Who will win the Breeders' Stakes Based on Previous Trends?
It may be 132 years old but the Breeders' Stakes always offers racing fans something sparkly and new when it comes to trying to pick a winner.
The third jewel of the OLG Canadian Triple Crown is a tough test for horse and rider and a unique handicapping puzzle as it challenges Canadian-bred three-year-olds to travel 1 1/2 miles, one tour around the famous E.P. Taylor turf course.
This year's field is a big one and of the 14 entrants currently in the main body of the field are: two horses who raced in both the King's Plate and Prince of Wales (Paramount Prince and Kaukokaipuu), the first two jewels of the Triple Crown; three fillies, including the Woodbine Oaks winner Elysian Field who was second in the Plate and three horses who have never tried the grass and those include Plate winner Paramount Prince.
With an average win payout of over $30 for the last 15 winners of the Breeders', there is surely a longshot waiting to be uncovered in this year's field for your wagers.
Keys to Winning the Breeders' Stakes
Turf / Distance
A liking for the grass is first and foremost and for the most part, entrants in the Breeders' will have already tried grass and done well on the surface.
Seven of the 14 entrants in this year's field have won on the grass, (2) British Artillery, (4) Hemlo Gold, (6) Tito's Calling, (8) Sammy Stone, (10) Philip My Dear, (13) Twowaycrossing and (14) Wickenheiser.
Of these, two of them won a stakes race on the grass.
The filly Tito's Calling, a daughter of Society's Chairman, won the 1 1/4 mile Wonder Where Stakes on the grass in her most recent race.
Philip My Dear, the 2022 Champion Two-Year-Old Colt in Canada, won the Cup & Saucer and Soaring Free Stakes on grass last season and he has yet to return to the turf since last season.
British Artillery, who won a grass race last year, is a full brother to the 2021 Breeders' Stakes winner British Royalty so the Barbara Minshall owned and trained gelding has a license to be a contender.
And Touch'n Ride, supplemented to the field at a cost of $12,500, is a half brother to the 2018 Breeders' winner Neepawa.
It is a rare occasion when the race is won by a horse who has never tried grass but last year's winner Sir for Sure, a 6 to 1 chance, did just that.
Trained by Mark Casse, Sir for Sure had won the Plate Trial and was third in the Plate on Tapeta and his sire, Sligo Bay (Ire) is a son of long-distance turf influence Sadler's Wells.
Paramount Prince, like Tito's Calling, is by Ontario stallion Society's Chairman, who loved the grass when he raced.
The dam of the Plate winner, however, Platinum Steel, was well beaten in her only grass race.
Chiefswood Stables' Simcoe is a son of the good grass sire Uncle Mo and his dam Aurora Lights, while unplaced in two grass races, has produced two turf winners.
Simcoe has been freshened since he finished 11th in the Plate Trial.
Tiburon, the third Breeders' entrant who has yet to try the turf, is by the young Kentucky stallion Good Magic, who currently has average statistics with turf winning offspring from starters.
Tiburon's dam Enoree was second once from four turf tries.
Most of the Breeders' starters have strong stamina breeding with only the hard trying gelding Kaukokaipuu, and maiden winners Hemlo Gold and Midnight in Malibu being a bit questionable at the 1 1/2 mile distance.
Equibase E Ratings
For this column I have looked at the E speed ratings by Equibase, earned by past Breeders' Stakes winners.
The majority of the last 15 Breeders' winners had posted a 90-95 E rating in his or her career up to that point.
From this year's Breeders' field, those horses include Kaukokaipuu, Tito's Calling, Paramount Prince, Touch'n Ride, Elysian Field and Twowaycrossing.
Trainer Trends
Duo Hall of Fame trainer Roger Attfield has won nine Breeders' Stakes, more than any other trainer.
He is the owner, trainer and breeder of longshot Twowaycrossing, who won his career debut on the grass last fall.
Mark Casse has won three Breeders', Catherine Day Phillips, trainer of Sammy Stone, has won two and other Breeders' winning trainers include Mike DePaulo and Barbara Minshall.
Contenders and Longshot Plays
Probable favourite (7) PARAMOUNT PRINCE is a tough three-year-old who has to be used in all positions in wagers. But he will be low odds and not worth including on top in your bets.
Win candidates in addition to the Plate winner are (10) PHILIP MY DEAR, (11) TOUCH'N RIDE and (12) ELYSIAN FIELD.
Longshot plays are (2) BRITISH ARTILLERY, (8) SAMMY STONE and (13) TWOWAYCROSSING.
133rd Breeders’ Stakes - Woodbine, Sunday, October 1, Race 9
Post – Horse – Jockey – Trainer
1 – Kaukokaipuu – Rico Walcott – Ted Holder
2 – British Artillery – Omar Moreno – Barbara Minshall
3 – Simcoe – Christopher Husbands – Katerina Vassilieva
4 – Hemlo Gold – Eswan Flores – Elizabeth Elder
5 – Tiburon – Leo Salles – Kevin Attard
6 – Tito’s Calling (S) – Emma-Jayne Wilson – Michael De Paulo
7 – Paramount Prince – Patrick Husbands – Mark Casse
8 – Sammy Stone – Ryan Munger – Catherine Day Phillips
9 – Midnight in Malibu – Luis Contreras – Sid Attard
10 – Philip My Dear – Justin Stein – Kevin Attard
11 – Touch ‘n Ride (S) – Kazushi Kimura – Layne Giliforte
12 – Elysian Field (S) – Sahin Civaci – Mark Casse
13 – Twowaycrossing – Keveh Nicholls – Roger Attfield
14 – Wickenheiser – Rafael Hernandez – Kevin Attard
AE 15 – Enjoythesilent (S) – Rafael Hernandez – Kevin Attard
AE 16 – Legal Catch – Daisuke Fukumoto – Michael De Paulo
AE 17 – Over and Ollie – Rico Walcott – Sid Attard
AE 18 – Greystone – Jason Hoyte – Sylvain Pion
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