up some pieces.
Race 6 — This is a wide open maiden 2-year-old filly race, but the stakes placed gal (10) THATSITTHATSALL will take plenty of support. She has been second in all three races at three different distances, and she just has to save more for the last furlong. (2) MIZ GEMMA ran well enough on the turf second time out that you could think she will be a prime factor. (1) PURE ELEGANCE was not beaten far in a short turf dash to begin her career and should like a bit more room and Tapeta. Of the first-time starters, (5) MUMBLEBEE is quick and has a long, stride and carries herself low to the ground. She is by Street Sense who is a good debut sire.
Race 7 — (9) MORE CHANCES makes his third start since a long layoff and could peak here as he drops to $25,000 maiden claiming. He ran very well in his return race, but was in a much faster race last time. (7) AWESOMECREST added Lasix and blinkers last time and led just before the finish line only to be caught. (4) SUN FORESTER improved when he moved to a two-turn race and he returns to grass and is worth a look. (6) JMR PURE SENSATION has been getting some tough trips on turf. Last time he was extremely wide off the turn and trying to catch up.
Race 8 — (4) JOIN THE DANCE is tough to go past as she posted a 75 Beyer Figure when third in her most recent race, her first try on Tapeta. The 1-1/16 miles distance should be fine for her. (7) PINK ORCHID was behind the top pick in her debut but is bred to love the longer distance on both sides of her pedigree. (5) STREGA was second in a race like this in early September. (2) LAST OFFENSE is a quick little gal and her dam is a full sister to Grade 1 winner Paynter.
Race 9 — The $100,000 Overskate Stakes on the inner turf will have a heavy favourite in (4) NOT SO QUIET who won this race last year. He comes off a win in the Vice Regent Stakes at a shorter distance with a big 98 Beyer Figure. (6) TOLD IT ALL put up a 96 Beyer Figure when he won in August but was not as effective last time on a less-than-firm turf. (1) DUN DRUM enjoys the inner turf course and he was a close fourth in this race last year. (7) FORESTER'S FORTUNE might not want a two-turn distance but he closed some ground behind the top pick in the Vice Regent.
Race 10 — Maiden fillies for $10,000 claiming completes the day and there are many ways you can go. (9) LIME SQUASH is an interesting beginner with some good prep times and two siblings who were stakes winners. (12) SILVER HEIGHTS drops and switched to Tapeta after beating a few in her debut. She had a good workout time on Tapeta since that opener. (6) KNEW AS A BREEZE returns to a sprint distance and she has been getting close. (13) FOREST VIXEN also drops in class and she could overcome the widest post and get involved. Also consider (4) COCOTARA who shortens up in distance.
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Jennifer Morrison has been a public handicapper for the Toronto Star, Globe & Mail and Daily Racing Form. She is currently a writer for CanadianThoroughbred.com, Blood-Horse and simulcast host for Ajax Downs.
Photo by John Watkins
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